It’s not Breeders’ Cup weekend yet, but the megabucks purse structure makes it feel that way. Kentucky Downs is handing out more than $14 million for Saturday’s 12-race card, with $13 million up for grabs in six stakes races.
In the nineties, the all-grass track in the middle of nowhere was a curiosity that drew little attention. Three decades later, it’s a destination for many of the best horses in North America. The lure of seven-figure payoffs also has motivated Europeans to journey to the Bluegrass State, motherland of the thoroughbred.
The old saying is “money makes the mare run,” and without bettors there would be no sport. Big fields and correspondingly high payoffs are irresistible to horseplayers, making Kentucky Downs a player’s paradise. Among Saturday’s six stakes, the lowest odds on a morning-line favorite are 3-1. As Flounder exclaimed in the movie “Animal House”: “Oh boy, is this great!”
Let’s see whether I can help you cash some tickets. Last week I connected at Kentucky Downs with three of four imaginary $50 win bets, one at odds of 8-5 and two at 2-1, all favorites. Well, better a short price than a long face, but I hope these predictions will be more lucrative. Here are my leading contenders in order of preference, with post positions and odds in parentheses:
Kentucky Downs is the ultimate “horses for courses” track, and frontrunner Stellify (post 6, 6-1) went wire to wire there last week going 1½ miles. She won her previous two starts at 1 1/8 and 1 3/8 miles, so the turnback should be no problem.
Beach Bomb (post 3, 9-2) is a proven stayer who won at 1 1/8 and 1 3/8 miles, and her tactical speed is a major plus. No Mo Candy (post 11, 6-1) won last fall at 1 3/16 miles and the extra furlong should suit her.
Brilliant Berti (post 7, 8-1) is a logical choice because he’s 4-for-5 at a mile and a course-and-distance winner. Cairo (post 3, 12-1), a live longshot with the field’s best class lines, has been in the money against European standouts Docklands, Rosallion and The Foxes. Cairo has seconditis (eight runner-up finishes in 19 starts), so he fits best underneath and belongs in all exotics. Lagynos (post 13, 4-1) is 2-for-3 at Kentucky Downs, where he dominated a listed stakes by 5¼ lengths last week.
New Century (post 7, 5-1) drops in class and gets his optimal distance (2-for-4). The turnback to one turn against lesser rivals should suit him. He won a Grade 1 at Woodbine last year at a one-turn mile.
Capitol Hill (post 12, 10-1) ran second to top 3-year-old turfer Zulu Kingdom two starts back in a Grade 3 mile. German shipper Namaron (post 1, 4-1) is the wild card. He’s a Group 3 winner who’s 4-for-4 in the money on grass and picks up superstar rider Flavien Prat. Watch the board to see whether he’s live.
Tabiti (post 5, 5-1) looks like a standout for top English trainer Ralph Beckett. She comes in off a 7-furlong win in a Group 3 at Goodwood and a close third in a 25-runner mile at Royal Ascot.
The horse to beat is versatile Kilwin (post 9, 4-1), a course-and-distance winner with a potent late kick. Favorite Shisospicy (post 10, 3-1) has the best early speed but could be compromised by the many other frontrunners.
The cutback from a mile to a sprint should aid Dream On (post 4, 6-1), whose fifth-place finish last time was partly due to a troubled trip. Spiced Up (post 8, 7-2) is a closing sprinter who can capitalize on expected hot pace. Out On Bail (post 11, 15-1) has been coming on late at 5½ furlongs. Pedigree (by Belmont Stakes hero Tiz the Law) says the extra furlong should help.
The card’s only Breeders' Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” race awards the winner a berth in the 1½-mile Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) on Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
Corruption (post 10, 6-1) is 5-for-9 on grass, with three wins at 1 3/8 miles or longer. Jose Ortiz, one of the country’s hottest jockeys, is 2-for-2 on him and could spring the upset. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides distance-loving El Rezeen (post 2, 8-1), and the brilliant brothers could team up for a juicy exacta. Utah Beach (post 7, 6-1) has four wins going 12 furlongs and fits well underneath.
