Key takeaways:
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, carrying a purse of $650,000, is Keeneland’s signature 2-year-old test at 1 1/16 miles on dirt, and it offers crucial “Win and You’re In” status to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, plus 10–5–3–2–1 Kentucky Derby points.
This year’s field of seven (post-positions included) is headlined by Ted Noffey, but also includes several stakes winners and logical challengers: Blackout Time, Big Dom, Diciassette, Spice Runner, Litmus Test, and (initially) Ewing (though Ewing scratched).
Because the Futurity is one of the first major two-turn tests for juveniles, stamina and tactical adaptability will be tested. Here are the three horses I believe have the best shot to win.
Ted Noffey is the heavy favorite, and with good cause. He enters off two commanding wins, the latest being an 8 1/2-length romp in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga, proving he can dominate on big stages. What makes him especially dangerous is the question of how well he handles two turns; the Breeders’ Futurity is his first real test over distance in that configuration.
His connections are as solid as they come: trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez, a veteran duo accustomed to navigating tough spots. If Ted Noffey can break cleanly and avoid early trouble, I expect him to settle into a comfortable spot, conserve energy, and pounce late.
The risk: two-turn experience is unproven, and sometimes heavy betting pressure leads to overexertion early. Also, if the pace is very slow, a horse with better turn of foot but less stamina might threaten. But as the “one to beat,” Ted Noffey is the logical single for win bettors and anchor of exacta/trifecta boxes.
Big Dom may not have the resume of Ted Noffey yet, but he is promising, especially from a betting perspective. He won convincingly in his debut (six furlongs) in a stalking-pounce style, suggesting he has tactical speed and a future stretch run.
Trainer Thomas Amoss and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. are a potent combination; Amoss is solid with juveniles, and Ortiz Jr. maximizes opportunities in tight spots. Big Dom has the pedigree to stretch out, which is essential in this 1 1/16 mile test.
If the pace is honest or a bit quick, Big Dom could settle off the leaders and threaten in the lane. He may not have the raw dominance of Ted Noffey, but he gives you a serious win threat with upside that might not be fully reflected in his odds.
One question: he has yet to face top stakes foes, and some may question whether his developmental curve is steep enough. But in a race where a single misstep can alter outcomes, Big Dom offers good value as a second choice.
If you’re looking for a sleeper with upside, Spice Runner is it. He enters off a Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes win, executing a closing rally, showing he can handle pressure and distance. He is by Gun Runner (the Hall of Famer), which gives him pedigree credibility for stamina and class.
In this field, he is often described as “the fourth-fastest 2-year-old by speed figures,” which hints that he’s close to this level already. If the early pace burns out, Spice Runner could benefit from a late, sustained kick. His closing style may play perfectly into a setup where front-runners collapse.
Caveats: he hasn’t run as much as some, and passing more seasoned types may expose deficiencies. Also, he’ll need a clean trip; jams or traffic could hamper him. But at 12-1, he’s an appealing value bet or exotic play.
The 2025 Breeders’ Futurity presents a compelling chess match of speed, stamina, and two-turn adjustment. The member who best handles the distance and pace dynamics will prevail.
These three constitute a logical core for win bets, exactas, and trifectas. In a juvenile race, surprises are always possible, but with careful pace analysis and trip projection, this trio gives the best shot to win on paper.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
