In the high-stakes world of Thoroughbred racing, the month of January serves as a violent filter. We are currently witnessing the first major tremors in the 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, where a single nose on the wire determines whether a colt remains a "Derby dream" or becomes a "Derby memory." As we approach the massive 50-point and 100-point shifts of the Championship Series, the current standings reveal a fascinating statistical anomaly.
While Ted Noffey (now out due to a bone bruise) sits comfortably at the summit with 40 points, a "bubble" has formed between positions 15 and 25. These horses possess just enough points to stay relevant but not enough to guarantee a stall at Churchill Downs.
The US Racing handicappers analyzed the current data to provide you with a deep dive into this 20-point bubble. If you want to maximize your returns, you must look past the obvious favorites and focus on the grinders and late bloomers currently fighting for their lives in the standings. Understanding these movements is the key to mastering the 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds before the public catches on.
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ted Noffey | Todd A. Pletcher | 40 |
| 2 | Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | 20 |
| 3 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 19 |
| 4 | Mr. A.P. | Vladimir Cerin | 15 |
| 5 | Chip Honcho | Steven M. Asmussen | 14 |
| 6 | Universe | Kenneth G. McPeek | 13 |
| 7 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 13 |
| 8 | Spice Runner | Steven M. Asmussen | 11 |
| 9 | Paladin | Chad C. Brown | 10 |
| 10 | Further Ado | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 10 |
| 12 | Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 10 |
| 13 | Express Kid | Wade Rarick | 10 |
| 14 | My World | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 15 | Strategic Risk | Mark E. Casse | 10 |
| 16 | Mesquite | Cherie DeVaux | 10 |
| 17 | Brant | Bob Baffert | 9 |
| 18 | Balboa | Brittany T. Russell | 9 |
| 19 | Very Connected | Kenneth G. McPeek | 6 |
| 20 | Carson Street | Brendan P. Walsh | 6 |
Last Updated on 01/21/2026
The current Kentucky Derby leaderboard shows a logjam of talent that requires surgical precision to navigate. In position 15, we find Strategic Risk with 10 points, followed closely by Mesquite (10) and Brant (9). Down at 18, Balboa holds 9 points, while Very Connected and Carson Street round out the top 20 with 6 points each. This section of the standings represents the "20-point bubble." Historically, a horse needs roughly 25 to 35 points to safely enter the gate, meaning every horse in this bracket remains one significant performance away from total security or total exclusion.
We see a massive disparity in how these horses earned their keep. Some, like Strategic Risk, secured a 10-point win in a single prep race. Others, like Balboa, have methodically collected minor awards across multiple starts. When you look at 2026 Kentucky Derby betting odds, you must distinguish between the "one-hit wonders" and the "consistent grinders." The grinders often possess the physical foundation necessary to handle the 10-furlong classic distance, even if their current point total looks modest.
If you are looking for Kentucky Derby contenders ready to explode into the elite tier, look no further than Balboa and Incredibolt. Incredibolt currently sits at position 11 with 10 points following a gutsy win in the Street Sense Stakes. His speed figures show a vertical trajectory; he improved his Equibase rating from a 78 in his debut to a 94 in his latest victory. He targets the Holy Bull Stakes on January 31, where a win would add 20 points to his total, vaulting him past Litmus Test and Golden Tempo into the overall Top 3.
Balboa presents an even more intriguing case for those who bet on Kentucky Derby online. Occupying the 18th spot with 9 points, he recently finished a hard-fought second in the Jerome Stakes. While he hasn't captured a major trophy yet, his Beyer speed figures have increased in four consecutive starts. He possesses the "closing kick" that professional analysts crave. A first-place finish in his next scheduled start—the Withers Stakes—would grant him 20 points. This move would propel him from the bottom of the qualified field straight into the Top 5, drastically altering the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting landscape overnight.
Smart money identifies value before the odds shorten. I am placing a "Buy" label on Incredibolt and Strategic Risk. Incredibolt has the pedigree (by Bolt d'Oro) and the tactical speed to survive the chaotic opening quarter-mile of the Derby. His 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds currently hover around 22-1 or 30-1, depending on the bookmaker, which is an absolute steal for a horse with his upside. Strategic Risk also fits the "Buy" profile because trainer Mark Casse has managed his campaign with extreme patience. His 10 points from the Smarty Jones Stakes are just the beginning of his climb.
We could officially issue a "Sell" warning on Mr. A.P. and Napoleon Solo. Mr. A.P. currently occupies the 4th spot with 15 points, but recent reports indicate a minor training setback. In the world of Kentucky Derby prep races, any loss of fitness in January is often fatal to May ambitions. Napoleon Solo (10 points) won the Champagne Stakes with a front-running style that likely won't hold up as the distances stretch to 1 1/8 and 1 1/4 miles. He is a brilliant miler, but the Derby is not a mile race. Fade these two in the future pools to protect your bankroll.
We should "Hold" our positions on the Bob Baffert duo, Litmus Test (19 points), and Brant (9 points). While Baffert always brings elite talent to the table, the legal and eligibility nuances surrounding his runners often create volatility in the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting markets. Litmus Test has proven he can compete with the best, having finished just behind Ted Noffey in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, until we see him handle the transition to the 3-year-old season with a win, his current price offers little "value." Keep them on your radar, but wait for the next speed figure before doubling down.
The leaderboard you see today will look unrecognizable by the end of February. The "Prep Season" ends and the "Championship Series" begins on February 14 with the Risen Star Stakes. This race offers a 50-25-15-10-5 point distribution. A horse like Very Connected, who currently sits at position 19 with only 6 points, could theoretically jump to 56 points with a single win. That move would likely secure him a top-two spot on the entire Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Handicappers must track the Kentucky Derby prep races occurring in early February with extreme discipline. The Holy Bull, the Southwest, and the Sam F. Davis Stakes all offer 20 points to the winner. These races act as the final "on-ramp" for horses in the 15–25 bubble. If a horse fails to score here, they are forced into the "must-win" scenario of the 100-point races in March and April. I suggest looking for horses that show "late interest" in their races; those who finish fast, even if they don't win often, provide the best long-term value for 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds.
When you evaluate Kentucky Derby contenders in the middle of the pack, you must look at their sire lines. For instance, Carson Street (currently 20th) traces its lineage to late-season stamina. He does not need early points to prove he belongs; he needs the distance to catch up to the early speedsters. Analysts often overlook these horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds because they lack the flash of a stakes winner. However, as the prep races move from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, the "sprint-style" winners usually fade.
We always look for horses that maintain a steady stride frequency through the stretch. Very Connected is a prime example of a horse that "outruns" his current point total. While he only has 6 points, his gallop-out after his last two races was stronger than the actual winners. Smart players who bet on Kentucky Derby online use this data to identify "The Leap" candidates. If a horse finishes fourth in a 10-point race but gains four lengths in the final furlong, you are looking at a future 100-point contender.
We no longer rely solely on "the eye test." Modern Kentucky Derby betting requires a deep understanding of variant-adjusted speed ratings. In the 15-25 bubble, the ratings are currently volatile. Strategic Risk has a lower peak speed than Napoleon Solo, but Strategic Risk runs his best races on fast tracks with high temperatures. Since the Derby often takes place in humid conditions, his environmental data suggests he will outperform his 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds.
We monitor frequently the "TimeformUS" ratings for the upcoming Kentucky Derby prep races closely. If any horse in the 20-point bubble posts a rating above 115, you must bet them immediately. Historically, a 115+ rating in February correlates with a Top 3 finish in the Kentucky Derby leaderboard by April. We are essentially hunting for the "Alpha" in the middle of the pack. The market overreacts to the current leaders, allowing you to capture huge prices on the statistically superior mid-tier colts.
To turn this analysis into profit, you must act before the "Selection Sunday" of horse racing. The 2026 Kentucky Derby betting pools offer massive rewards for those who can project the leaderboard shifts three months in advance. Look for the horses currently "under the radar" in positions 15 through 25. These are the athletes that the casual betting public hasn't memorized yet. When a horse like Balboa or Incredibolt makes that 20-point jump, their odds will plummet from 40-1 to 12-1 in a matter of hours.
You should regularly check the updated Kentucky Derby future wagering pools to see if the bookmakers have adjusted for recent workouts. A "bullet" workout at Palm Meadows or Santa Anita often precedes a massive leaderboard jump. By monitoring the "bubble," you aren't just betting on a horse; you are betting on a statistical probability. The data tells us that at least three horses currently ranked outside the top 15 will finish in the Top 5 by the first Saturday in May.
The road to Churchill Downs is paved with broken tickets and missed opportunities, but for the informed gambler, it is the greatest wealth-building event in sports. The "20-point bubble" is where the real money is made. Don't wait until the paddock call on May 2 to make your move. The most lucrative 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds are available right now for those bold enough to trust the data and the "Buy" list.
Are you ready to turn our "Deep Dive" into a winning ticket? The leaderboard is shifting, the points are doubling, and the window of opportunity is closing. Stay tuned to US Racing and get the best insights to place your 2026 Kentucky Derby betting wagers to lock in the value before these contenders become household names. The Triple Crown waits for no one; claim your spot in the winner’s circle now.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
