It makes sense for Mark Casse to give Counting Stars a race over the Keeneland track in Sunday's $650,000 Spinster Stakes (G1) since the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) will be run over the same track at the same distance in less than four weeks.
Or, maybe it's because the Hall of Fame trainer has fared so well in three previous Breeders' Cup's at the historic track in Lexington, Kentucky. Of his six Breeders' Cup wins, three have come at Keeneland.
Casse sends out his 3-year-old filly in a compact field of five, led by 4-5 morning-line favorite Fully Subscribed. It will be Counting Star's first test against older females.
"We like that she's getting a start at Keeneland ahead of Breeders' Cup, but the four weeks is not ideal," Casse said. "But we'll worry about that as it comes. She's happy going into this one."
Two-time Grade 1 winner Counting Stars (5-2) won the Acorn Stakes (G1) and the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga but then came up short in the Alabama Stakes (G1) on Aug. 22 at the Spa. The Honor A.P. filly led the field but was passed in the stretch by winner My Guns Loaded and was unable to hold off a rallying Measure, who finished second.
Despite the loss, Counting Stars is among the top 3-year-old fillies, and this is a nice test against older horses before the BC Distaff.
Irad Ortiz, Jr., returning from an injury that sidelined him for a month, will be aboard.
Fully Subscribed, trained by Chad Brown, is the clear top choice in the 1 1/8-mile Spinster. A daughter of Tiz the Law, the 4-year-old comes into the Spinster off two stakes wins at Saratoga, the Shuvee (G2) and the Personal Ensign (G1) by 9 ¾ lengths -- her first Grade 1 win. With early tactical speed, her best racing when she stalks the pacesetters and then makes her move in the stretch. Flavien Prat will be aboard.
"She has always trained at a very high level, and she's run very well in her races. She's very consistent, but it was very much a breakthrough performance for her," Brown said of the Personal Ensign. "It was good to see. We always thought she was capable of that type of win."
Immersive (7-2) owns a win over the track, but that came in 2024 in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) during her Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old campaign. Her lone win this year came in the Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs in June, and last out she was third in the Locust Grove Stakes (G2) at Churchill on Sept. 12. The Nyquist filly, who will be ridden by Jose Ortiz, may not be having a championship season – yet – but Immersive comes in with a stellar resume of six wins, four seconds and third in 11 starts.
Regaled (8-1) has raced in top company, finishing second in the Fleur de Lis (behind Immersive) and fourth in the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1), behind Nitrogen, Fully Subscribed and Bless the Broken. Is this breakthrough time for the 5-year-old mare trained by Whit Beckman?
Snowyte is the longshot at 15-1 for trainer Danny Gargan. The 4-year-old Good Magic filly was a tiring fourth in the Personal Ensign, more than 10 lengths behind Fully Subscribed, last out. Luis Saez has the call.
The Spinster, along with the co-feature Bourbon Stakes (G2), are both Breeders' Cup Challenge Series "Win and You're In'' races, capping Keeneland's "Fall Stars Weekend" of eight Breeders' Cup automatic qualifiers.
Post time for the Spinster is 5:45 p.m. ET.
1 Regaled (Tyler Gaffalione, Whit Beckman), 8-1
2 Counting Stars (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Mark Casse), 5-2
3 Immersive (Jose Ortiz, Brad Cox), 7-2
4 Fully Subscribed (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown), 4-5
5 Snowyte (Luis Saez, Danny Gargan), 15-1
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
