We handicappers often find ourselves in the grip of an ancient malady: paralysis by analysis. Sometimes we overthink the obvious, looking for some hidden angle. It often pays to simply go with the flow and take what’s right in front of you.
That is usually the case in the Belmont Stakes (G1) coming up on Saturday at Saratoga. We’ve got a $500 bankroll to invest, so let’s map out a plan.
We are in an interesting transitional period in the Triple Crown. The Kentucky Derby (G1) is the ultimate goal, the pinnacle of the sport. The Preakness Stakes (G1) has become irrelevant, as evidenced once again when the Derby winner Golden Tempo sat out the middle jewel to wait for the Belmont.
In fact, there isn’t a single Preakness runner in the Belmont field. Many ideas have been floated as to how to make the Preakness meaningful again, but that’s a topic for another day.
We’re trying to zero in on the Belmont and cash some tickets. So, let’s start with the obvious: the five horses who ran in the Derby made the qualifying cut and, by that standard, are the top 3-year-olds at the moment. By skipping the Preakness, all five have had plenty of rest to compete in this 1 1/4 stakes at the same distance as the Derby.
| 2026 Belmont Stakes Odds | ||
| Official post positions set following the post-position draw on Monday, June 1, 2026. | ||
| PP | Horse / Trainer | Morning Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitruvian ManAntonio Fresu · D. O'Neill | 30/1 |
| 2 | PowershiftLuis Saez · T. Pletcher | 12/1 |
| 3 | Chief WallabeeJunior Alvarado · W. Mott | 3/1 |
| 4 | RenegadeIrad Ortiz Jr. · T. Pletcher | 2/1 |
| 5 | OttinhoDylan Davis · C. Brown | 20/1 |
| 6 | Growth EquityManny Franco · C. Brown | 12/1 |
| 7 | CommandmentJohn Velazquez · B. Cox | 6/1 |
| 8 | Emerging MarketFlavien Prat · C. Brown | 6/1 |
| 9 | Golden TempoJose Ortiz · C. DeVaux | 9/2 |
Last Updated on 06/01/2026
The key to unlocking the Belmont puzzle is to focus on the five horses from the Derby: Golden Tempo (9-2), Renegade (2-1), Chief Wallabee (3-1), Commandment (6-1), and Emerging Market (6-1).
Golden Tempo made that breathtaking last-to-first dash to win the Derby at 23-1, besting Renegade by a neck.
Those two are the ones to beat, and we see Renegade turning the tables in the rematch. So, let’s start this way.
If you are still doubtful and want to analyze deeper into the contenders' odds, try our Belmont Stakes Betting Calculator.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
