With less than eight weeks to go before the 152nd Kentucky Derby G1), the final push is on to qualify for the Run for the Roses in front of more than 150,000 racing fans that will pack into Churchill Downs in Louisville on May 2.
There are nine Derby point-qualifying races left on the 36-race Road to the Kentucky Derby. The field for the 1¼-mile Derby is limited to 20 starters based on qualifying points, including three possible invitations to international horses – two from the Euro-Mideast Road to the Derby and one from the Japan Road to the Derby.
At least seven 3-year-olds have already earned enough points to secure a spot in the starting gate. On Saturday, the winner of the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs will add another qualifier in the race that awards 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers. Historically, a minimum of 40 points is usually enough to make the field. Those who have earned a spot in the starting gate are Paladin, The Puma, Silent Tactic, Class President, Commandment, Iron Honor, and Potente – all with 50 or more Derby points.
From March 21-April 4, the qualifying points just about double to 100-50-25-15-10 for the top five finishers. Most of the 3-year-olds already with enough points are likely to compete in these races as a final tuneup before the Derby. The final prep is the Lexington Stakes on April 11, offering 20-10-6-4-2 points on a sliding scale for bubble horses needing more points to qualify.
With that, Saturday’s results produced two new 3-year-olds to this week’s 2026 Kentucky Derby Top 10 Contenders – San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Potente and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner The Puma.
Potente, a $2.4 million purchase by Speedway Stables, edged longshot Robusta by a head, with So Happy another head back, in the San Felipe at Santa Anita, giving Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert another Derby contender. Potente, with just two starts, moves in at No. 7.
“This horse has a lot of talent,” jockey Juan Hernandez said. “He's big, he's strong, and he showed up today.”
The Puma, co-owned, trained, and ridden by the folks who won the 2023 Derby with Mage, surprised favorites Further Ado and Canaletto in the Tampa Bay Derby. The Puma, in his third start, moves in at No. 8.
“He’s now got enough points to go into the race (the Derby),’’ said Ramiro Restrepo, the racing manager for the ownership group that includes trainer Gustavo Delgado. “Whether Gustavo chooses to pick one of the big points races that are in April or train straight up to the race is going to be left to the horse and for him to decide.”
The top five remain the same as last week: Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Commandment is No. 1 for the second straight week, followed by Nearly (Holy Bull Stakes), Paladin (Risen Star Stakes), Class President (Rebel Stakes winner), and Silent Tactic (Rebel runner-up).
Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens Friday with Paladin the 5-1 favorite, Commandment at 6-1, and Nearly at 8-1.
With the field taking shape, odds on recent Derby prep winners have dropped dramatically. The Puma (Tampa Bay Derby) opens at 25-1 in pool 4; he was 123-1. Potente is now 25-1 rather than 44-1 following his win in the San Felipe Stakes. Iron Honor, who won the Gotham Stakes on Feb. 28, is now 25-1 rather than 122-1.
Further Ado, No. 6 last week, finished second to The Puma in his 3-year-old debut, beaten less than a length, but drops out of the top 10. So does Intrepido, who was not entered in the San Felipe in favor of waiting for the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 4.
Chief Wallabee, runner-up in the Fountain of Youth and Litmus Test, is trained by Baffert and scheduled to run in the Arkansas Derby on March 28.
No firm commitment yet on where Fountain of Youth winner will have final prep, Gulfstream Park or Keeneland ... Has won three in a row since a debut fourth at Keeneland in October ... Maiden win came at Churchill Downs on Nov. 1 at 7 furlongs ... Training at Payson Park in Florida ... Owner: Wathnan Racing ... Purchased for $500,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Breeding: Into Mischief-Sippican Harbor, by Orb ... Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 28/Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland, April 4 ... No. 5 on Derby points leaderboard (50). Derby future wager odds (pool 5): 6-1
Worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.60 at Palm Beach Downs, his fourth breeze since Holy Bull win on Jan. 31 ... Remains a top contender, but likely needs to finish in top 3 in final prep to make Derby field ... Owner: Donald Little’s Centennial Farm ... Purchased for $350,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Breeding: Not This Time-IB Prospecting, by Mineshaft ... Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 28 ... No. 19 on Derby points leaderboard (20). Derby future wager odds: 8-1
Worked 4 furlongs in 49.60 seconds at Payson Park on March 7, his second breeze since winning Risen Star on Feb. 14 ... Sports 3-0 record – won the Remsen at Big A on Dec. 6 ...Already clinched spot in Derby field with 60 qualifying points ... Gaffalione was aboard in Risen Star for first time, and seems likely to retain mount ... Owners: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter Brant, Brook Smith, Summer Wind Equine ... Pedigree: Gun Runner-Secret Sigh, by Tapit ... Purchased for $1.9 million at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next start: Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland, April 4 ... No. 1 on Derby points leaderboard (60). Derby future wager odds: 5-1
Beat tough field in winning Rebel on March 1 in third career start, giving Pletcher three top 10 contenders ... Hall of Fame team of Pletcher/Velazquez won 2017 Derby with Always Dreaming ... Training at Palm Beach Downs but final prep still not set ... Owners: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing., CHC (China Horse Club) ... Pedigree: Uncle Mo-Top Quality, by Quality Road ... Next start: TBD ... No. 4 on Derby points leaderboard (50) ... Derby future wager odds: 20-1
A strong closer, he came up short in the Rebel, beaten a nose by Class President ... Also closed with a rush to win Southwest Stakes on Feb. 6 ... A strong showing in a final prep could give Casse a chance for first Derby win ... Owner: John Oxley ... Pedigree: Tacitus-Magical Sign, by Gun Runner ... Purchased for $500,000 at Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training 2025 ... Next start: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 28 ... No. 3 on Derby points leaderboard (50). Derby future wager odds: 20-1
After running a closing third in Risen Star on March 14, colt has been fitted with blinkers to keep him more focused ... Winner of the Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 17, a top four finish in final prep may be needed to get into the Derby ... Owners: Phipps Stable, St. Elias Stable ... Pedigree: Curlin-Carrumba, by Bernadini ... Next start: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, March 21 ... No. 10 on Derby points leaderboard (35). Derby future wager odds: 30-1
In just his second start, this powerful colt stalked pace and surged to victory over 67-1 longshot Robusta in a 1 1/16-mile San Felipe on March 7 ... He’s “bred to go that far,’’ Baffert said. “He was ready for that.” ... Speedway Stables ... Pedigree: Into Mischief-Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again ... Purchased for $2.4 million at 2024 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling Sale ... Next start: Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita, April 4 ... No. 7 on Derby points leaderboard (50). Derby future wager odds: 15-1
Broke his maiden in style with victory in Tampa Bay Derby over favorites Further Ado and Canaletto on March 7 ... Delgado, trainer/co-owner, Castellano and fellow co-owner Ramiro Restrepo won the 2023 Derby with Mage ... Owners: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, High Step Racing ... Pedigree: Essential Quality-Eve of War, by Declaration of War ... Purchased for $150,000 at the Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale for 2-Year-Olds in Training ... Nest start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 28 ... No. 2 on Derby points leaderboard (56) ... Derby future wager odds: 25-1.
Seeking a first Derby win, Brown now has two top 10 contenders after Iron Honor lived up to expectations in winning Gotham on Feb. 28 (he also trains Paladin) ... Owners: St. Elias Stable, William Lawrence, Glassman Racing ... Breeding: Nyquist-Orencia, by Blame ... Purchased for $475,000 at Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next start: Wood Memorial (G1), Aqueduct, April 4 ... No. 6 on Derby points leaderboard (50) ... Derby future wager odds: 25-1
Worked 4 furlongs in 49.33 seconds at Palm Beach Downs on March 7 ... Won Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7 ... In previous two starts, finished first in maiden race but was DQ’d (Paladin was elevated to first) at Big A on Oct. 17 and ran second in Remsen ... Owners: Robert Low, Lawana Low, Repole Stable ... Pedigree: Into Mischief-Spice is Nice, by Curlin ... Purchased for $975,000 at Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next race: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 28 ... No. 12 on Derby points leaderboard (25). Derby future wage odds: 20-1
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
