The thunderous spectacle of the Kentucky Derby always captivates the world, but the path to Churchill Downs starts much earlier, long before the first Saturday in May. Serious handicappers and astute racing fans know the importance of a deep dive into the winter-time prep races, those challenging contests that test the mettle of juvenile horses.
Thoroughbreds ready to stretch out to classic distances. One race, in particular, consistently signals a horse's potential to wear the garland of roses: the Los Alamitos Futurity. This Grade II event, currently contested over 1 1/16 miles on the dirt at Los Alamitos Race Course, represents a critical, high-stakes proving ground in the Golden State. It offers a substantial $200,000 purse and, far more importantly, awards valuable qualifying points on the official Kentucky Derby leaderboard (10-5-3-2-1) to the top five finishers.
This race has historically served as a crystal ball, foretelling future Triple Crown success and forging genuine Kentucky Derby contenders who go on to etch their names into the sport's most sacred records. Analyzing the winners and key performers from the Los Alamitos Futurity and its predecessor, the Hollywood Futurity, provides essential insight for anyone looking to place a profitable bet on Kentucky Derby future wagers.
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The roll call of horses who ran in this juvenile fixture and subsequently won the Kentucky Derby confirms its unparalleled influence on the Triple Crown trail. While the race itself has only produced one horse to sweep both events, an astonishing six horses who simply started in the Futurity have gone on to win the Derby.
This fact alone makes the Los Alamitos Futurity a mandatory stop on your handicapping journey as you analyze Kentucky Derby prep races. The list includes legendary names that define their respective eras of American horse racing.
Consider the champion Gato Del Sol (1982), who finished a disappointing seventh in the inaugural Futurity but rallied from 19th place to stun the field in Louisville the following May. Then came back-to-back Derby heroes from the Futurity’s starters: Ferdinand (1986) and Alysheba (1987). Ferdinand, who finished third in the Futurity, triumphed in the Derby. Alysheba, the fourth-place Futurity finisher, found redemption on the first Saturday in May, later cementing his greatness with a Preakness Stakes victory and an Eclipse Award. These horses demonstrate a vital lesson: even a beaten juvenile in the Futurity possesses the inherent class and stamina required to conquer the demanding 1 1/4 miles of the Derby. The Futurity provides the crucial two-turn experience at a distance that many juveniles have yet to master, preparing them physically and mentally for the greater challenges ahead.
The story of Real Quiet stands alone, providing the ultimate endorsement of the Los Alamitos Futurity’s predictive power. Real Quiet, trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, won the 1997 Futurity (then the Hollywood Futurity) in a sharp time of 1:41.34 for the 1 1/16 miles. The following spring, he emerged victorious in the 1998 Kentucky Derby, becoming the only horse in history to date to win both the Futurity and the Run for the Roses. Real Quiet demonstrated the rare ability to carry his elite two-year-old form all the way through the Triple Crown season. He continued his brilliance by winning the Preakness Stakes, falling just short of the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. This dual victory forever links the Los Alamitos event to the pinnacle of the sport, proving a horse can be both a winter champion and a spring star.
Another striking example of the Futurity’s lasting impact came in 2005 with the colossal upset victory of Giacomo in the Derby. Giacomo, a massive longshot at 50-1 in the Derby, had signaled his underlying talent months earlier with a runner-up finish in the Futurity, running the 1 1 1/16 miles in a respectable 1:42.02. His performance as a juvenile in the Futurity quietly stamped him as a horse with the necessary distance ability, even if his form subsequently dipped. This historic win highlights the importance of analyzing past Futurity performance when considering Kentucky Derby odds for any given year, especially looking beyond just the winner's circle.
No discussion of the Los Alamitos Futurity is complete without acknowledging the overwhelming influence of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Baffert has dominated this race, amassing a record 14 victories across its various iterations (Hollywood, CashCall, and Los Alamitos Futurity) starting in 1997. This remarkable strike rate makes the race a virtual Kentucky Derby prep races laboratory for the future stars emerging from his powerful barn. Baffert’s winners list in this race reads like a Triple Crown honor roll.
While some of his Futurity champions, like Dortmund (2014 winner) and Improbable (2018 winner), did not ultimately win the Derby, their victories in the Los Alamitos Futurity firmly established them as major players and perennial favorites in the Kentucky Derby betting landscape. Dortmund finished a credible third in the 2015 Derby, and Improbable, though later disqualified from a Derby placing, ran second in the 2019 Preakness. More recently, Wynstock won the 2023 edition, adding to the Baffert legacy.
His Futurity champions, including Point Given (2000 winner), have gone on to sweep the Preakness and Belmont, confirming the class foundation established at Los Alamitos. Point Given became the 2001 Preakness and Belmont winner, a testament to the Futurity's ability to produce Classic winners even if the Derby itself remains elusive for some. The sheer volume of high-level talent Baffert fields in this race, and the ensuing success, compels every serious handicapper to pay extra attention to his entrants’ performances when calculating their Kentucky Derby futures. The recent winner, Journalism (2024), who won the Futurity and went on to win the Preakness Stakes, further confirms the race's relevance, even if his Derby finishing position was a runner-up one.
The Los Alamitos Futurity, run at 1 1/16 miles, serves as a significant test of a juvenile's ability to carry its speed over two turns—a critical requirement for the Derby’s 1 1/4 miles. Many two-year-olds excel at sprinting or running one-turn miles, but the Futurity demands a different kind of horse. The winners of this race consistently demonstrate a combination of tactical speed and underlying stamina, marking them as true Kentucky Derby contenders.
Take the example of Thunder Gulch, who ran third in the 1994 Futurity before winning the 1995 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. His Futurity performance, while not a win, demonstrated the necessary foundation of speed and staying power. Similarly, champion Lookin At Lucky captured the 2009 Futurity before winning the Preakness Stakes the following year. These successes reinforce the notion that the Futurity is not merely a prep race; it’s an early screening process for horses capable of handling the rigors of the Triple Crown distances.
When analyzing running times, which have historically dipped to 1:40.74 by Afternoon Deelites (1994 winner), we gain concrete data on the speed and stamina of these burgeoning stars. Furthermore, the race has crowned three Eclipse Award winners for Champion Two-Year-Old Male: Roving Boy (1982), Declan's Moon (2004), and Shared Belief (2013), cementing its status as an elite contest that produces year-end champions and future classic winners, an indispensable piece of the puzzle for those setting their Kentucky Derby Odds.
The Futurity has undergone several identity changes throughout its history, starting as the Hollywood Futurity in 1981, becoming the CashCall Futurity, and finally settling at Los Alamitos Race Course in 2014. Despite the venue and name shifts, the race’s fundamental mission has remained the same: to provide a final, two-turn test for top West Coast juveniles aiming for the Triple Crown. The race's brief dip from Grade I to Grade II status in 2019 has done little to diminish its historical importance or its power to qualify horses for the first leg of the Triple Crown. It remains a key component of the official Road to the Kentucky Derby points system, guaranteeing the top finishers a crucial head start on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. The consistent production of classic winners—six Derby starters, three Derby winners from the winners and placed horses, and multiple Preakness and Belmont winners—ensures its lasting relevance.
For horseplayers, the Futurity offers a concrete, measurable performance to evaluate over a two-turn route on the ground, unlike earlier, shorter juvenile stakes. This specific distance and track configuration offer a more authentic glimpse into a horse’s stamina than most other late-season two-year-old races, making it invaluable for handicapping the complex 1 1/4 miles of the Derby. We look for horses who finish strongly, demonstrating an ability to sustain a long run, traits that separate contenders from pretenders come spring.
Understanding the history of the Los Alamitos Futurity gives savvy bettors a distinct advantage in the Kentucky Derby futures market. The presence of a horse who ran well here immediately elevates their status, regardless of their immediate win/loss record. Giacomo's 50-1 Derby win, after running second in the Futurity, offers the most tantalizing example of the kind of value this race can uncover.
By identifying the Futurity's top finishers and understanding their running styles, you arm yourself with the foundational knowledge to anticipate which horses will thrive at three. This early insight allows you to bet on Kentucky Derby hopefuls at generous, value-driven odds long before the public catches on in April. You are not just betting on a horse; you are investing in a proven historical trend—the Futurity’s consistent ability to launch future Derby stars. Use the data from this elite California contest to sharpen your analysis and find your own longshot hero who will light up the tote board next May.
The Los Alamitos Futurity is more than just a race; it is a legendary proving ground that has shaped the careers of multiple Triple Crown heroes. Six different Futurity starters have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, a staggering conversion rate that demands your attention.
You now hold the key to this historical pattern, and you understand that strong performance here is a clear signal of elite potential. Stop reading about past winners and start identifying your own. Don't wait until the final Kentucky Derby odds are released and the value is gone. Stay tuned to US Racing to get immediate access to the latest data, expert analysis, and exclusive odds on all the top Kentucky Derby contenders from the West Coast circuit. Make the history of the Los Alamitos Futurity work for your bankroll and place your winning Kentucky Derby betting wagers now.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
