The 2025 Pennsylvania Derby is upon us, and the excitement is palpable as a competitive field of three-year-old colts prepares to battle for a prestigious Grade 1 victory. The venue, Parx Racing, located just outside of Philadelphia in Bensalem, Pennsylvania, provides a challenging one-mile oval with a long stretch that often rewards a well-timed, sustained run.
The weather forecast for this Saturday, September 20, 2025, looks like a perfect day for horse racing, with a sunny sky and a comfortable high temperature of 23°C (about 73°F). This excellent weather should ensure a fast and fair racetrack, a crucial factor for anyone analyzing the Pennsylvania Derby Betting odds. This prestigious $1 million event, a highlight on the national racing calendar, routinely attracts top-tier talent from across the country, serving as a crucial prep race for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
The Pennsylvania Derby carries a rich and storied history, with its inaugural running taking place in 1979 at what was then known as Keystone Racetrack. The race's place on the calendar has shifted over the decades, but it has now settled into a prime late-summer spot.
Past winners include legendary names like Harlan's Holiday (2002), a champion older horse, and more recent stars like Bayern (2014), Frosted (2015), and Taiba (2022). Last year, Seize the Grey put on a gritty performance to take home the prize.
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Seize the Grey | Jaime A. Torres | D. Wayne Lukas | MyRacehorse | 1:51.89 |
| 2023 | Saudi Crown | Florent Geroux | Brad H. Cox | FMQ Stables | 1:50.62 |
| 2022 | Taiba | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert | Zedan Racing Stakes | 1:48.67 |
| 2021 | Hot Rod Charlie | Flavien Prat | Doug O'Neill | Roadrunner Racing, William Strauss, Boat Racing & Gainesway Stable | 1:48.63 |
| 2020 | RACE NOT HELD | ||||
This race has also served as a proving ground for jockeys and trainers, with the likes of Mike Smith and Bob Baffert finding great success here. A quick look at the history reveals that horses breaking from middle to low post positions have a strong record of success, a valuable piece of information as you formulate your Pennsylvania Derby betting strategy.
We have a fantastic field of ten horses entering the starting gate for this edition of the Pennsylvania Derby. The absence of the two dominant forces in the three-year-old division—the Triple Crown winners Sovereignty and Journalism—means this race is wide open and provides a chance for a new star to emerge.
The official morning lines are out, giving us a clear picture of how the public and oddsmakers view the contenders. We can now delve into a detailed, horse-by-horse analysis to help you make your picks and get ready to bet on the Pennsylvania Derby.
So Sandy, a promising colt trained by Cherie DeVaux, enters the Pennsylvania Derby with some solid recent form. He comes off a second-place finish in the restricted Curlin Stakes at Saratoga, showing a new dimension to his running style by pressing the pace. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche will have the mount, and this pairing has been effective lately. So Sandy has an improving Equibase Speed Figure, and he will need to continue his upward trajectory to compete against this Grade 1 company. His morning line odds are 15-1.
He has shown an ability to press the pace, but with other speed in the race, Carmouche will need to navigate a good trip from the rail. While this is a significant step up in class, his recent progress makes him a live longshot for the exotics. He seems like a horse that could continue to develop into a nice four-year-old next year.
Altobelli, a 50-1 longshot on the morning line, faces a monumental task in the Pennsylvania Derby. Trained by James Nicholson Jr. and ridden by Angel Castillo, he has raced 15 times but never at a distance longer than three-quarters of a mile. His career earnings are just shy of $100,000, and he is stepping into a Grade 1 company for the first time. In his last start, he finished last in a starter allowance race at Delaware Park, beaten by over 17 lengths.
The jump in class and distance presents a significant challenge for him, and his past performances simply do not suggest he will be a factor against this caliber of competition. For all intents and purposes, he seems outclassed in this spot and is likely to struggle.
Magnitude, trained by the legendary Steve Asmussen, is an intriguing contender at 6-1 on the morning line. He won the Grade 2 Risen Star and the Iowa Derby this year, demonstrating his class and ability. In his most recent start, he finished third in the Travers Stakes, a race dominated by the division leaders, where he was beaten by over 20 lengths. Jockey Ben Curtis retains the mount, a jockey who knows the horse well. Magnitude possesses plenty of early speed, and he will likely be a key part of the pace scenario.
He will need to use that speed to get to the front of the pack, as he has shown a tendency to get a more leisurely trip when on the lead. How he handles the pressure and pace will be the key to his performance. If he can maintain a fast pace, he could have enough left in the tank to be a serious threat in the stretch.
David of Athens, a lightly raced but talented colt, comes from the barn of Brendan Walsh, who also saddles Gosger. He will be making just his fourth career start and his graded stakes debut. His last race, a front-running allowance win at Ellis Park, was awe-inspiring, as he waltzed home an easy winner by over seven lengths and earned a strong Brisnet speed figure. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who has a strong record with Walsh and was aboard Big Truzz last out, takes the reins.
David of Athens has shown a great deal of potential, and his connections clearly believe he is ready for this challenge. At 12-1 on the morning line, he represents an intriguing value play for savvy horseplayers analyzing the Pennsylvania Derby Betting odds. He will need to show he can handle the extra distance and the jump in competition, but his talent and the strong connections are undeniable.
Happily Delusional, a 30-1 longshot, seems ambitiously placed in this field. Trained by Louis Linder Jr. and ridden by Paco Lopez, this colt was well-beaten in both the Smarty Jones and Peter Pan Stakes. His past performances do not provide much confidence, and he will need a career-best effort, and then some, to be competitive with these horses.
He will likely be an afterthought for most bettors, but you never know in horse racing; sometimes a horse just finds its stride on a particular day. In this case, it is likely that his name will be more memorable than his performance.
Goal Oriented, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, is a serious threat at 5-2 on the morning line. This horse has consistently run well against top competition, finishing fourth in the Preakness Stakes and a close third in the Haskell Stakes, beaten only a neck for second place by Gosger. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the call for the first time, a huge change that could pay immediate dividends. Baffert is a master at shipping horses for big races, and his record in the Pennsylvania Derby is second to none, with four wins to his credit.
Goal Oriented possesses the tactical speed to sit just off the pace and make a run when it matters. He has the class and connections to be a major player in this race, making him one of the top choices for Pennsylvania Derby betting. The switch to Ortiz Jr. is a definite positive.
Big Truzz, a recent winner of the Ellis Park Derby, is a fascinating prospect at 10-1. Trained by Brian Lynch and with Javier Castellano in the irons for the first time, this horse has demonstrated a powerful closing kick. He posted a lopsided win in his last outing, winning by over seven lengths. The question remains whether he can carry that speed and stamina over the 1 1/8-mile distance against top-tier competition.
Castellano, a Hall of Fame rider, is a perfect fit for a horse like this, and his presence on board gives Big Truzz an extra dimension. He's a true wildcard and a great choice for those looking for a value-based bet on the Pennsylvania Derby. He needs to show his Indiana Derby flop was a fluke.
Baeza, the deserving 2-1 morning-line favorite, stands out as the horse to beat. Trained by John Shirreffs, this colt has consistently been in the mix against the very best in the division. He was second in the Jim Dandy Stakes and has finished behind only Sovereignty and Journalism in his last four starts. While he has only a single maiden win on his resume, his consistent performances against the best in the country speak volumes. Jockey Hector Berrios has the call, a rider who has been with the horse for his key California starts.
Baeza is a versatile runner who can stalk or close, and with no clear pace dominator in this field, he projects to get a perfect trip. His class and tactical ability make him the logical favorite in a race that lacks the two stars of the division.
Gosger, another runner from the Brendan Walsh barn, is a formidable competitor at 4-1 on the morning line. He comes into this race with back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Stakes, both behind the formidable Journalism. He is a gritty and consistent horse who always shows up with a strong effort. Jockey Luis Saez, who has been a regular on Gosger, will be in the saddle.
Gosger already holds a graded stakes win, the Lexington Stakes, on his resume. His style is to sit just off the pace, and he should get a good trip breaking from post 9. He is a very professional and competitive horse, and he looks like the main danger to the favorite, Baeza.
Mo Plex, a G3 Ohio Derby winner, enters with the Pennsylvania Derby Betting odds at 12-1 on the morning line. Trained by Jeremiah Englehart and ridden by Joe Ramos, this colt has shown tactical speed and a steady progression. He was fourth in the Jim Dandy, where he was part of the early pace before tiring. From the outside post, he will need to use his speed early to get position. Mo Plex has a good record and solid earnings, but he will need to prove he can handle the level of competition he faces today.
He's a legitimate threat to hit the board, and if the pace falls apart, he could be right there at the end. For those looking at more exotic Pennsylvania Derby betting options, he is definitely one to include.
The betting public will focus heavily on the top three on the morning line, and for good reason. Baeza (2-1) is the logical favorite based on his consistent performances against the best of the best. His late-closing style will be well-suited to the likely fast pace. For a straight win bet, he is a solid choice and a suitable anchor for exotic wagers.
Goal Oriented (5-2) represents the formidable Baffert-Ortiz Jr. combo. He has shown the ability to run with Grade 1 company and possesses the tactical speed to get a perfect trip. He is a must-use in all exotic bets and a strong win candidate.
Gosger (4-1) is the other major player, having consistently finished behind the top horses in the division. He has a slightly better speed figure than Baeza and a proven ability to get the distance at a high level. You can confidently play him to win or place.
For those looking for value, the Pennsylvania Derby odds provide some intriguing longshots. Big Truzz (10-1) is a prime example of a horse with a big upside. His last win was explosive, and with a Hall of Fame jockey like Javier Castellano getting aboard for the first time, he could surprise. He is a great play for an exacta or trifecta underneath the favorites.
David of Athens (12-1) is another intriguing prospect. He is lightly raced, but his last race was visually impressive, and he comes from a barn with a strong track record. He is the kind of horse who could take a huge step forward and be a major factor at a great price.
When formulating your Pennsylvania Derby betting strategy, consider the pace scenario. With Magnitude and Mo Plex both possessing early speed, and So Sandy likely to be forwardly placed, the race could set up perfectly for a stalker or closer. This favors Baeza, Goal Oriented, Gosger, and Big Truzz. Given the competitive nature of the field, this is an excellent race for exotic bets. A trifecta box with Baeza, Goal Oriented, and Gosger is a smart play. For a bigger payout, try a superfecta, adding Big Truzz or David of Athens to your tickets. The sheer unpredictability of this field, with no clear star, makes it a rewarding puzzle for serious bettors.
The 2025 Pennsylvania Derby promises a thrilling conclusion to a day of incredible racing. With the division’s top two horses sitting this one out, the stage is set for a new star to rise. We have a compelling mix of seasoned Grade 1 runners like Baeza and Gosger, talented closers like Big Truzz, and promising, lightly-raced colts like David of Athens.
The strategic decisions made by jockeys in the early stages will be critical, as many of these horses possess a similar running style. This race offers bettors a fantastic opportunity to find value and make some money.
So, study the form, analyze the Pennsylvania Derby odds, and get ready to witness a spectacular race that will surely have a major impact on the rest of the racing season. Make your plays and enjoy the show!
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
