Kentucky Derby Contender: Baeza

With the late scratch of Rodriguez on Thursday, also-eligible Baeza moves into the field for Saturday’s 151st running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3.

Kentucky Derby Contender: Baeza

Baeza. Renee Torbit/Coady Photo.

His trainer stayed positive in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby (G1), hoping his improving 3-year-old would get into the field with a few last-minute defections.

Viola!

Two days before the Derby, Baeza moved into the field of 20 after trainer Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez was scratched due to a slight foot bruise.

The addition of Baeza, trained by John Shirreffs of Giacomo fame (2005 Derby winner at 50-1), brings a new Kentucky Derby contender from the West Coast into the fray – one that finished second to Derby favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5.

Baeza has been working toward the Derby at Churchill Downs for more than a week. With Flavien Prat up, Baeza posted a 5-furlong work in 1:02 on April 28, the slowest of 15 at the distance but by design.

“He went good,” said Prat, who will be aboard again as he takes off Neoequos (Luis Saez replaces him). “He felt good, and he did it easily.”

Shirreffs said of the work: “I know 1:02 is a little on the slow side, but he’s not an especially sharp work horse. We put a good work into him last week (7 furlongs in 1:28 at Santa Anita on April 20) and he’s ready.”

Baeza has a maiden win in four starts, but his Santa Anita Derby run, a three-quarters-of-a-length loss to Journalism, seems to have encouraged handicappers. They certainly recall the 2022 Derby, when Rich Strike got into the field the day before the race and then won at 80-1 odds.

Kentucky Derby Betting Advice

Most horseplayers agree Baeza deserves to be here, and his odds of 12-1 could go down since he’ll likely be the ‘wise guy’ choice. Include in exotics.

Contender Information Card 

  • Post position: 19     
  • Odds: 20-1
  • Jockey: Flavien Prat
  • Trainer:  John Shirreffs
  • Owners: C R K Stable, Grandview Equine 
  • Career record: 4-1-2-0 
  • Career earnings: $148,500
  • Last race: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 5, 2nd
  • Derby points: 37.5 (21st) 
  • Top Equibase speed figure: 107
  • Pedigree: McKinzie-Puca, by Big Brown
  • Color: Bay     
  • Running style: Stalker
  • Notes: In 2005, with his first Derby starter, John Shirreffs’ Giacomo stunned the racing world with his Kentucky Derby betting odds 50-1 upset, returned $102.60 on a $2 win bet – the second highest payout at the time behind Donerail in 1913 ... It was also the first Derby win for Smith ... Baeza is a half-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage as well as a half-brother to 2024 Belmont Stakes (G1) hero Dornoch.
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