The $350,000 Dowager Stakes (G3) headlines Keeneland’s Sunday card on October 19, 2025, and serves as the final turf marathon for fillies and mares before the Breeders’ Cup. Run at 1 1/2 miles on the Haggin Turf Course, the Dowager rewards endurance, patience, and a perfectly timed ride.
This year’s lineup features a blend of proven graded runners and intriguing long-distance specialists, led by the Walsh vs. Sharp rivalry that’s defined many turf events this fall. The forecast calls for a mild, sunny day with firm ground, ideal conditions for the field of nine.
Here are the three best bets for the 2025 Dowager Stakes.
There’s plenty to like about Spanish Eyes, who returns for trainer Brendan P. Walsh, already a past Dowager winner with Temple City Terror in 2022. Forget her off-the-board finish in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon; that course plays more like a hill than a racetrack. Keeneland’s long, sweeping turns should let her use her tactical speed and measured kick to full effect.
Sired by Zarak, she’s bred to stay the distance, and with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, she’ll get a patient, ground-saving trip before unleashing late. Her works indicate she’s bounced back nicely, and Walsh wouldn’t enter her unless he believed she was sitting on a peak effort.
This is the type of horse that looks better the farther she runs, and the Dowager’s 12 furlongs are tailor-made for her rhythm. If the race unfolds with an honest tempo, expect her to be in striking range turning for home.
Verdict: Strong win candidate. Reliable choice for win bets and key horse in exactas.
The “value pick” label fits Venencia perfectly. She brings classy overseas form, having finished fourth in the Singspiel Stakes (G3) before shipping stateside. Another from the Walsh barn, she’s by Recoletos, a sire known for producing genuine long-distance performers.
Venencia’s biggest advantage is her stamina. Many of these rivals are stretching out, but she’s already proven over marathon trips. Ben Curtis takes the mount, and if the early fractions are sensible, she’ll be rolling late, especially if the Keeneland turf retains its firmness throughout the card.
In races like this, pedigree and conditioning often separate contenders from pretenders. Venencia has both, and her 6-1 morning line makes her an enticing play for bettors looking beyond the chalk.
Verdict: Excellent value option. Use in win/place bets and exotic combinations.
If you’re looking for a legitimate upset candidate, Bless My Stars deserves a serious look. The South African-bred mare exits a sixth-place finish in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2), a race that’s much tougher than what she’ll face here. She’s another from Walsh’s loaded lineup, and getting John Velazquez back in the saddle is a tactical coup.
Her closing style should benefit from the long Keeneland stretch, especially if the early leaders overdo it on the front end. While she hasn’t won at this distance yet, her pedigree (Gimmethegreenlight) and previous graded experience suggest she’s capable of lasting every inch of the twelve furlongs.
She’s the kind of mare that needs the right trip, but if she gets it, she can absolutely blow up the tote board. Given her trainer’s track record in this very race, dismissing her would be foolish.
Verdict: Legitimate longshot with upside. Worth a win/place wager and inclusion in trifectas.
The Dowager Stakes consistently produces late-race drama, and this year’s renewal should be no different. With three legitimate Walsh trainees all capable of striking, bettors may want to anchor around Spanish Eyes for reliability, while mixing in Venencia and Bless My Stars for value and chaos potential.
A firm turf course will favor the European-style stayers, and with two of the top three picks fitting that bill, the numbers line up for a big payday if the race unfolds as expected.
Watch the full race live through the BUSR Experience on October 19, and follow the post-race analysis for updates leading into Breeders’ Cup weekend.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
