Rodeo Drive Stakes Betting: Horse-by-Horse Analysis, Odds and Picks

Rodeo Drive Stakes Betting: Horse-by-Horse Analysis, Odds and Picks

Saturday’s $200,000 Rodeo Drive Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita is a $200,000, 1¼-mile turf test for fillies and mares and a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” for the Filly & Mare Turf (G1) at Keeneland on Oct. 31.

The Rodeo Drive is scheduled as Race 10 with a 5:36 p.m. ET post time.

Rodeo Drive Stakes History

The race began in 1977 as the Yellow Ribbon Stakes, named for the wartime song “Tie a Yellow Ribbon ’Round the Old Oak Tree,” and was a Grade 1 fixture for decades before being renamed the Rodeo Drive in 2012 and later downgraded to Grade 2.

The 1 ¼-mile turf test is run at least partially on Santa Anita’s distinctive hillside turf course; the horses break from the gate midway down the hill and make a lap and a half around the course to the wire.

Repeat winners include champion Wait a While (2006, 2008), Avenge (2016, 2017), and Going to Vegas (2021, 2022). Other notable winners include Eclipse Award-winning turf mare Estrapade, Kostroma, Possibly Perfect, Ryafan, Golden Apples, Megahertz, Nashoba’s Key, Marketing Mix, Vasilika, Mirth, Photo Call, Didia, Hang the Moon, and last year’s winner Mission of Joy for trainer Phil D’Amato, who sends out three this year.

The late Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel saddled five winners to lead all trainers, and Kent Desormeaux has ridden four.

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Rodeo Drive Stakes Betting: Field of 11 Topped by Thought Process

Eleven will head to the gate, all in search of a spot on racing’s championship day. Thought Process (4-5) drew the rail and is the class of the field. The daughter of Collected is unbeaten in four Santa Anita starts, including the Buena Vista Stakes (G2) at a mile and the Gamely Stakes (G1) at 9 furlongs earlier this spring. This summer she was a length second as the 3-5 favorite in the John C. Mabee Stakes (G2) after a 3 ½-month break and returns here arguably more fit off the layoff. The Phil D’Amato trainee is a stalker; she settles midpack or just off the pace, then kicks home with strength down the lane. The extra sixteenth and the hillside finish are the only questions, but she is the one they all have to beat.

Graham Motion ships CTT and TOC Stakes winner Vronti (6-1) back out to California after her six-week break at her home base of Fair Hill, Maryland. The Night of Thunder filly will carry Juan Hernandez.

The England-bred won a Keeneland allowance, was fifth in the Gamely, second in a Saratoga allowance at 1 ⅜ miles, then shipped west and won the CTT and TOC at 1 ⅜ miles as the favorite. She is a genuine closer who hits her best stride late, and her outside post is fine for a horse that wants to drop in and behind the speed and rally down the lane. If the pace is honest, she is the main danger to the favorite.

Hall of Famer Richard Mandella will tighten the girth on May Day Ready (5-1), a daughter of Tapit who is a multiple graded stakes winner who began her career on the East Coast and even raced once in Japan. The millionaire was moved to Mandella’s care this year, where she struggled a bit in graded stakes company and then won the One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs on the same card as the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon (G3) last out. Kazushi Kimura rides, and she figures to stalk from midpack and, fresh off a win, is a solid contender here.

The California-bred Hey Jessie (10-1), trained by Sean McCarthy, is coming off a nice third in the Ladies Marathon. Grazen's daughter is a multiple stakes winner, including the Santa Barbara at 1 ½ miles on this turf course. She can press or sit close and can stay to the wire under jockey Emisael Jaramillo. If she repeats the Kentucky Downs effort, she is a major player.

The More Than Ready mare Public Assembly (15-1) won last year’s Royal Heroine Stakes (G3) and has been multiple graded stakes-placed since but has failed to make the winner’s circle. The D’Amato trainee was a dismal sixth in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon Invitational last month in a very flat performance. A mid-pack or later runner, she has placed at this trip and at 1 ⅜ miles. Julien Leparoux will be aboard.

Chile-bred Dona Clota (15-1) is another powerful force for trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. The Ivan Denisovich mare is a Group 1 winner in her homeland and a Grade 3 winner here. She was most recently fifth in the Ladies Marathon after a bit of trouble, though she seemed to lack a significant kick. The 5-year-old mare, who will be ridden by Micah Husbands, is a closer who wants a strong pace to close into.

Totally Justified (30-1), a daughter of Justify, won the P.G. Johnson as a 2-year-old, was second in the Jessamine Stakes (G2) and Regret Stakes (G3), then after struggling in allowance company this year, she won an Ellis Park allowance and the Ellis Park Turf Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. She is a midpack/closer who usually finishes strong. This is a class jump, but the pedigree and late kick give her a chance.

D’Amato also sends out Irish-bred Kentucky Gal (20-1), a daughter of Churchill who won at Galway as a 3-year-old; then, after being shipped stateside, she took the Possibly Perfect Stakes here at 1 ¼ miles in June for D’Amato. She was third in the Stakes and TOC and needs more to be a factor here. She is a mid-to-late runner who already likes this course and this trip. Joel Rosario rides.

Victorious Dream (20-1), an Ireland-bred daughter of Ghaiyyath, is the lone 3-year-old. The Michael McCarthy-trained filly was a disappointing seventh in the Del Mar Oaks (G1). She is more of a midpack closer than a speed horse, and while the weight break helps, she is still developing and has the most to prove against older graded winners. Ricky Gonzalez will be aboard.

Kyle Frey will ride the Ireland-bred The Mizen Queen (30-1) for trainer Dan Blacker. The 4-year-old daughter of Cotai Glory broke her maiden at Del Mar last fall and has been consistent at this level. She was third in the Possibly Perfect and second in the CTT and TOC Stakes.

The Midnight Lute filly Resolve (30-1) hails from the Leonard Powell barn. She was fourth in both the CTT and TOC Stakes at Del Mar and was second to Take a Breath in the Santa Ana (G3) at this 1 ¼-mile trip in March. She belongs in this group but is a cut below the favorite based on recent figures.

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The Picks: 1 Thought Process, 2 Vronti, 3 May Day Ready

The Field for the $200,000 Rodeo Drive Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

#HorseJockeyTrainerOdds
1Thought Process (KY)Hector I. BerriosPhilip D'Amato4/5
2Resolve (KY)Armando AyusoLeonard Powell30/1
3Dona Clota (CHI)Micah J. HusbandsSaffie A. Joseph, Jr.15/1
4Totally Justified (KY)J. C. BealmearAnthony M. Meah30/1
5Public Assembly (KY)Julien R. LeparouxPhilip D'Amato15/1
6Kentucky Gal (IRE)Joel RosarioPhilip D'Amato20/1
7Hey Jessie (CA)Edgard J. ZayasSean McCarthy10/1
8Victorious Dream (IRE)Ricardo GonzalezMichael W. McCarthy20/1
9May Day Ready (KY)Kazushi KimuraRichard E. Mandella5/1
10The Mizen Queen (IRE)Kyle FreyDan Blacker30/1
11Vronti (GB)Juan J. HernandezH. Graham Motion6/1
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