The conclusion of the horse racing season always brings heightened anticipation, and the Long Island Stakes stands as one of the calendar’s most compelling Grade 3 tests for turf fillies and mares. This signature late-season event frequently attracts a diverse field, pitting established veterans against rising younger stars, often creating incredible opportunities for value for serious handicappers.
Racing aficionados worldwide keenly analyze the field, jockey assignments, and trainer records, knowing a successful wager on this race requires meticulous preparation. We dive deep into the 2025 renewal, providing everything you need—from the official date and expected conditions to a horse-by-horse breakdown—to make informed decisions and secure your successive big win. Prepare your bankroll and sharpen your analysis; the 2025 Long Island Stakes odds present a dynamic puzzle ready for solving.
The Long Island Stakes, a Grade 3 fixture, holds a prestigious place on the New York Racing Association (NYRA) calendar. The race takes place on Saturday, November 8, 2025, at the historic Aqueduct Racetrack in Ozone Park, Queens, New York. Bettors should take note of this location, as the race takes place on the sprawling Aqueduct inner turf course, a challenging surface that demands stamina and strategic riding.
This marathon event, run at 1 3/8 miles (11 furlongs), historically tests the absolute limits of a mare’s staying power, favoring horses whose bloodlines and recent form demonstrate actual depth of endurance over mere speed. The expected post time for the race typically falls in the late afternoon, often serving as a co-feature or the main attraction on a high-octane Saturday card designed to maximize wagering action across North America.
Understanding the Long Island Stakes schedule and location is paramount before committing any capital. Aqueduct serves as the traditional venue for this classic turf route, a distinction that significantly impacts preparation and performance. The sheer length of the race necessitates that trainers structure training regimes specifically to meet the stamina required at Aqueduct, a course renowned for its deep turf and demanding turns. When you analyze the Long Island Stakes betting landscape, always prioritize proven stamina over shorter-distance speed figures, a critical handicapping rule many novice bettors overlook when examining turf races of this distance. Furthermore, the $250,000 purse attracts top-tier talent, guaranteeing a competitive and high-quality field for serious wagering consideration.
Weather conditions in early November in the New York City metropolitan area often prove highly variable, which adds a significant layer of complexity to handicapping turf events at Aqueduct. While the specific forecast for Saturday, November 8, 2025, remains speculative, historical data for this period indicate average high temperatures hovering in the mid-50s Fahrenheit (around 13 °C) and overnight lows dipping into the upper 30s. The challenge for the horses will not only be the length of the race but also the potential for chilly, blustery winds whipping across the open sections of the Aqueduct turf course. This factor can dramatically impact a mare’s ability to settle and conserve energy.
Precipitation presents the other primary variable in analyzing the Long Island Stakes odds. November sees a rising chance of wet days, and any significant rain in the days leading up to the race will transform the turf from firm or good to yielding or soft. Turf specialists know a change in the footing fundamentally alters the race dynamics, heavily favoring European or European-conditioned horses whose training prepares them for softer ground.
We advise bettors to closely monitor local weather reports in the 48 hours leading up to post time. A wet track elevates the chances of deep closers who excel in grinding out finishes through taxing ground, potentially creating massive opportunities for an upset in the Long Island Stakes betting pool. If the turf comes up soft, look for international form and breeding that thrive in those demanding conditions, moving the focus away from horses whose best efforts come on firm, fast footing.
The Long Island Stakes anchors a spectacular weekend of late-fall racing, setting the stage for major stakes action both in New York and across the nation, even as the focus shifts away from the Triple Crown trail. On Saturday, November 8th, Aqueduct presents a compelling card, highlighted by the Grade 3 Long Island Stakes and the Grade 3 Hill Prince Stakes, which features top three-year-old turf runners. This double feature guarantees high-volume betting across all the main verticals and exotic wagers, giving the day a Championship feel. Serious players planning to bet on Long Island Stakes will simultaneously analyze the Hill Prince to spot common trends, track speed biases, and identify hot jockey/trainer combinations dominating the program.
The 2025 Long Island Stakes attracts a competitive field of ten talented fillies and mares, each bringing unique form, pedigree, and connections to the challenging 1 3/8-mile turf contest. A close examination of the morning line Long Island Stakes odds reveals a distinct hierarchy, but the long distance and unpredictability of the late-fall turf mean this race is anything but settled.
Handicappers must carefully weigh the established class of the favorites against the potential value hidden in the longshots, assessing how each horse handles the jump in distance and the demanding Aqueduct course. The presence of international bloodlines, indicated by the GB, SAF, FR, and IRE suffixes, further complicates the puzzle, as these horses often flourish when the ground has some give. We detail the field below, providing the essential details for your Long Island Stakes betting strategy.
| P# | Horse | Age/Sex | Jockey | Wgt | Trainer | M/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Show Sammy Jo (GB) | 5/M | J Ruiz | 123 | H G Motion | 8/1 |
| 2 | Grayosh (KY) | 4/F | F Prat | 125 | C C Brown | 5/1 |
| 3 | Beach Bomb (SAF) | 5/M | J Castellano | 125 | H G Motion | 3/1 |
| 4 | Brocknardini (NY) | 4/F | J R Velazquez | 121 | G Weaver | 20/1 |
| 5 | Lady Firefoot (KY) | 7/M | L R Rivera, Jr. | 121 | M Giddings | 50/1 |
| 6 | Immensitude (FR) | 5/M | J Alvarado | 121 | W I Mott | 4/1 |
| 7 | Alluring Angel (GB) | 5/M | K Carmouche | 121 | W I Mott | 8/1 |
| 8 | Amber Cascade (KY) | 5/M | N Juarez | 121 | M J Maker | 6/1 |
| 9 | Way to Be Marie (KY) | 4/F | M Franco | 123 | R Atras | 5/1 |
| 10 | Fun With Flags (IRE) | 4/F | D Davis | 121 | C C Brown | 15/1 |
Beach Bomb (SAF), representing the powerful stable of H. Graham Motion, starts as the clear morning line favorite at 3/1 and presents a formidable challenge, especially with Hall of Famer Javier Castellano aboard. Motion excels with imported turf talent stretching out in distance, and Beach Bomb’s South African pedigree suggests a preference for the kind of demanding turf course Aqueduct often delivers late in the year.
Grayosh (KY), the co-second choice at 5/1, draws post two for Chad Brown, a trainer whose dominance in turf racing requires no introduction, paired with top rider Flavien Prat. This filly faces a crucial test stretching out, but her tactical speed combined with Prat's finesse makes her a serious contender for any exacta or trifecta ticket in the Long Island Stakes betting pool, offering solid value at her current price.
Immensitude (FR), coming in at a competitive 4/1, presents the primary danger to the top choices, representing the underrated international prowess of trainer William Mott. Jockey Junior Alvarado maintains the partnership, a team known for successful patient rides in distance races. Immensitude's French background suggests stamina, making the 1 3/8 miles distance look like a comfortable trip rather than a grueling task, which implies she could offer significant upside compared to the favorite in the Long Island Stakes odds.
Way to Be Marie (KY), also at 5/1, completes the quartet of significant threats, showing a relentless closing kick for trainer Rudy Atras and jockey Manuel Franco. Her Kentucky breeding suggests a familiarity with the tighter turns of American turf courses, and her recent speed figures indicate she is peaking at precisely the right time, making her an essential inclusion in all serious Long Island Stakes betting considerations.
No Show Sammy Jo (GB), another Graham Motion trainee entering the race at 8/1, offers excellent value considering the barn’s success rate in these types of races. Jockey J. Ruiz takes the reins, a rider often effective with outside turf posts, and the British breeding guarantees the necessary stamina for this grueling distance. This mare, situated just outside the major favorites in the Long Island Stakes odds, deserves a long look, especially if the track comes up yielding. Trainer Mike Maker, a master of claiming and improving fillies for late-season stakes, sends out Amber Cascade (KY) at 6/1, ridden by N. Juarez. Maker's horses often outperform their morning line figures, especially in long turf routes, making Amber Cascade a must-use inclusion when you bet on Long Island Stakes vertical wagers like the superfecta.
Stablemate to Immensitude, Alluring Angel (GB) at 8/1, gives the W. I. Mott stable a potent second entry, providing a tactical advantage in the running style of the two entries. Kent Desormeaux’s former partner, Kendrick Carmouche, secures the mount, a jockey who possesses the necessary experience to navigate the demanding Aqueduct course effectively. Alluring Angel's consistent performance at the 1 1/4-mile distance suggests the extra furlong will not faze her, setting her up to be a late threat.
Brocknardini (NY), carrying a substantial 20/1 morning line, represents the best hope for a major upset, paired with Hall of Fame jockey John R. Velazquez for trainer George Weaver. While her New York-bred status might limit her overall class ceiling, the presence of a top-tier jockey suggests the connections believe she holds a legitimate chance, making her a potential key for hitting a huge payout in the Long Island Stakes betting pools.
Fun With Flags (IRE), a stablemate to Grayosh for trainer Chad Brown, carries a tempting 15/1 morning line, offering bettors a chance at value from a powerful barn, a classic scenario for a sneaky upset. The Irish breeding, like many European imports, implies deep reserves of stamina and an ability to handle varied turf conditions, making her a formidable player if the turf has some softness. Her rider, D. Davis, will need to execute a perfect trip from the outside post, conserving energy until the final turn.
At the bottom of the Long Island Stakes odds board, we find Lady Firefoot (KY) at 50/1, an older mare at seven years old, who faces a significant class hike. Her career earnings and recent form suggest she faces a monumental task against this Grade 3 field, but her presence illustrates the depth of the overall entry. While she is a difficult choice for a win bet, she offers the potential to inflate exotics payouts dramatically for those who bet on Long Island Stakes with large-field superfecta strategies.
The Long Island Stakes boasts a rich history, with its location and distance solidifying its reputation as a true test of stamina and class for distaff turf runners. Historically, the race has seen champions emerge from diverse backgrounds, but certain trends persist, giving modern handicappers concrete data points. Since the race has maintained a Grade 3 designation and a marathon distance over the last decade, we observe a distinct lean toward mares with European bloodlines or those heavily conditioned on marathon routes, emphasizing sustained speed rather than quick bursts. Past winners often showcased consistent form through the fall meet, pointing to horses who truly thrive on the late-season turf.
Analyzing the history of the Long Island Stakes betting shows that while favorites often hit the board, the price for the winner usually drifts slightly from the morning line, reflecting the difficulty of the distance and the competitive nature of the deep fields. Success stories often involve riders who know how to rate a horse patiently, sitting well off the pace before making one decisive run in the long Aqueduct stretch. The most common profile among recent winners includes a Grade 2 or Grade 3 placing at a distance of 1 1/4 miles or longer earlier in the same calendar year. When handicapping the current field, look for horses showing progressive speed figures at these extended distances, which often proves a more reliable indicator than simply looking for recent wins at shorter routes. This historical context solidifies our conviction that analyzing the current Long Island Stakes odds must center on stamina and class.
Successfully navigating the Long Island Stakes betting pools requires a disciplined approach, prioritizing value and form over mere popularity. The race structure, with its deep field and challenging distance, creates immense opportunity for bettors willing to look past the top two or three choices.
US Racing analysis points toward Immensitude (FR) and Amber Cascade (KY) as primary value plays. Immensitude's 4/1 price tag offers excellent value compared to Beach Bomb, given her French pedigree and the Mott barn’s knack for preparing turf marathoners. Amber Cascade at 6/1, trained by the savvy Mike Maker, provides the critical price point needed to anchor exotic wagers like the superfecta and tris.
For maximum conversion and potential returns, consider using a high-probability favorite like Beach Bomb or Grayosh only defensively, focusing your core bankroll on structured exotic wagers that include the high-value horses.
A trifecta keying Beach Bomb (P3) in the first spot, with Immensitude (P6), Grayosh (P2), and Amber Cascade (P8) filling the second and third positions, offers a balanced ticket designed to exploit the discrepancy in the Long Island Stakes odds.
Remember, the true goal is not just picking the winner, but finding the runner that offers the most significant return on investment for the risk taken.
The 2025 Long Island Stakes offers more than just a Grade 3 title; it provides one of the final great opportunities of the year to witness turf stardom and unlock serious wagering value.
From the formidable presence of trainer Chad Brown to the excellent international bloodlines of the Motion and Mott entries, this field is packed with world-class talent ready to conquer Aqueduct’s challenging 1 3/8 miles.
We have provided you with the date, location, essential weather variables, and a deep dive analysis of all ten contenders. Now, the final step rests with you: seize the moment, apply the trends, and capitalize on the generous Long Island Stakes odds. Don’t just watch the race—own the betting board. Stay tuned to US Racing today and transform your insight into cash before the gates fly open.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
