The run to the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) shifts into higher gear this weekend with the $250,000 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds on Saturday.
A field of 11 3-year-olds is entered for the 1 1/16-mile Derby prep, awarding qualifying points of 20-10-6-4-2 to the top five finishers.
The Lecomte is the first of seven consecutive Derby point qualifiers that doubles the point totals awarded after most of the previous preps.
Winning the Lecomte, or any other of the following six preps on the 20-10-6-4-2 Derby points scale, would be a huge boost toward making the Derby field limited to 20 starters.
The next six Derby preps are the UAE 2000 Guineas in Dubai on Jan. 23, the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, all on Jan. 31, and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita and the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, both on Feb. 7.
The point totals increase dramatically beginning with the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 14, and by late February into March, the sliding scale bumps up to 50-25-15-10-5 in many preps, and then to 100-50-25-15-10.
Last year, the final horse to get into the Derby was Baeza, who was No. 21 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard and moved into the field after Rodriguez was a late scratch. Baeza, who finished third in the Derby behind Sovereignty and Journalism, had 37.5 points and had been placed on the also-eligible list in case of a late scratch. Earning 20 points before February puts a 3-year-old halfway home on the road to the Derby at Churchill Downs on May 2.
With that in mind, pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens Friday, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Ted Noffey is the 6-1 favorite (he was 10-1 in pool 1 and 7-1 in pool 2). The unbeaten colt trained by Todd Pletcher could make his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 31.
The Lecomte could be a tipoff for horseplayers ready to go with a longshot as five contenders are in pool 3 at huge odds: Chip Honcho (50-1), Crown the Buckeye (75-1), Mesquite (90-1), Thunder Buck (80-1), and White Tiger (80-1). If one of those horses comes out on top Saturday, you can bet those long odds will drop significantly when the pool closes on Sunday.
A total of 39 horses is listed in the pool, with all other 3-year-olds not on the list, the overall 4-1 choice. The pool features $2 win and exacta wagering.
Ted Noffey is far and away the top choice in pool 3, with the next choices at 10-1 odds – Further Ado for trainer Brad Cox and Paladin for trainer Chad Brown.
Cannoneer, also trained by Cox, is 15-1, while Cox-trained Commandment and Litmus Test, trained by six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, are both 20-1. Cox leads the way with seven horses among the 39 individual betting interests with seven, followed by Baffert with five and Pletcher with four.
There are three additional pools: Feb. 13-15, March 13-15, and April 2-4.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
