Every Kentucky Derby prep race produces at least one horse that forces bettors to stop, zoom out, and ask the uncomfortable question: Is this real, or am I being baited by early-season dominance? In the 2026 Holy Bull Stakes, that horse is Nearly.
On paper, the angle is simple. Nearly has won his last two starts by a combined 14-plus lengths, making him one of the most visually impressive three-year-olds to appear on the Florida circuit this winter. The deeper question, and the one that actually matters for Kentucky Derby betting, is whether that speed and dominance will translate to 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park. If the answer is yes, his current Kentucky Derby odds will not survive Saturday afternoon.
This is not a hype piece. This is a warning.
Blowout wins are common in juvenile racing. Blowout wins against improving three-year-olds are not.
Nearly’s last two races were not just victories. They were statements of control. In both starts, he took command early, dictated pace without resistance, and widened on the field through the lane without showing signs of fatigue. That last part is critical. Many fast horses look dominant early and then flatten. Nearly has been accelerating when others are already asking for mercy.
What separates Nearly from typical speed merchants is efficiency. He is not running hot early fractions and hanging on. He is cruising, relaxing, and then re-engaging. That is the profile of a horse who can stretch out, not collapse.
The Holy Bull Stakes marks the first time Nearly will be asked a real stamina question. Sprint dominance does not automatically convert to two-turn success, especially at Gulfstream, where turns come quickly and position matters.
That said, the evidence leans in his favor.
Nearly’s stride length and energy distribution suggest a horse who is not operating at his ceiling yet. He has been finishing races with his ears up, a small but telling detail. Empty horses do not finish like that. Comfortable horses do.
From a pedigree standpoint, Nearly is not screaming distance limitations. He is built to carry speed, not just flash it. The Holy Bull’s configuration, with a relatively short run to the first turn, actually works in his favor. He does not need to clear by five lengths. He needs position. He gets that naturally.
If Nearly can secure a forward stalking spot rather than being forced into an early duel, the distance becomes less of a threat and more of an opportunity.
One of the most important elements working in Nearly’s favor is the projected pace scenario.
This Holy Bull field includes speed, but not reckless speed. The likely contenders are savvy enough to avoid a suicidal duel, which creates a controlled early tempo. That is exactly the environment where a horse like Nearly thrives.
A soft-to-moderate pace allows him to stay within himself and use his tactical gear when it matters. Gulfstream’s stretch is not forgiving to horses who make one move and stop. It rewards sustained pressure. Nearly’s race profile fits that demand almost perfectly.
If he turns for home within striking distance, the rest of the field will have to prove they can run past him. That is a much harder task than it sounds.
Right now, Nearly exists in a pricing window that will not last if he wins or even dominates visually in defeat. Kentucky Derby odds are not purely mathematical. They are narrative-driven. Bettors respond aggressively to horses who demonstrate:
The Holy Bull checks every box in one afternoon.
A convincing win here would instantly recategorize Nearly from “interesting prospect” to “Florida-based Derby threat.” That shift alone is enough to slash odds dramatically. Futures markets do not wait for confirmation. They anticipate movement, and Saturday’s result will trigger it.
Even a strong second, if achieved the right way, could tighten his price. A win, however, would almost certainly cut his odds in half.
This is not a free square. Nearly is stepping into a deeper field than he has faced so far. He will not be allowed to cruise uncontested. Traffic, kickback, and mid-race pressure are new variables.
There is also the possibility that his dominance has masked flaws that only surface when challenged late. That happens. Fast horses sometimes look invincible until they are forced to pass tired rivals or re-engage after being headed. Still, these are risks worth accepting at his current price. Betting is about risk-adjusted value, not certainty.
The Holy Bull Stakes is not about proving Nearly is good. That question is already answered. It is about proving he is dangerous.
If his speed carries cleanly through 1 1/16 miles, the Kentucky Derby futures market will react immediately. If you believe he belongs at that level, the time to act is before the gate opens, not after the odds board rewrites itself. Saturday is not just a prep race. It is a pricing event. Ignore it at your own expense.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
