Even if you lost money when he fell short in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1), you have to admire Journalism.
He ran his heart out in all three classics, and his courageous rally to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) was unimaginably dramatic. He has speed, courage, and class, with his only shortcoming a knack for finding trouble. He's never been out of the money in eight races, including six stakes, and he's a deserving 4-5 favorite in Saturday's $1 million Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park.
He won't have to face his nemesis, Derby and Belmont hero Sovereignty, but Gosger (9-2) almost beat Journalism in the Preakness, and Burnham Square (5-1) is a Grade 1 winner (Blue Grass Stakes) at 1 1/8 miles, the Haskell distance. The wild card is Goal Oriented (4-1), a distant fourth after a troubled trip in the Preakness, which was only his third start. He's trained by Bob Baffert, winner of a record nine Haskells, and ridden by Eclipse champion Flavien Prat.
Co-owner Aron Wellman is high on Journalism but not overconfident.
“The last three weeks he excelled and told us that he was ready to get back on a plane to go across the country and run in the Haskell,” Wellman said. “We like the timing and all the ingredients about the Haskell. But we aren't looking past it because it's going to be a serious challenge on Saturday. We respect all of the competition. We do like the spacing from Haskell to his next objective.”
Wellman was alluding to the 1 1/4-mile Travers Stakes (G1) on Aug. 23 at Saratoga. A Haskell victory by Journalism would set up a potential matchup against Sovereignty, who will be heavily favored July 26 in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at the Spa. But in horse racing, you can't assume anything, and most projected scenarios don't materialize.
For those who bet on horse racing, here are a few tips that might help identify the Haskell winner.
Was 1-for-6 lifetime before dominating an unimpressive field by seven lengths in the listed Pegasus Stakes over 1 1/16 miles last out at Monmouth. Trailing him were fellow Haskell entrants Wildncrazynight (second) and National Law (fourth). Likely, the pace casualty is in over his head in his first Grade 1.
Betting verdict: Toss
Despite his two losses to Sovereignty, some handicappers think Journalism will prove to be the better horse. That may be, and he should shine in this million-dollar tuneup at the Jersey Shore. Must avoid the traffic trouble that compromised him at Churchill Downs and almost took him down at Pimlico. The obvious horse to beat lies over the field and probably will go off lower than 4-5.
Betting verdict: The pick
Jersey-bred is 2-for-10 and 0-for-4 in ungraded stakes. His career highlight was running second, beaten seven lengths at 31-1 odds, to Bracket Buster in the Pegasus. Doesn't belong in this race. No chance.
Betting verdict: Toss
Gritty grinder lacks early speed and quick acceleration, but just keeps coming. Took the Blue Grass with an extended rally from far back, which is unlikely to occur at speed-favoring Monmouth. He's a must-use if you're playing trifectas and superfectas, because it's a safe bet that he'll be coming on late, but not quickly enough to finish first.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
Here's another no-hoper who's coming in off a distant fourth in the weak Pegasus. He's 2-for-5 overall and has never been in a graded race. Should be in an allowance, not taking on superstar Journalism. Automatic throwout.
Betting verdict: Toss
Nearly went wire to wire in the Preakness, where he built a five-length lead with a furlong to go. Looked long gone in deep stretch before Journalism's otherworldly surge nailed him in the final strides. That was only Gosger's fourth start, and he won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes in his third. Will be on or near the lead again, with Journalism not far behind after letting him get loose in Baltimore. Should hit the board, but can't see him winning.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
Speedy and clearly the best of the double-digit longshots, which really isn't saying much. Positives: He's 3-for-5 lifetime and won a minor stakes at Monmouth. Negatives: It's his first time in a graded event and against first-class opponents. No way.
Betting verdict: Toss
Baffert has owned the Haskell (nine wins), and Prat is the nation's hottest rider, which is why this lightly raced colt (2-for-3) is the second choice after finishing 6 3/4 lengths behind in the Preakness. Will he go off at that price? If so, he'll be an underlay. Then again, ignore Baffert at your own risk, and Goal Oriented has plenty of upside. “He's a big horse and still growing,” Baffert said. “He's been working very well, and I think he's improved.” He should show his best self after 5-furlong moves in :58.60, :58 and :59.20 at Santa Anita. Led throughout (on a sloppy track) at Churchill in his second start and expect Prat to keep him close to the early pace.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
