The road to the Run for the Roses has officially served. What looked like a routine pause atop the Kentucky Derby leaderboard is now a hard stop, and bettors are being forced to reprice the entire 3-year-old picture. The current Derby favorite, Ted Noffey, is no longer simply watching from the sidelines. He has been sidelined indefinitely after being diagnosed with a bone bruise, removing him from the Triple Crown trail and detonating the Kentucky Derby betting market in the process.
In a prep season where timing is everything, injury news like this does not create a gentle ripple. It creates a vacuum. And as Ted Noffey heads to the farm instead of the Fountain of Youth, contenders like Golden Tempo and Litmus Test are stepping directly into the money flow he leaves behind.
Trainer Todd Pletcher confirmed that the undefeated gray colt will be given 90 days off after showing discomfort following a Jan. 23 breeze at Palm Beach Downs. The diagnosis was a bone bruise. The response was decisive. No prep races. No points chase. No Kentucky Derby.
Ted Noffey entered the season as the clear market leader after a flawless juvenile campaign, capped by a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory and an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male. He sat on 40 qualifying points without ever needing to run at three. On paper, he was perfectly positioned.
In reality, history and biology intervened.
Instead of making his seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Ted Noffey is now convalescing in Ocala with a tentative goal of returning later in the summer, possibly at Saratoga. That timeline alone eliminates any realistic Derby scenario and confirms what futures bettors hate most. Dead tickets.
This is not a strategic pause. This is a forced exit.
When a Derby favorite goes down this early, the market does not wait for confirmation. It reacts immediately, because winter-book betting is built on momentum and availability. Ted Noffey was not just the favorite. He was the anchor. His removal forces bookmakers to redistribute probability across a field that suddenly looks far less settled.
| Horse | Fractional | American |
|---|---|---|
| Paladin | 8/1 | +800 |
| Nearly | 8/1 | +800 |
| Boyd | 11/1 | +1100 |
| Blackout Time | 12/1 | +1200 |
| Chief Wallabee | 12/1 | +1200 |
| Canaletto | 14/1 | +1400 |
| Renegade | 14/1 | +1400 |
| Further Ado | 14/1 | +1400 |
| Commandment | 20/1 | +2000 |
| Golden Tempo | 20/1 | +2000 |
| Litmus Test | 22/1 | +2200 |
| Brant | 25/1 | +2500 |
| Thunderously | 25/1 | +2500 |
| Buetane | 30/1 | +3000 |
| Napoleon Solo | 30/1 | +3000 |
| Ewing | 33/1 | +3300 |
| My World | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Satono Voyage | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Iron Honor | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Strategic Risk | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Jackson Hole | 33/1 | +3300 |
| So Happy | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Cannoneer | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Best Green | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Plutarch | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Englishman | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Liberty National | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Pyromancer | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Six Speed | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Courting | 50/1 | +5000 |
| Desert Gate | 50/1 | +5000 |
| Intrepido | 50/1 | +5000 |
| Chip Honcho | 50/1 | +5000 |
| Incredibolt | 50/1 | +5000 |
| D’code | 60/1 | +6000 |
| Spartacus | 64/1 | +6400 |
| Universe | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Blacksmith | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Balboa | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Talkin | 100/1 | +10000 |
Last Updated on 02/16/2026
He also continues a trend bettors have learned to fear. Ted Noffey became the 16th consecutive winter-book favorite who will not even make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. At this point, it is no longer a coincidence. It is a warning label.
With his name effectively removed from serious Derby consideration, money that was parked safely at 6-1 now has to go somewhere. That somewhere is the next tier of contenders with active prep schedules.
Golden Tempo is one of the primary beneficiaries of Ted Noffey’s exit. Sitting on 20 points and pointing toward meaningful prep races, he offers something the former favorite no longer can: certainty of participation.
Pedigree, running style, and distance progression all point in the right direction. More importantly for bettors, Golden Tempo is healthy, racing, and eligible to earn the points required to secure a Derby berth without drama.
The futures market has already started to compress around him. Prices that looked generous a week ago are now attracting disciplined money, not hype. If Golden Tempo delivers in his next start, the odds correction will not be subtle. Horses do not drift upward when the favorite is gone. They snap into place.
Litmus Test enters the conversation from a different angle. Speed-first profiles always gain relevance when the division loses a dominant benchmark. With Ted Noffey removed, the question is no longer “Who can beat him?” It is “Who controls the race dynamics now?”
That question benefits horses like Litmus Test, who already has points, experience, and a trainer unafraid to push early-season development. His odds still reflect distance skepticism, but the bar for inclusion just dropped. A strong prep performance immediately changes how his profile is priced.
In a Derby market suddenly lacking a clear ruler, tactical speed becomes a tradable asset.
Ted Noffey’s bone bruise is not just news. It is another reminder that juvenile dominance does not guarantee Derby participation, let alone Derby success. Futures betting before March is not about picking the best horse. It is about picking the horse most likely to remain sound, eligible, and progressing on schedule. This is why winter-book volatility exists. It is not noise. It is risk being priced in real time.
Bettors who understand this do not chase the shortest number. They chase structural advantage. Right now, that advantage belongs to horses actively earning points while staying out of the vet report.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby odds are no longer shaped around Ted Noffey. They are being rebuilt in his absence. That creates inefficiencies, especially in the middle tiers where perception lags behind reality.
Golden Tempo, Litmus Test, and several others are no longer “alternatives.” They are the market.
This is the phase of the prep season where disciplined bettors thrive and casual money hesitates. The favorite is gone. The board is open. And the next correction will not wait for May.
The Derby trail does not pause for injuries. It simply moves on.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
