| 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions | ||
| PP | Horse / Jockey / Trainer | Fractional |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | RenegadeI. Ortiz Jr. · T. Pletcher | 4/1 |
| 2 | AlbusM. Franco · R. Mott | 30/1 |
| 3 | IntrepidoH. Berrios · J. Mullins | 50/1 |
| 4 | Litmus TestM. García · B. Baffert | 30/1 |
| 6 | CommandmentL. Saez · B. Cox | 6/1 |
| 7 | Danon BourbonA. Nishimura · M. Ikezoe | 20/1 |
| 8 | So HappyM. Smith · M. Glatt | 15/1 |
| 10 | Wonder DeanR. Sakai · D. Takayanagi | 30/1 |
| 11 | IncrediboltJ. Torres · R. Mott | 20/1 |
| 12 | Chief WallabeeJ. Alvarado · B. Mott | 8/1 |
| 14 | PotenteJ. Hernández · B. Baffert | 20/1 |
| 15 | Emerging MarketF. Prat · C. Brown | 15/1 |
| 16 | PavlovianE. Maldonado · D. O'Neill | 30/1 |
| 17 | Six SpeedB. Hernández Jr. · B. Seemar | 50/1 |
| 18 | Further AdoJ. Velazquez · B. Cox | 6/1 |
| 19 | Golden TempoJ. Ortiz · C. DeVaux | 30/1 |
| 21 | Great WhiteA. Achard · J. Ennis | 50/1 |
| 22 | OcelliJ. Ramos · W. Beckman | 50/1 |
| 23 | RobustaE. Jaramillo · D. F. O'Neill | 50/1 |
Last Updated on 05/02/2026
The Kentucky Derby is the most wagered-on horse race in the United States — and USRacing is the single most comprehensive destination for every betting decision you'll make on the 2027 Run for the Roses. This guide combines live odds, in-depth contender analysis, expert picks, and a complete betting education in one authoritative resource. Whether you're placing your first-ever Derby bet or structuring a multi-race exotic ticket, you'll find everything you need here.
The 152nd Kentucky Derby runs on Saturday, May 1st, 2027, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, with a post time of approximately 6:57 PM ET. The purse stands at $5 million — the richest in Derby history — with $3.1 million going to the winner. Up to 20 three-year-old Thoroughbreds will qualify through the Road to the Kentucky Derby points series, with the outcome contested over 1¼ miles of Churchill Downs' historic main track.
BUSR offers the most complete 2026 Kentucky Derby betting menu available — including fixed-odds win betting (lock in your price before it moves), full pari-mutuel exotic wagers, and futures betting available right now. It is the only platform where you can lock in today's prices on Paladin, Renegade, The Puma, or any contender in the field — regardless of how the market moves after their final prep race.
| Race | 152nd Kentucky Derby — The Run for the Roses |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, May 2, 2026 |
| Post Time | Approximately 6:57 PM ET |
| Location | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky |
| Distance | 1¼ Miles (10 Furlongs) — Dirt |
| Purse | $5,000,000 ($3.1M to the winner) |
| Field | Up to 20 Three-Year-Old Thoroughbreds |
| Fixed Odds | Available Now at BUSR — Bet Today's Price |
The road to the 153rd Kentucky Derby has reached its final stretch following the conclusion of all official prep races. With the qualifying season now complete, the focus shifts to the May 2, 2026, race at Churchill Downs.
Renegade, coming off a decisive victory in the Arkansas Derby, has emerged as the clear betting favorite at 4-1. He is joined at the top of the market by his stablemates from the Brad Cox barn, including Commandment (7-1) and the impressive Blue Grass Stakes winner Further Ado (8-1). While the Kentucky Derby futures market remains fluid as connections prepare for the April 25 post-position draw, sharp bettors are currently identifying Fulleffort (23-1) as a notable overlay with legitimate credentials following his Jeff Ruby Steaks performance.
| HORSE | TRAINER | ODDS (04/15) | TEND | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renegade | Todd Pletcher | 4/1 | ▲ Shortening | Favorite |
| Commandment | Brad Cox | 7/1 | ▲ Shortening | Top Contender |
| The Puma | Gustavo Delgado | 12/1 | ▲ Shortening | Top Contender |
| Chief Wallabee | Bill Mott | 13/1 | ▼ Drifting | Top Contender |
| Emerging Market | Chad Brown | 15/1 | → Stable | Top Contender |
| Potente | Bob Baffert | 16/1 | ▲ Shortening | Emerging |
| Further Ado | Brad Cox | 17/1 | ▲ Shortening | Top Contender |
| Cherokee Nation | Bob Baffert | 18/1 | ▲ Shortening | Longshot |
| Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 22/1 | ▲ Shortening | Watch |
| Fulleffort | Brad Cox | 23/1 | ▲ Shortening | Value Play |
| Danon Bourbon | Manabu Ikezoe | 23/1 | ▲ Shortening | Longshot |
| Reagan's Honor | Cherie DeVaux | 27/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Silent Tactic | Mark E. Casse | 32/1 | ▼ Drifting | Contender |
| Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | 32/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Iron Honor | Chad Brown | 34/1 | ▼ Drifting | Watch |
| Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 38/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Wonder Dean (JPN) | Daisuke Takayanagi | 42/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Talk To Me Jimmy | Rudy R. Rodriguez | 48/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Pavlovian | Doug F. O'Neill | 52/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Class President | Todd A. Pletcher | 53/1 | ▼ Drifting | Contender |
| Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 53/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Great White | John Ennis | 57/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Robusta | Doug F. O'Neill | 72/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Buetane | Bob Baffert | 77/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Courting | Todd A. Pletcher | 81/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| So Happy | Mark Glatt | 93/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Six Speed | Bhupat Seemar | 93/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Chip Honcho | Steve Asmussen | 101/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Steel | Bill Mott | 124/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Talkin | Danny Gargan | 129/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Bravaro | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 162/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Albus | Riley Mott | 173/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Creole Chrome | Joe Sharp | 178/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Ottinho | Chad Brown | 208/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Right to Party | Kenny McPeek | 317/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Ocelli | Whit Beckman | 429/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Minorinconvenience | Amelia Green | 541/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Red Zone Runner | Hugo Padillo | 592/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Start the Ride | Dan Blacker | 734/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
Kentucky Derby odds begin forming in November after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but the market undergoes its most significant shifts in four windows. Understanding each window tells you when to bet on futures versus waiting:
| Horse | Commandment | Odds | 6-1 |
| Trainer | Brad Cox | Jockey | Luis Saez |
| Last Prep | Florida Derby (G1) — 1st (Mar 28); 150 Derby Points | ||
| Analysis | The undisputed points leader heading into Churchill Downs, Commandment has reeled off three consecutive stakes wins in Florida, including a gritty nose victory in the Florida Derby. With 150 points and a 4-for-5 career record, he has proven his class and stamina. He transitions to jockey Luis Saez as trainer Brad Cox seeks his second Derby victory. | ||
| Horse | Renegade | Odds | 9-2 |
| Trainer | Todd Pletcher | Jockey | Irad Ortiz Jr. |
| Last Prep | Arkansas Derby (G1) — 1st (Mar 28); 125 Derby Points | ||
| Analysis | Undefeated in 2026, Renegade has surged to the top of the power rankings following his impressive Arkansas Derby win. Todd Pletcher’s colt is a "grinder" with tactical versatility, making him arguably the most professional horse in the gate. With 125 points and Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, he is primed for a massive effort. | ||
| Horse | Further Ado | Odds | 5-1 |
| Trainer | Brad Cox | Jockey | John Velazquez |
| Last Prep | Blue Grass Stakes (G2) — 1st (Apr 4); 135 Derby Points | ||
| Analysis | Another powerhouse from the Brad Cox stable, Further Ado secured his spot with a dominant win in the Blue Grass Stakes. With a pedigree built for distance and a jockey in John Velazquez who knows the Churchill Downs oval intimately, he is a major threat to challenge his stablemate Commandment for favoritism. | ||
| Horse | Chief Wallabee | Odds | 10-1 |
| Trainer | Bill Mott | Jockey | Junior Alvarado |
| Last Prep | Florida Derby (G1) — 3rd (Mar 28) | ||
| Analysis | After narrowly missing in the Fountain of Youth, Chief Wallabee finished third in the Florida Derby. While he hasn't won a major prep this season, his consistency against top-flight competition keeps him in the mix. Bill Mott’s patience is well-documented, and he remains a dangerous closer if the pace sets up correctly. | ||
| Horse | Potente | Odds | 15-1 |
| Trainer | Bob Baffert | Jockey | Juan Hernandez |
| Last Prep | Santa Anita Derby (G1) — 2nd (Apr 4); 100 Derby Points | ||
| Analysis | As the lone starter for Bob Baffert, Potente brings immense talent and a high pedigree ($2.4M yearling purchase) to the race. Despite placing second in the Santa Anita Derby, his early speed and raw ability have made him a focal point for bettors. With 100 points, he is safely in the field, aiming to give Baffert a record-tying 7th Derby victory. | ||
The Kentucky Derby offers the widest range of wagering options of any single race in America. The table below covers every wager type available at BUSR for the 2026 Derby, with real examples using the current field, minimum stakes, and payout potential — from a $1 Win bet to a $0.10 Superfecta and $0.50 Pick 6 targeting a carryover jackpot.
| Bet Type | Category | Difficulty | Example | Min. Stake | Payout Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | Straight | ⭐ Beginner | Commandment finishes 1st | $1 | Moderate |
| Place | Straight | ⭐ Beginner | Commandment finishes 1st or 2nd | $1 | Low–Mod |
| Show | Straight | ⭐ Beginner | Commandment finishes top 3 | $1 | Low |
| Exacta | Exotic | ⭐⭐ Inter. | Commandment 1st, Renegade 2nd — exact order | $1 | Moderate |
| Exacta Box | Exotic | ⭐⭐ Inter. | Commandment + Renegade — either order | $2 | Moderate |
| Trifecta | Exotic | ⭐⭐⭐ Advanced | Exact 1–2–3: Commandment/Renegade/Further Ado | $1 | High |
| Trifecta Box | Exotic | ⭐⭐ Inter. | Any 3 horses, any order for 1–2–3 | $6 | High |
| Superfecta | Exotic | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Expert | Exact 1–2–3–4 finish | $0.10 | Very High |
| Pick 3 / 4 | Multi | ⭐⭐⭐ Advanced | Win 3–4 consecutive races incl. Derby | $0.50 | Very High |
| Pick 5 / 6 | Multi | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Expert | Win 5–6 consecutive races; Pick 6 carryover | $0.50 | Massive |
| Win (Fixed) | Fixed | ⭐ Beginner | Commandment at 6-1 — price locked at bet | $1 | Guaranteed |
Win pays if your horse finishes first. Place pays if your horse finishes first or second. Show pays for a top-three finish. The trade-off is simple — safety comes at the cost of payout. Show bets on short-priced horses at a $5M purse Derby rarely offer a meaningful return after the tote take-out. The best straight-bet approach for the 2027 Derby is targeting Win bets in the 8/1 to 20/1 range, where single-horse risk/reward is most compelling.
Exotic bets require picking multiple horses in the same race. The Exacta predicts the first two finishers in exact order; the Trifecta adds a third; the Superfecta adds a fourth. 'Boxing', a combination, covers all possible orderings at a multiplied cost — a $1 three-horse Exacta box costs $6. The 20-horse Kentucky Derby field regularly produces double-digit placers that generate massive payouts. In 2025, the $1 Trifecta paid $231.12, and the $1 Superfecta paid $1,682.27.
| Best Exotic Play: Use the $0.10 Superfecta box to cover 5 horses at a low cost. At $0.10 minimum, a five-horse Superfecta box costs $12 and covers all 120 possible 1-2-3-4 combinations among your five horses. It is the highest-upside, most cost-efficient exotic structure for a 20-horse Derby field. |
Understanding potential returns before you bet is essential to sizing your positions correctly. The table below shows illustrative payouts for common 2027 Derby wager types. Pari-mutuel returns are estimates — actual payouts fluctuate with pool action. BUSR fixed-odds returns are guaranteed at the time of bet placement.
| Wager | Stake | Approx. Odds | Estimated Profit | Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win: Commandment (6-1) | $20 | 6/1 | $120 | $140 |
| Win: Renegade (9-2) | $20 | 9/2 | $90 | $110 |
| Win: Potente (15-1) | $20 | 15/1 | $300 | $320 |
| Exacta Box: Commandment/Renegade | $2 | ~12-1 | $24 | $26 |
| $1 Trifecta Box (3 horses) | $6 | ~100-1 | $594 | $600 |
| $0.10 Superfecta Box (5 horses) | $12 | ~450-1 | $5,388 | $5,400 |
| $0.50 Pick 5 (6 legs) | $0.50 | ~500-1 | $249.50 | $250 |
| Win (Fixed, BUSR) Commandment 6-1 | $50 | Fixed | $300 | $350 |
| Sizing Tip: Structure your Derby budget across three layers: a moderate Win bet on your top selection (40% of budget), a broader Exacta/Trifecta ticket (40%), and a Superfecta box or multi-race ticket (20%). This approach captures single-horse value while preserving upside in the exotics. |
The Kentucky Derby is the hardest race in America to win as a bettor — but it is also the race with the most potential for large returns. A 20-horse field with compressed odds at the top and legitimate longshots throughout means that the right strategy generates significant profit from a modest investment. The table below captures the eight most proven Derby betting approaches, with 2026-specific applications.
| Strategy | How It Works | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Fade the Favorite | Derby favorites win ~30% of the time. While Renegade is the current favorite, Commandment and Further Ado from the Brad Cox barn offer competitive value at their respective price points. Avoid leaning too heavily on a single favorite in a 20-horse field. | Medium |
| Speed Figure Focus | Commandment's 101 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth remains the benchmark of the 2026 season. Horses like Renegade and Further Ado have also displayed elite speed figures in their respective final preps, validating their positions atop the market. | Low |
| Trainer Angle | Prioritize trainers with proven Derby records: Pletcher (Renegade), Cox (Commandment, Further Ado), and Baffert (Potente). Cox’s two-pronged attack with Commandment and Further Ado provides a tactical advantage in the final stretch. | Low–Med |
| Connections Repeat | The Puma remains a key value play, continuing to draw comparisons to the 2023 winner Mage. Following connections that have navigated the Derby field previously, like Baffert or Pletcher, remains a highly effective pattern-recognition edge. | Medium |
| Exotic Wheeling | Select a strong opinion horse 'on top' across Exacta/Trifecta tickets, then spread wider in lower positions. Example: Commandment on top of 5 horses in an Exacta part-wheel for $5 total exposure. | Medium |
| $0.10 Superfecta Box | Cover 4–5 horses in a $0.10 Superfecta box for $12–$24 total cost. Including longshots like Potente or Fulleffort alongside the favorites can yield significant four-to-five-figure returns if the favorites underperform. | Med–High |
| Fixed Odds Lock-In | Bet BUSR fixed odds on contenders now, before the final field is locked and post positions are drawn. Commandment has tightened from 9-1 to 6-1, and Renegade has shifted from 12-1 to 9-2 as their Derby statuses solidified. | Low |
| Post Position Filter | Posts 5–10 continue to produce the most Derby winners historically. Extreme outside posts (17–20) remain a disadvantage. Monitor the upcoming post-position draw on April 25 to finalize your final betting strategy. | Low |
The Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying system awards points to the top five finishers in designated prep races from September through mid-April. The 20 horses with the most points — plus international qualifiers — earn a starting spot. Knowing which preps carry the most points and which have the strongest predictive track record for the Derby is essential to identifying value in the futures market.
| Race | Track | Date | Points | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain of Youth (G2) | Gulfstream Park | Feb 28 | 50 pts | Commandment (1st); Chief Wallabee (2nd) |
| Louisiana Derby (G2) | Fair Grounds | Mar 21 | 100 pts | Emerging Market (1st); Pavlovian (2nd) |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) | Turfway Park | Mar 21 | 100 pts | Fulleffort (1st); Stark Contrast (2nd) |
| Florida Derby (G1) | Gulfstream Park | Mar 28 | 100 pts | Commandment (1st); Nearly (2nd); Chief Wallabee (3rd) |
| Arkansas Derby (G1) | Oaklawn Park | Mar 28 | 100 pts | Renegade (1st); Class President (2nd) |
| Santa Anita Derby (G1) | Santa Anita | Apr 4 | 100 pts | Litmus Test (1st); Potente (2nd) |
| Blue Grass Stakes (G1) | Keeneland | Apr 4 | 100 pts | Further Ado (1st); Paladin (2nd) |
Run at 1 1/16 miles, the Fountain of Youth awards 50 points (Championship Series structure) to the winner and is Florida's most important early Kentucky Derby prep race. In 2026, Commandment surged to the top of the leaderboard with a neck-victory, posting a 101 Beyer — the fastest speed figure of any 2026 prep to date. Chief Wallabee finished a game second with a 100 Beyer, setting the stage for a high-stakes rematch in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28.
| → Read more: Fountain of Youth Stakes 2026 — Results, Recap, and Kentucky Derby Implications |
The Gotham, contested at one mile at Aqueduct on March 1, is New York's primary early Derby qualifying race. Iron Honor (Chad Brown) won the 2026 running, moving from 122-1 to 25-1 in the futures market overnight. Brown trains both Iron Honor and Paladin, giving his barn two legitimate Derby paths from different prep routes. The Gotham winner has historically faced a step up in competition at the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass.
| → Read more: Gotham Stakes 2026 — Results and Kentucky Derby Qualifying Impact |
The most prestigious West Coast Derby prep, awarding 100 points to the winner at 1 1/8 miles. Bob Baffert typically uses this race to finalize his Churchill Downs squad. Potente is the 2026 target — a win here at 15-1 current odds would almost certainly install him as a top-5 market choice and move him to 8-1 or shorter. Baffert horses from the Santa Anita Derby have produced multiple Kentucky Derby winners.
| → Read more: Santa Anita Derby 2026 — Odds, Contenders and Churchill Downs Roadmap |
Run at 1 1/8 miles at Keeneland — a track whose surface characteristics most closely mirror Churchill Downs — the Blue Grass is considered the most 'local' and telling of all major Derby preps. Paladin is targeting the Blue Grass as his final start before Churchill Downs. A dominant win would likely make him odds-on or close to it; a loss would trigger a major market reshuffling. The single most important 2026 Derby betting event is still on the calendar.
| → Read more: Blue Grass Stakes 2026 — Paladin, Odds and Kentucky Derby Implications |
BUSR is built for serious Derby bettors. From locking in fixed-odds prices weeks before post time to placing a $0.10 Superfecta on race day, everything you need is in one place — with same-day payouts and no download required.
| Fixed Odds | Lock in your price before post time. The odds you bet are the odds you get paid — no tote fluctuation, no surprises. |
|---|---|
| Full Exotics | Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double, Pick 3/4/5/6 — every wager type available in one platform. |
| Derby Futures | Bet the Derby winner now at today’s prices. Lock in value before the final preps compress the market. |
| Fast Payouts | 24-hour Bitcoin payouts. Crypto-friendly deposits. Winnings in your account the same day you collect. |
| Racebook Rebate | Industry-leading 10% Racebook rebate. More tracks than anyone. Every race, every day. |
| No Download | Bet from your browser on desktop or mobile. No app required — full wagering capability on race day from anywhere. |
With the strategy framework above in place, here is where US Racing’s handicappers are putting their money. The following picks are current as of March 17, 2026 — seven weeks out, with four critical 100-point preps still to run. These are actionable bets, not just analysis.
| USRacing Expert Analysis — 2026 Kentucky Derby |
|---|
| [SOLID BET] Renegade (10-1) — Todd Pletcher's best Derby horse in years. Won the Sam F. Davis by 3¾ lengths. Two Derby wins for Pletcher (Super Saver, Always Dreaming). Arkansas Derby on March 28 is the final prep — a win likely compresses him to 6-1 or shorter. Current 10-1 is the last good price. |
| [VALUE PLAY] Canaletto (15-1) — Brother to Arkansas Derby winner Sandman. Posted a 109 speed figure in the Tampa Bay Derby despite finishing third. Todd Pletcher trains both Renegade and Canaletto — dual threats. 15-1 underestimates his ceiling at 10 furlongs. The Florida Derby is next. |
| [LONGSHOT] The Puma (25-1) — Same connections as 2023 Derby winner Mage — Delgado/Restrepo/Castellano. Won the Tampa Bay Derby in only his third career start. 89 Beyer needs to improve, but these connections have proven they can peak a horse on Derby Day. Excellent $0.10 Superfecta inclusion. |
| [SPECULATIVE] Potente (15-1) — Bob Baffert's top prospect. Won the San Felipe Stakes in only his second career start — exceptional. At 15-1, there is still upside if he dominates the Santa Anita Derby (G1, April 4). Baffert is 7-for-all-time in the Derby. Don't fade without reason. |
| [UNDERLAY] Paladin (5-1) — Talented and unbeaten, but Chad Brown's 0-for-9 Derby record is statistically significant at this price. Use in exotics but avoid as a straight Win bet. If Blue Grass is dominant and he shortens to 3-1, pass entirely. |
| USRacing Expert Analysis — 2026 Kentucky Derby |
|---|
| [SOLID BET] Renegade (9-2) — Todd Pletcher’s clear top Derby contender. Cemented his status with a decisive victory in the Arkansas Derby. Now with 125 qualifying points and Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, he is the horse to beat at Churchill Downs. The current 9-2 price reflects his established dominance this spring. |
| [VALUE PLAY] Commandment (6-1) — Brad Cox’s flagship runner. Proven stamina, having secured victories in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. With 150 qualifying points and a 4-for-5 record, he is arguably the most reliable Win candidate in the field. 6-1 offers excellent value for a leading points earner. |
| [LONGSHOT] Potente (15-1) — Bob Baffert’s standout prospect. Despite placing second in the Santa Anita Derby, his raw talent and $2.4M pedigree remain elite. Baffert’s ability to peak horses for the first Saturday in May is legendary. At 15-1, he represents a high-upside play for those looking beyond the chalk. |
| [SPECULATIVE] Further Ado (5-1) — The secondary powerhouse from the Brad Cox barn. His dominant Blue Grass Stakes win proved he has the turn of foot necessary to compete at the classic 10-furlong distance. John Velazquez's experience at Churchill Downs makes him a dangerous tactical threat. |
| [UNDERLAY] Paladin (8-1) — Initially the market favorite, his second-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes has cooled expectations. Given Chad Brown’s historical struggles to land the Derby (0-for-9), his current odds may still be too short compared to other proven winners in the field. Use in exotics, but caution is advised for straight Win bets. |
Derby Day at Churchill Downs is the highest-handle, fastest-moving betting market in American horse racing. Total handle regularly exceeds $300 million across all pools — and that volume creates both compressed odds-on favorites and overlay value on longshots who receive proportionally less money than their actual winning chances merit. Here is how to navigate the day.
| Time (ET) | What to Do |
|---|---|
| 9:00 AM ET | Early pools open. Morning line released. Check Churchill Downs' official weather and track condition report — a sloppy or muddy track dramatically changes betting strategy. |
| 9 AM–12 PM | Supporting undercard races begin. Review final jockey assignments, equipment changes, and late scratch reports posted at Churchill Downs. |
| 12–5 PM | Multi-race sequence legs begin. Pick 6, Pick 5, and Pick 4 pools open. Place your multi-race tickets before the first leg of your sequence — you cannot add after racing starts. |
| 5–6:45 PM | Derby odds firm. Last window to buy fixed-odds on BUSR or adjust Win/Exacta exposure. Final post-position-draw data factored into late market movement. |
| 6:45 PM | Horses enter the paddock. Watch for equipment changes (blinkers, tongue ties) — late additions are a signal from trainers about a horse's readiness. |
| 6:57 PM | Post time. Gates open. Churchill Downs pari-mutuel pools close. BUSR fixed-odds positions are locked from the moment you bet. |
| 7:00 PM | Race runs in approximately 2 minutes. Watch live free on BUSR — stream unlocks under your bet slip once your Derby wager is placed. Results are official within minutes, and payouts are credited instantly. |
The Churchill Downs surface condition — fast, good, muddy, sloppy, or heavy — is one of the most important late-breaking variables in Derby wagering. Check the Louisville weather forecast on Friday, May 1, and adjust your strategy accordingly:
| Weather Watch: If significant rain is forecast for Louisville on Friday–Saturday, reconsider any Win bets on pure speed types and restructure your exotic tickets to include closers and mudders at high prices. A sloppy Churchill Downs surface is the single biggest wild card in Derby betting. |
Historical winners are one of the most valuable handicapping tools available. Trainer patterns, jockey trends, and winning odds ranges repeat far more often than most bettors realize. The table below covers the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners. Use it to validate your 2027 selections against proven winning profiles.
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Golden Tempo | José Ortíz | Cherie De Vaux | 2:02.27 |
| 2025 | Sovereignty | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott | 2:02.31 |
| 2024 | Mistik Dan | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. | Kenneth G. McPeek | 2:03.34 |
| 2023 | Mage | Javier Castellano | Gustavo Delgado | 2:01.57 |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | Sonny Leon | Eric R. Reed | 2:02.61 |
| 2021 | Medina Spirit | John Velazquez | Bob Baffert | 2:01.01 |
| 2020 | Authentic | John Velazquez | Bob Baffert | 2:00.61 |
| 2019 | Country House | Flavien Prat | W. Mott | 2:03:93 |
| 2018 | Justify | Mike E. Smith | Bob Baffert | 2:04.20 |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 2:03.59 |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Mario Guiterrez | Doug O'Neill | 2:01.31 |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 2:03.02 |
| 2014 | California Chrome | Victor Espinoza | Art Sherman | 2:03.66 |
| 2013 | Orb | Joel Rosario | Shug McGaughey | 2:02 4/5 |
| 2012 | I'll Have Another | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O'Neill | 2:01.83 |
| 2011 | Animal Kingdom | John R. Velazquez | H. Graham Motion | 2:02.04 |
| 2010 | Super Saver | Calvin Borel | Todd Pletcher | 2:04.45 |
| 2009 | Mine That Bird | Calvin Borel | Bennie Woolley Jr. | 2:02.66 |
| 2008 | Big Brown | Kent Desormeaux | Rick Dutrow | 2:01.82 |
| 2007 | Street Sense | Calvin Borel | Carl Nafzger | 2:02.17 |
| 2006 | Barbaro | Edgar Prado | Michael Matz | 2:01.36 |
| 2005 | Giacomo | Mike Smith | John Shirreffs | 2:02.75 |
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | Stewart Elliott | John Servis | 2:04.06 |
| 2003 | Funny Cide | Jos Santos | Barclay Tagg | 2:01.19 |
| 2002 | War Emblem | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 2:01.13 |
| 2001 | Monarchos | Jorge Chavez | John Ward Jr. | 1:59.97 |
| 2000 | Fusaichi Pegasus | Kent Desormeaux | Neil Drysdale | 2:01 |
| 1999 | Charismatic | Chris Antley | D. Wayne Lukas | 2:03 1/5 |
| 1998 | Real Quiet | Kent Desormeaux | Bob Baffert | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1997 | Silver Charm | Gary Stevens | Bob Baffert | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1996 | Grindstone | Jerry Bailey | D. Wayne Lukas | 2:01 |
| 1995 | Thunder Gulch | Gary Stevens | D. Wayne Lukas | 2:01 1/5 |
| 1994 | Go for Gin | Chris McCarron | Nick Zito | 2:03 3/5 |
| 1993 | Sea Hero | Jerry Bailey | Mack Miller | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1992 | Lil E. Tee | Pat Day | Lynn Whiting | 2:03 |
| 1991 | Strike the Gold | Chris Antley | Nick Zito | 2:03 |
| 1990 | Unbridled | Craig Perret | Carl Nafzger | 2:02 |
| 1989 | Sunday Silence | Pat Valenzuela | Charlie Whittingham | 2:05 |
| 1988 | Winning Colors | Gary Stevens | D. Wayne Lukas | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1987 | Alysheba | Chris McCarron | Jack Van Berg | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1986 | Ferdinand | Bill Shoemaker | Charlie Whittingham | 2:02 4/5 |
| 1985 | Spend a Buck | Angel Cordero, Jr. | Cam Gambolati | 2:00 1/5 |
| 1984 | Swale | Laffit Pincay, Jr. | Woody Stephens | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1983 | Sunnys Halo | Eddie Delahoussaye | David Cross Jr. | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1982 | Gato Del Sol | Eddie Delahoussaye | Eddie Gregson | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1981 | Pleasant Colony | Jorge Velasquez | John Campo | 2:02 |
| 1980 | Genuine Risk | Jacinto Vasquez | LeRoy Jolley | 2:02 |
| 1979 | Spectacular Bid | Ron Franklin | Bud Delp | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1978 | Affirmed | Steve Cauthen | Laz Barrera | 2:01 1/5 |
| 1977 | Seattle Slew | Jean Cruguet | Billy Turner | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1976 | Bold Forbes | Angel Cordero, Jr. | Laz Barrera | 2:01 3/5 |
| 1975 | Foolish Pleasure | Jacinto Vasquez | LeRoy Jolley | 2:02 |
| 1974 | Cannonade | Angel Cordero, Jr. | Woody Stephens | 2:04 |
| 1973 | Secretariat | Ron Turcotte | Lucien Laurin | 1:59 2/5 |
| 1972 | Riva Ridge | Ron Turcotte | Lucien Laurin | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1971 | Canonero II | Gustavo Avila | Juan Arias | 2:03 1/5 |
| 1970 | Dust Commander | Mike Manganello | Don Combs | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1969 | Majestic Prince | Bill Hartack | Johnny Longden | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1968 | Forward Pass | Ismael Valenzuela | Henry Forrest | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1967 | Proud Clarion | Bobby Ussery | Loyd Gentry | 2:00 3/5 |
| 1966 | Kauai King | Don Brumfield | Henry Forrest | 2:02 |
| 1965 | Lucky Debonair | Bill Shoemaker | Frank Catrone | 2:01 1/5 |
| 1964 | Northern Dancer | Bill Hartack | Horatio Luro | 2:00 |
| 1963 | Chateaugay | Braulio Baeza | James Conway | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1962 | Decidedly | Bill Hartack | Horatio Luro | 2:00 2/5 |
| 1961 | Carry Back | John Sellers | Jack Price | 2:04 |
| 1960 | Venetian Way | Bill Hartack | Victor Sovinski | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1959 | Tomy Lee | Bill Shoemaker | Frank Childs | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1958 | Tim Tam | Ismael Valenzuela | Horace A. "Jimmy" Jones | 2:05 |
| 1957 | Iron Liege | Bill Hartack | Horace A. "Jimmy" Jones | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1956 | Needles | David Erb | Hugh Fontaine | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1955 | Swaps | Bill Shoemaker | Mesh Tenney | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1954 | Determine | Raymond York | Willie Molter | 2:03 |
| 1953 | Dark Star | Hank Moreno | Eddie Hayward | 2:02 |
| 1952 | Hill Gail | Eddie Arcaro | Ben A. Jones | 2:01 3/5 |
| 1951 | Count Turf | Conn McCreary | Sol Rutchick | 2:02 3/5 |
| 1950 | Middleground | William Boland | Max Hirsch | 2:01 3/5 |
| 1949 | Ponder | Steve Brooks | Ben A. Jones | 2:04 1/5 |
| 1948 | Citation | Eddie Arcaro | Ben A. Jones | 2:05 2/5 |
| 1947 | Jet Pilot | Eric Guerin | Tom Smith | 2:06 4/5 |
| 1946 | Assault | Warren Mehrtens | Max Hirsch | 2:06 3/5 |
| 1945 | Hoop Jr | Eddie Arcaro | Ivan Parke | 2:07 |
| 1944 | Pensive | Conn McCreary | Ben A. Jones | 2:04 1/5 |
| 1943 | Count Fleet | Johnny Longden | Don Cameron | 2:04 |
| 1942 | Shut Out | Wayne Wright | John M. Gaver | 2:04 2/5 |
| 1941 | Whirlaway | Eddie Arcaro | Ben A. Jones | 2:01 2/5 |
| 1940 | Gallahadion | Carroll Bierman | Roy Waldron | 2:05 |
| 1939 | Johnstown | James Stout | Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1938 | Lawrin | Eddie Arcaro | Ben A. Jones | 2:04 4/5 |
| 1937 | War Admiral | Charley Kurtsinger | George Conway | 2:03 1/5 |
| 1936 | Bold Venture | Ira Hanford | Max Hirsch | 2:03 3/5 |
| 1935 | Omaha | Willie Saunders | Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons | 2:05 |
| 1934 | Cavalcade | Mack Garner | Bob Smith | 2:04 |
| 1933 | Brokers Tip | Don Meade | Henry J. "Dick" Thompson | 2:06 4/5 |
| 1932 | Burgoo King | Eugene James | Henry J. "Dick" Thompson | 2:05 1/5 |
| 1931 | Twenty Grand | Charley Kurtsinger | James Rowe, Jr. | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1930 | Gallant Fox | Earl Sande | Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons | 2:07 3/5 |
| 1929 | Clyde Van Dusen | Linus McAtee | Clyde Van Dusen | 2:10 4/5 |
| 1928 | Reigh Count | Chick Lang | Bert Micchell | 2:10 2/5 |
| 1927 | Whiskery | Linus McAtee | Fred Hopkins | 2:06 |
| 1926 | Bubbling Over | Albert Johnson | Henry J. "Dick" Thompson | 2:03 4/5 |
| 1925 | Flying Ebony | Earl Sande | William Duke | 2:07 3/5 |
| 1924 | Black Gold | John D. Mooney | Hanley Webb | 2:05 1/5 |
| 1923 | Zev | Earl Sande | David J. Leary | 2:05 2/5 |
| 1922 | Morvich | Albert Johnson | Fred Burlew | 2:04 3/5 |
| 1921 | Behave Yourself | Charles Thompson | Henry J. "Dick" Thompson | 2:04 1/5 |
| 1920 | Paul Jones | Ted Rice | Billy Garth | 2:09 |
| 1919 | Sir Barton | Johnny Loftus | H. Guy Bedwell | 2:09 4/5 |
| 1918 | Exterminator | William Knapp | Henry McDaniel | 2:10 4/5 |
| 1917 | Omar Khayyam | Charles Borel | C.T. Patterson | 2:04 3/5 |
| 1916 | George Smith | Johnny Loftus | Hollie Hughes | 2:04 |
| 1915 | Regret | Joe Notter | James Rowe, Sr. | 2:05 2/5 |
| 1914 | Old Rosebud | John McCabe | F. D. Weir | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1913 | Donerail | Roscoe Goose | Thomas Hayes | 2:04 4/5 |
| 1912 | Worth | Carol Shilling | Frank Taylor | 2:09 2/5 |
| 1911 | Meridian | George Archibald | Albert Ewing | 2:05 |
| 1910 | Donau | Fred Herbert | George Ham | 2:06 2/5 |
| 1909 | Wintergreen | Vincent Powers | Charles Mack | 2:08 1/5 |
| 1908 | Stone Street | Arthur Pickens | J. W. Hall | 2:15 1/5 |
| 1907 | Pink Star | Andy Minder | W. H. Fizer | 2:12 3/5 |
| 1906 | Sir Huon | Roscoe Troxler | Pete Coyne | 2:08 4/5 |
| 1905 | Agile | Jack Martin | Robert Tucker | 2:10 3/4 |
| 1904 | Elwood | Shorty Prior | C. E. Durnell | 2:08 1/2 |
| 1903 | Judge Himes | Hal Booker | J. P. Mayberry | 2:09 |
| 1902 | Alan-a-Dale | Jimmy Winkfield | T. C. McDowell | 2:08 3/4 |
| 1901 | His Eminence | Jimmy Winkfield | F. P. Van Meter | 2:07 3/4 |
| 1900 | Lieut. Gibson | Jimmy Boland | Charles Hughes | 2:06 1/4 |
| 1899 | Manuel | Fred Taral | Robert J. Walden | 2:12 |
| 1898 | Plaudit | Willie Simms | John E. Madden | 2:09 |
| 1897 | Typhoon II | Buttons Garner | J. C. Cahn | 2:12 1/2 |
| 1896 | Ben Brush | Willie Simms | Hardy Campbell | 2:07 3/4 |
| 1895 | Halma | Soup Perkins | Byron McClelland | 2:37 1/2 |
| 1894 | Chant | Frank Goodale | Eugene Leigh | 2:41 |
| 1893 | Lookout | E. Kunze | William McDaniel | 2:39 1/4 |
| 1892 | Azra | Lonnie Clayton | John Morris | 2:41 1/2 |
| 1891 | Kingman | Isaac Murphy | Dud Allen | 2:52 1/4 |
| 1890 | Riley | Isaac Murphy | Edward Corrigan | 2:45 |
| 1889 | Spokane | Thomas Kiley | John Rodegap | 2:34 1/2 |
| 1888 | Macbeth II | George Covington | John Campbell | 2:38 |
| 1887 | Montrose | Isaac Lewis | John McGinty | 2:39 1/4 |
| 1886 | Ben Ali | Paul Duffy | Jim Murphy | 2:36 1/2 |
| 1885 | Joe Cotton | Babe Henderson | Alex Perry | 2:37 1/4 |
| 1884 | Buchanan | Isaac Murphy | William Bird | 2:40 1/4 |
| 1883 | Leonatus | Billy Donohue | John McGinty | 2:43 |
| 1882 | Apollo | Babe Hurd | Green Morris | 2:40 |
| 1881 | Hindoo | Jim McLaughlin | James Rowe, Sr. | 2:40 |
| 1880 | Fonso | George Lewis | Tice Hutsell | 2:37 1/2 |
| 1879 | Lord Murphy | Charlie Shauer | George Rice | 2:37 |
| 1878 | Day Star | J. Carter | Lee Paul | 2:37 1/4 |
| 1877 | Baden Baden | Billy Walker | Ed Brown (aka "Dick") | 2:38 |
| 1875 | Aristides | Oliver Lewis | Ansel Williamson | 2:37 3/4 |
Q: When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby, and what time does it start?
A: The 152nd Kentucky Derby runs on Saturday, May 1st, 2027, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Post time is approximately 6:57 PM ET. BUSR members who place a Kentucky Derby wager get free live access to the race stream directly under their bet slip. The total purse is $5 million, with $3.1 million awarded to the winner.
Q: Who is the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite?
A: As of March 18, 2026, Paladin (trained by Chad Brown) is the 13/2 favorite at BUSR. Nearly and Commandment (both 9/1) and Chief Wallabee (11/1) are the next closest challengers. The market is wide open with four critical 100-point qualifying races still to run in late March and early April.
Q: How do I bet on the Kentucky Derby online?
A: Create an account at BUSR, fund it, navigate to the Churchill Downs May 2 race card, select Race 12 (the Kentucky Derby), choose your bet type (Win, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, etc.), enter your stake, and confirm. BUSR offers both pari-mutuel tote wagering and fixed-odds win betting — unique in the U.S. market. Minimum wagers start at $1 for straight bets and $0.10 for Superfecta combinations.
Q: What does fixed-odds betting mean for the Kentucky Derby?
A: Fixed-odds betting — available at BUSR — means your payout is guaranteed at the price displayed when you place your bet, regardless of how the tote market moves afterward. If you bet Paladin at 5-1 today and he shortens to 3-1 by race day, you still collect at 5-1. This is the key advantage of betting futures early on a contender before their final prep race compresses their price.
Q: What is the best bet for the Kentucky Derby?
A: For most bettors, the best risk/reward combination is a modest Win bet on a 10-1 to 25-1 horse you believe in, backed by a $1 Trifecta part-wheel and a $0.10 Superfecta box. This structure gives you meaningful upside from a longshot win while also capturing the most likely scenario in a wide-open field — that a mix of favorites and mid-priced horses fill the top three or four positions.
Q: What is the minimum bet for the Kentucky Derby?
A: The minimum Win/Place/Show bet at BUSR Racebook is $1. The Exacta minimum is $1. The Superfecta minimum is $0.10, making it possible to cover large combinations cheaply. Multi-race minimums (Pick 3, 4, 5, 6) range from $0.50 to $2 per combination.
Q: How do Kentucky Derby odds work?
A: Traditional Derby wagering is pari-mutuel: all bets go into a communal pool, the track takes a cut (typically 17-20%), and the remainder is divided among winning tickets. Odds reflect how much of the pool is bet on each horse and fluctuate continuously until post time. BUSR's fixed-odds format is a sportsbook-style market where the house sets a price and guarantees that price at the time you bet.
Q: What prep races most affect Kentucky Derby odds?
A: The four most influential races are the 100-point qualifiers in late March and early April: the Florida Derby (Gulfstream, March 28), Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn, March 28), Santa Anita Derby (April 4), and Blue Grass Stakes (Keeneland, April 4). Winners of these races produce a disproportionate share of Derby podium finishes and typically see their odds compress by 30-50% overnight after a dominant performance.
Q: What is the Kentucky Derby Future Wager?
A: The Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) is an official pari-mutuel product from Churchill Downs, run across six pools from November through April. Bettors can bet individual horses or the 'All Other 3-Year-Olds' catchall entry, which captures horses not yet individually listed. Pool 5 opened on March 13, 2026. BUSR offers a fixed-odds alternative with guaranteed returns.
Q: Is online Kentucky Derby betting legal in the USA?
A: BUSR is available online and on mobile. Visit BUSR to confirm availability in your area before registering.
Q: What happened in recent Kentucky Derby exacta and superfecta payouts?
A: Recent Derby exotic payouts illustrate the race's massive payout potential. In 2025, the $1 Trifecta (Sovereignty/Journalism/Baeza) paid $231.12 and the $1 Superfecta paid $1,682.27 — and the $1 Super High-Five paid $38,405.96. These are not anomalies — the Derby's 20-horse field regularly produces longshot placers that generate four and five-figure exotic returns.
From a $1 Win bet to a fixed-odds futures wager locked in today — BUSR has every Kentucky Derby wager available. Odds are moving now. Don't wait for the Blue Grass to act.
When is the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, May 1st, 2027
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby?
At BUSR: Odds are Live!
What channel is the Kentucky Derby on?
Watch the Kentucky Derby live on TV with NBC at 5:00 pm EST
Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks, the "twin spires design," "Road to the Roses" and Churchill Downs Incorporated-related trademarks are registered trademarks of Churchill Downs Incorporated or its affiliates (collectively CDI). CDI does not sponsor or endorse, and is not associated or affiliated with US Racing or its products, services or promotions. US Racing provides free information, odds, facts and commentary about the Kentucky Derby and horse racing and betting, in general. Third party marks may be referenced in a transformative, editorial, informational, nominative, critical, analytical or comparative context. US Racing may reference marks belonging to third parties pursuant to our right to engage in fair use, fair comment, statutory fair use or trade mark fair use doctrine. As such, US Racing does not contribute to any dilution of any trade or service marks. US Racing provides this information in an effort to educate and grow the sport of thoroughbred racing in North America with an emphasis on attracting new fans of the sport.
