The Kentucky Derby is the most wagered-on horse race in the United States — and USRacing is the single most comprehensive destination for every betting decision you'll make on the 2026 Run for the Roses. This guide combines live odds, in-depth contender analysis, expert picks, and a complete betting education in one authoritative resource. Whether you're placing your first-ever Derby bet or structuring a multi-race exotic ticket, you'll find everything you need here.
The 152nd Kentucky Derby runs on Saturday, May 2, 2026, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, with a post time of approximately 6:57 PM ET. The purse stands at $5 million — the richest in Derby history — with $3.1 million going to the winner. Up to 20 three-year-old Thoroughbreds will qualify through the Road to the Kentucky Derby points series, with the outcome contested over 1¼ miles of Churchill Downs' historic main track.
BUSR offers the most complete 2026 Kentucky Derby betting menu available — including fixed-odds win betting (lock in your price before it moves), full pari-mutuel exotic wagers, and futures betting available right now. It is the only platform where you can lock in today's prices on Paladin, Renegade, The Puma, or any contender in the field — regardless of how the market moves after their final prep race.
| Race | 152nd Kentucky Derby — The Run for the Roses |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, May 2, 2026 |
| Post Time | Approximately 6:57 PM ET |
| Location | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky |
| Distance | 1¼ Miles (10 Furlongs) — Dirt |
| Purse | $5,000,000 ($3.1M to the winner) |
| Field | Up to 20 Three-Year-Old Thoroughbreds |
| Fixed Odds | Available Now at BUSR — Bet Today's Price |
| HORSE | TRAINER | ODDS (03/17) | TEND | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paladin | Chad Brown | 13/2 | ▲ Shortening | Favorite |
| Commandment | Brad Cox | 9/1 | ▲ Shortening | Top Contender |
| Nearly | Todd Pletcher | 8/1 | ▲ Shortening | Top Contender |
| Chief Wallabee | Bill Mott | 8/1 | ▼ Drifting | Top Contender |
| Renegade | Todd Pletcher | 12/1 | → Stable | Top Contender |
| Canaletto | Chad Brown | 15/1 | ▲ Shortening | Value Play |
| Potente | Bob Baffert | 15/1 | ▲ Shortening | Emerging |
| Iron Honor | Chad Brown | 20/1 | ▲ Shortening | Watch |
| The Puma | Gustavo Delgado | 20/1 | ▲ Shortening | Value Play |
| Cherokee Nation | Bob Baffert | 30/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Danon Bourbon | Hiroyasu Tanaka | 40/1 | ▲ Shortening | Longshot |
| Al Haram | Abdullah Alsidrani | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Silent Tactic | Mark E. Casse | 12/1 | → Stable | Top Contender |
| Boyd | Bob Baffert | 16/1 | → Stable | Contender |
| Class President | Todd A. Pletcher | 16/1 | → Stable | Contender |
| Blackout Time | Kenneth G. McPeek | 16/1 | → Stable | Contender |
| Further Ado | Brad H. Cox | 20/1 | → Stable | Contender |
| Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 30/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Chip Honcho | Todd Pletcher | 33/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 33/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | 33/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Buteane | Bob Baffert | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Pyromancer | K Yoshimura | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Cannoneer | Brad H. Cox | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Talk To Me Jimmy | Rudy R. Rodriguez | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Pavlovian | Doug F. O'Neill | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Englishman | Cherie DeVaux | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| So Happy | Mark Glatt | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Six Speed | Bhupat Seemar | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Brant | Bob Baffert | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Blacksmith | Bob Baffert | 50/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Satono Voyage | Hiroyasu Tanaka | 50/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Spartacus | TBD | 60/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Ewing | Mark E. Casse | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Courting | Todd A. Pletcher | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Liberty National | TBD | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Jackson Hole | TBD | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Best Green | Junji Tanaka | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Brotherly Love | Jamie Osborne | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| My World | TBD | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Desert Gate | Bob Baffert | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Strategic Risk | Mark E. Casse | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| D'code | TBD | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Saloom | TBD | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 66/1 | ▲ Shortening | Longshot |
| Universe | Kenneth G. McPeek | 100/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Talkin | Danny Gargan | 100/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Balboa | Brittany T. Russell | 150/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Grittiness | Todd Pletcher | 33/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Robusta | Doug F. O'Neill | 33/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Express Kid | Justin Evans | 33/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Great White | John Ennis | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Bravaro | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Soldier N Diplomat | Steve Asmussen | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Buetane | Bob Baffert | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Secured Freedom | Tim Yakteen | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Confessional | Brad Cox | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Carson Street | Brendan Walsh | 50/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Fulleffort | Brad Cox | 50/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Redland Rebels | Patrick Biancone | 50/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Baytown Dreamer | Paul McEntee | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Maximus Prime | Anthony Mitchell | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Bricklin | Rodolphe Brisset | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Ottinho | Chad Brown | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Rancho Santa Fe | Brad Cox | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Lockstocknpharoah | Tommy Drury Jr. | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Quality Mischief | Brad Cox | 66/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Civil Liberty | Doug F. O'Neill | 100/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Sleepingonfreedom | Kenny McPeek | 100/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Epic Desire | Todd Pletcher | 100/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Steel Imperium | Caio Caramori | 100/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Puerto Rico | Aidan O'Brien | 33/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Lino Padrino | Bhupat Seemar | 40/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Lucky Kid | Yukihiro Kato | 33/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Itterasshai | Makoto Saito | 50/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
Kentucky Derby odds begin forming in November after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but the market undergoes its most significant shifts in four windows. Understanding each window tells you when to bet on futures versus waiting:
The 2026 three-year-old crop is competitive without a dominant, standout favorite — which creates genuine value opportunities across the market. The following profiles cover each leading Kentucky Derby contender's trainer, jockey, prep race performance, and specific betting angle for the 2026 Derby.
| Horse | Paladin | Odds | 13/2 |
| Trainer | Chad Brown | Jockey | TBD (Blue Grass) |
| Last Prep | Risen Star Stakes (G2) — 1st by ½ length (Feb 14) — career record 3-for-3 | ||
| Analysis | Talented and unbeaten, but Chad Brown's 0-for-9 Derby record is the single biggest red flag in the market at 5-1. Pedigree (Gun Runner) suits 10 furlongs but sire failed in his Derby. Betting angle: Use in exotics but avoid as a primary Win bet. If he shortens below 4-1 after the Blue Grass, pass on win entirely. | ||
| Horse | Commandment | Odds | 9/1 |
| Trainer | Brad Cox | Jockey | Irad Ortiz Jr. |
| Last Prep | Fountain of Youth (G2) — 1st by a neck (Feb 28); Mucho Macho Man — 1st by 6¾ lengths (Jan) | ||
| Analysis | Brad Cox — who officially joined the Derby winner's circle with Mandaloun — has identified Commandment as his top-tier 2026 prospect. (Note: Eric Reed trained the 80-1 upsetter Rich Strike in 2022). Commandment proved he could handle two turns in the Fountain of Youth, showing immense grit to hold off Chief Wallabee. Currently sitting with 50 points on the leaderboard, he is safely in the field. This son of Into Mischief is built for classic distances and looks to punch his ticket as a top-three favorite in the Florida Derby (March 28). | ||
| Horse | Nearly | Odds | 8/1 |
| Trainer | Todd Pletcher | Jockey | John Velazquez |
| Last Prep | Holy Bull Stakes (G3) — 1st by 5¾ lengths (Jan 31); 98 Beyer | ||
| Analysis | While Bill Mott holds the cards with Chief Wallabee, Nearly is the designated powerhouse for the Todd Pletcher barn this spring. After a dominant performance in the Holy Bull, where he earned a field-high 98 Beyer, Nearly has been training sharply at Palm Beach Downs. As a son of Not This Time, he possesses the ideal blend of tactical speed and late-running stamina. Pletcher has opted for a fresh approach, skipping the Fountain of Youth to bring him into the Florida Derby (March 28) on a full tank. Expect him to sit just off the pace before making a decisive move around the far turn. | ||
| Horse | Chief Wallabee | Odds | 2-1 (ML) |
| Trainer | Bill Mott | Jockey | Junior Alvarado |
| Last Prep | Fountain of Youth (G2) — 2nd by a neck (Feb 28); 100 Beyer — second-highest of the 2026 season. | ||
| Analysis | Chief Wallabee validated his "TDN Rising Star" status with a massive 100 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth, falling just a neck short of Commandment (101 Beyer) despite a wide trip. While often grouped with front-runners, he showed in his last out that he can sit comfortably off a hot pace and loom dangerously on the far turn. Betting angle: As the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the Florida Derby (March 28), he holds a tactical advantage from Post 2. With Commandment switching jockeys to Flavien Prat, the established chemistry between Mott and Alvarado makes Chief Wallabee the most reliable "Win" candidate in a loaded field. | ||
| Horse | Renegade | Odds | 3-2 (ML) |
| Trainer | Todd Pletcher | Jockey | Irad Ortiz Jr. |
| Last Prep | Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) — 1st by 3¾ lengths (Feb 7); 93 Beyer | ||
| Analysis | With two Kentucky Derby trophies on his mantle, Todd Pletcher enters the Arkansas Derby (March 28) with a formidable favorite in Renegade. After skipping the Rebel Stakes, this Into Mischief colt has been "training lights out" and will start from Post 6 as the clear 3-2 morning-line choice. Betting angle: Renegade’s dominance in the Sam F. Davis suggested he has gears yet to be tested. While he’ll face a late challenge from the Baffert-trained Litmus Test, Renegade's tactical versatility makes him the horse to beat. A victory here would likely cement him as the overall Kentucky Derby favorite heading into April. | ||
| Horse | The Puma | Odds | 9-2 (ML) |
| Trainer | Gustavo Delgado Sr. | Jockey | Javier Castellano |
| Last Prep | Tampa Bay Derby (G3) — 1st by ¾ length (Mar 7); 89 Beyer Speed Figure. | ||
| Analysis | The parallels to 2023 Derby winner Mage are undeniable. Trained by Gustavo Delgado and ridden by Javier Castellano, The Puma entered the Tampa Bay Derby as a maiden and exited with 50 qualifying points. While his 89 Beyer is lower than the figures posted by Chief Wallabee or Commandment, his "last-to-first" closing kick suggests he has yet to find his ceiling. Betting angle: Now set for the Florida Derby (March 28), The Puma has been overlooked in early pools but has seen his morning-line odds sharpen to 9-2. Starting from Post 4, he sits in a prime spot to stalk a projected hot pace. If you’re playing a $0.10 Superfecta, he remains a mandatory inclusion for value. | ||
| Horse | Potente | Odds | 15/1 |
| Trainer | Bob Baffert | Jockey | Juan Hernandez |
| Last Prep | San Felipe Stakes (G2) — 1st by a head (Mar 8); 94 Beyer — $2.4M yearling purchase. | ||
| Analysis | Potente looks every bit the $2.4 million superstar his price tag suggests. Winning the San Felipe in just his second start mirrors the early brilliance of Baffert’s previous Triple Crown winners. While he currently sits with 0 official Derby points due to the Churchill Downs/Baffert restrictions, his raw talent is top-five in this class. Betting angle: He heads to the Santa Anita Derby (April 4) as the horse to beat. If he dominates there, expect a late-hour trainer transfer or legal maneuver to get him into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. At 15-1, you are betting on his talent and the likelihood that he'll actually be allowed to run. | ||
The Kentucky Derby offers the widest range of wagering options of any single race in America. The table below covers every wager type available at BUSR for the 2026 Derby, with real examples using the current field, minimum stakes, and payout potential — from a $1 Win bet to a $0.10 Superfecta and $0.50 Pick 6 targeting a carryover jackpot.
| Bet Type | Category | Difficulty | Example | Min. Stake | Payout Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | Straight | ⭐ Beginner | Paladin finishes 1st | $1 | Moderate |
| Place | Straight | ⭐ Beginner | Paladin finishes 1st or 2nd | $1 | Low–Mod |
| Show | Straight | ⭐ Beginner | Paladin finishes top 3 | $1 | Low |
| Exacta | Exotic | ⭐⭐ Inter. | Paladin 1st, Renegade 2nd — exact order | $1 | Moderate |
| Exacta Box | Exotic | ⭐⭐ Inter. | Paladin + Renegade — either order | $2 | Moderate |
| Trifecta | Exotic | ⭐⭐⭐ Advanced | Exact 1–2–3: Paladin/Renegade/Nearly | $1 | High |
| Trifecta Box | Exotic | ⭐⭐ Inter. | Any 3 horses, any order for 1–2–3 | $6 | High |
| Superfecta | Exotic | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Expert | Exact 1–2–3–4 finish | $0.10 | Very High |
| Pick 3 / 4 | Multi | ⭐⭐⭐ Advanced | Win 3–4 consecutive races incl. Derby | $0.50 | Very High |
| Pick 5 / 6 | Multi | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Expert | Win 5–6 consecutive races; Pick 6 carryover | $0.50 | Massive |
| Win (Fixed) | Fixed | ⭐ Beginner | Paladin at BUSR 13/2 — price locked at bet | $1 | Guaranteed |
Win pays if your horse finishes first. Place pays if your horse finishes first or second. Show pays for a top-three finish. The trade-off is simple — safety comes at the cost of payout. Show bets on short-priced horses at a $5M purse Derby rarely offer a meaningful return after the tote take-out. The best straight-bet approach for the 2026 Derby is targeting Win bets in the 8/1 to 20/1 range, where single-horse risk/reward is most compelling.
Exotic bets require picking multiple horses in the same race. The Exacta predicts the first two finishers in exact order; the Trifecta adds a third; the Superfecta adds a fourth. 'Boxing', a combination, covers all possible orderings at a multiplied cost — a $1 three-horse Exacta box costs $6. The 20-horse Kentucky Derby field regularly produces double-digit placers that generate massive payouts. In 2025, the $1 Trifecta paid $231.12, and the $1 Superfecta paid $1,682.27.
| Best Exotic Play: Use the $0.10 Superfecta box to cover 5 horses at a low cost. At $0.10 minimum, a five-horse Superfecta box costs $12 and covers all 120 possible 1-2-3-4 combinations among your five horses. It is the highest-upside, most cost-efficient exotic structure for a 20-horse Derby field. |
Understanding potential returns before you bet is essential to sizing your positions correctly. The table below shows illustrative payouts for common 2026 Derby wager types. Pari-mutuel returns are estimates — actual payouts fluctuate with pool action. BUSR fixed-odds returns are guaranteed at the time of bet placement.
| Wager | Stake | Approx. Odds | Estimated Profit | Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win: Paladin (13/2) | $20 | 13/2 | $100 | $120 |
| Win: Renegade (10-1) | $20 | 12/1 | $200 | $220 |
| Win: The Puma (25-1) | $20 | 20/1 | $500 | $520 |
| Exacta Box: Paladin/Renegade | $2 | ~15-1 | $28 | $30 |
| $1 Trifecta Box (3 horses) | $6 | ~120-1 | $714 | $720 |
| $0.10 Superfecta Box (5 horses) | $12 | ~500-1 | $5,988 | $6,000 |
| $0.50 Pick 5 (6 legs) | $0.50 | ~600-1 | $299.50 | $300 |
| Win (Fixed, BUSR) Paladin 13/2 | $50 | Fixed | $250 | $300 |
| Sizing Tip: Structure your Derby budget across three layers: a moderate Win bet on your top selection (40% of budget), a broader Exacta/Trifecta ticket (40%), and a Superfecta box or multi-race ticket (20%). This approach captures single-horse value while preserving upside in the exotics. |
| Strategy | How It Works | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Fade the Favorite | Derby favorites win ~30% of the time. Paladin's trainer Chad Brown is 0-for-9 in the Derby — a significant historical underlay at 13/2. Build exotics using mid-priced horses as your primary selections. | Medium |
| Speed Figure Focus | Chief Wallabee's 100 Beyer at the Fountain of Youth is the top figure of the prep season. Horses that post a career-best in their final prep before the Derby win at a higher rate than their odds suggest. | Low |
| Trainer Angle | Prioritize trainers with proven Derby records: Baffert (7 wins), Pletcher (2 wins), Cox (1 win), Mott (1 win). Mott has both Nearly and Chief Wallabee — a rare two-horse attack from one of racing's best conditioners. | Low–Med |
| Connections Repeat | The Puma runs for the same connections (Delgado/Restrepo/Castellano) who won the 2023 Derby with Mage, also a lightly-raced 15-1 shot. Pattern recognition is a legitimate handicapping edge. | Medium |
| Exotic Wheeling | Select a strong opinion horse 'on top' across Exacta/Trifecta tickets, then spread wider in lower positions. Example: Renegade on top of 5 horses in an Exacta part-wheel for $5 total exposure. | Medium |
| $0.10 Superfecta Box | Cover 4–5 horses in a $0.10 Superfecta box for $12–$24 total cost. If three longshots crack the top four — as they often do in a 20-horse Derby field — the return can be four to five figures. | Med–High |
| Fixed Odds Lock-In | Bet BUSR fixed odds on contenders now, before final preps move the market. Potente was 44-1 before the San Felipe and is now 15-1. Renegade was 25-1 before the Sam F. Davis and is now 10-1. | Low |
| Post Position Filter | Posts 5–10 produce the most Derby winners historically. Extreme outside posts (17–20) face a disadvantage in a 20-horse field due to the short run to the first turn. Wait for the draw results before finalizing tickets. | Low |
The Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying system awards points to the top five finishers in designated prep races from September through mid-April. The 20 horses with the most points — plus international qualifiers — earn a starting spot. Knowing which preps carry the most points and which have the strongest predictive track record for the Derby is essential to identifying value in the futures market.
| Race | Track | Date | Points | Key Contenders / Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain of Youth (G2) | Gulfstream Park | Feb 28 | 50 pts | Commandment (1st, 101 Beyer); Chief Wallabee (2nd) |
| Louisiana Derby (G2) | Fair Grounds | Mar 21 | 100 pts | Emerging Market (1st, 97 Beyer); Pavlovian (2nd) |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) | Turfway Park | Mar 21 | 100 pts | Fulleffort (1st, 95 Beyer); Stark Contrast (2nd) |
| Florida Derby (G1) | Gulfstream Park | Mar 28 | 100 pts | Chief Wallabee, Nearly, The Puma targets |
| Arkansas Derby (G1) | Oaklawn Park | Mar 28 | 100 pts | Renegade, Class President targets |
| Santa Anita Derby (G1) | Santa Anita | Apr 4 | 100 pts | Potente, Litmus Test targets |
| Blue Grass Stakes (G1) | Keeneland | Apr 4 | 100 pts | Paladin — final prep target |
Run at 1 1/16 miles, the Fountain of Youth awards 50 points (Championship Series structure) to the winner and is Florida's most important early Kentucky Derby prep race. In 2026, Commandment surged to the top of the leaderboard with a neck-victory, posting a 101 Beyer — the fastest speed figure of any 2026 prep to date. Chief Wallabee finished a game second with a 100 Beyer, setting the stage for a high-stakes rematch in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28.
| → Read more: Fountain of Youth Stakes 2026 — Results, Recap, and Kentucky Derby Implications |
The Gotham, contested at one mile at Aqueduct on March 1, is New York's primary early Derby qualifying race. Iron Honor (Chad Brown) won the 2026 running, moving from 122-1 to 25-1 in the futures market overnight. Brown trains both Iron Honor and Paladin, giving his barn two legitimate Derby paths from different prep routes. The Gotham winner has historically faced a step up in competition at the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass.
| → Read more: Gotham Stakes 2026 — Results and Kentucky Derby Qualifying Impact |
The most prestigious West Coast Derby prep, awarding 100 points to the winner at 1 1/8 miles. Bob Baffert typically uses this race to finalize his Churchill Downs squad. Potente is the 2026 target — a win here at 15-1 current odds would almost certainly install him as a top-5 market choice and move him to 8-1 or shorter. Baffert horses from the Santa Anita Derby have produced multiple Kentucky Derby winners.
| → Read more: Santa Anita Derby 2026 — Odds, Contenders and Churchill Downs Roadmap |
Run at 1 1/8 miles at Keeneland — a track whose surface characteristics most closely mirror Churchill Downs — the Blue Grass is considered the most 'local' and telling of all major Derby preps. Paladin is targeting the Blue Grass as his final start before Churchill Downs. A dominant win would likely make him odds-on or close to it; a loss would trigger a major market reshuffling. The single most important 2026 Derby betting event is still on the calendar.
| → Read more: Blue Grass Stakes 2026 — Paladin, Odds and Kentucky Derby Implications |
BUSR is built for serious Derby bettors. From locking in fixed-odds prices weeks before post time to placing a $0.10 Superfecta on race day, everything you need is in one place — with same-day payouts and no download required.
| Fixed Odds | Lock in your price before post time. The odds you bet are the odds you get paid — no tote fluctuation, no surprises. |
|---|---|
| Full Exotics | Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double, Pick 3/4/5/6 — every wager type available in one platform. |
| Derby Futures | Bet the Derby winner now at today’s prices. Lock in value before the final preps compress the market. |
| Fast Payouts | 24-hour Bitcoin payouts. Crypto-friendly deposits. Winnings in your account the same day you collect. |
| Racebook Rebate | Industry-leading 10% Racebook rebate. More tracks than anyone. Every race, every day. |
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With the strategy framework above in place, here is where US Racing’s handicappers are putting their money. The following picks are current as of March 17, 2026 — seven weeks out, with four critical 100-point preps still to run. These are actionable bets, not just analysis.
| USRacing Expert Analysis — 2026 Kentucky Derby |
|---|
| [SOLID BET] Renegade (10-1) — Todd Pletcher's best Derby horse in years. Won the Sam F. Davis by 3¾ lengths. Two Derby wins for Pletcher (Super Saver, Always Dreaming). Arkansas Derby on March 28 is the final prep — a win likely compresses him to 6-1 or shorter. Current 10-1 is the last good price. |
| [VALUE PLAY] Canaletto (15-1) — Brother to Arkansas Derby winner Sandman. Posted a 109 speed figure in the Tampa Bay Derby despite finishing third. Todd Pletcher trains both Renegade and Canaletto — dual threats. 15-1 underestimates his ceiling at 10 furlongs. The Florida Derby is next. |
| [LONGSHOT] The Puma (25-1) — Same connections as 2023 Derby winner Mage — Delgado/Restrepo/Castellano. Won the Tampa Bay Derby in only his third career start. 89 Beyer needs to improve, but these connections have proven they can peak a horse on Derby Day. Excellent $0.10 Superfecta inclusion. |
| [SPECULATIVE] Potente (15-1) — Bob Baffert's top prospect. Won the San Felipe Stakes in only his second career start — exceptional. At 15-1, there is still upside if he dominates the Santa Anita Derby (G1, April 4). Baffert is 7-for-all-time in the Derby. Don't fade without reason. |
| [UNDERLAY] Paladin (5-1) — Talented and unbeaten, but Chad Brown's 0-for-9 Derby record is statistically significant at this price. Use in exotics but avoid as a straight Win bet. If Blue Grass is dominant and he shortens to 3-1, pass entirely. |
| Time (ET) | What to Do |
|---|---|
| 9:00 AM ET | Early pools open. Morning line released. Check Churchill Downs' official weather and track condition report — a sloppy or muddy track dramatically changes betting strategy. |
| 9 AM–12 PM | Supporting undercard races begin. Review final jockey assignments, equipment changes, and late scratch reports posted at Churchill Downs. |
| 12–5 PM | Multi-race sequence legs begin. Pick 6, Pick 5, and Pick 4 pools open. Place your multi-race tickets before the first leg of your sequence — you cannot add after racing starts. |
| 5–6:45 PM | Derby odds firm. Last window to buy fixed-odds on BUSR or adjust Win/Exacta exposure. Final post-position-draw data factored into late market movement. |
| 6:45 PM | Horses enter the paddock. Watch for equipment changes (blinkers, tongue ties) — late additions are a signal from trainers about a horse's readiness. |
| 6:57 PM | Post time. Gates open. Churchill Downs pari-mutuel pools close. BUSR fixed-odds positions are locked from the moment you bet. |
| 7:00 PM | Race runs in approximately 2 minutes. Watch live free on BUSR — stream unlocks under your bet slip once your Derby wager is placed. Results are official within minutes, and payouts are credited instantly. |
The Churchill Downs surface condition — fast, good, muddy, sloppy, or heavy — is one of the most important late-breaking variables in Derby wagering. Check the Louisville weather forecast on Friday, May 1, and adjust your strategy accordingly:
| Weather Watch: If significant rain is forecast for Louisville on Friday–Saturday, reconsider any Win bets on pure speed types and restructure your exotic tickets to include closers and mudders at high prices. A sloppy Churchill Downs surface is the single biggest wild card in Derby betting. |
Historical winners are one of the most valuable handicapping tools available. Trainer patterns, jockey trends, and winning odds ranges repeat far more often than most bettors realize. The table below covers the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners. Use it to validate your 2026 selections against proven winning profiles.
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sovereignty | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott | 2:02.31 |
| 2024 | Mistik Dan | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. | Kenneth G. McPeek | 2:03.34 |
| 2023 | Mage | Javier Castellano | Gustavo Delgado | 2:01.57 |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | Sonny Leon | Eric R. Reed | 2:02.61 |
| 2021 | Medina Spirit | John Velazquez | Bob Baffert | 2:01.01 |
| 2020 | Authentic | John Velazquez | Bob Baffert | 2:00.61 |
| 2019 | Country House | Flavien Prat | W. Mott | 2:03:93 |
| 2018 | Justify | Mike E. Smith | Bob Baffert | 2:04.20 |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 2:03.59 |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Mario Guiterrez | Doug O'Neill | 2:01.31 |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 2:03.02 |
| 2014 | California Chrome | Victor Espinoza | Art Sherman | 2:03.66 |
| 2013 | Orb | Joel Rosario | Shug McGaughey | 2:02 4/5 |
| 2012 | I'll Have Another | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O'Neill | 2:01.83 |
| 2011 | Animal Kingdom | John R. Velazquez | H. Graham Motion | 2:02.04 |
| 2010 | Super Saver | Calvin Borel | Todd Pletcher | 2:04.45 |
| 2009 | Mine That Bird | Calvin Borel | Bennie Woolley Jr. | 2:02.66 |
| 2008 | Big Brown | Kent Desormeaux | Rick Dutrow | 2:01.82 |
| 2007 | Street Sense | Calvin Borel | Carl Nafzger | 2:02.17 |
| 2006 | Barbaro | Edgar Prado | Michael Matz | 2:01.36 |
| 2005 | Giacomo | Mike Smith | John Shirreffs | 2:02.75 |
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | Stewart Elliott | John Servis | 2:04.06 |
| 2003 | Funny Cide | Jos Santos | Barclay Tagg | 2:01.19 |
| 2002 | War Emblem | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 2:01.13 |
| 2001 | Monarchos | Jorge Chavez | John Ward Jr. | 1:59.97 |
| 2000 | Fusaichi Pegasus | Kent Desormeaux | Neil Drysdale | 2:01 |
| 1999 | Charismatic | Chris Antley | D. Wayne Lukas | 2:03 1/5 |
| 1998 | Real Quiet | Kent Desormeaux | Bob Baffert | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1997 | Silver Charm | Gary Stevens | Bob Baffert | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1996 | Grindstone | Jerry Bailey | D. Wayne Lukas | 2:01 |
| 1995 | Thunder Gulch | Gary Stevens | D. Wayne Lukas | 2:01 1/5 |
| 1994 | Go for Gin | Chris McCarron | Nick Zito | 2:03 3/5 |
| 1993 | Sea Hero | Jerry Bailey | Mack Miller | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1992 | Lil E. Tee | Pat Day | Lynn Whiting | 2:03 |
| 1991 | Strike the Gold | Chris Antley | Nick Zito | 2:03 |
| 1990 | Unbridled | Craig Perret | Carl Nafzger | 2:02 |
| 1989 | Sunday Silence | Pat Valenzuela | Charlie Whittingham | 2:05 |
| 1988 | Winning Colors | Gary Stevens | D. Wayne Lukas | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1987 | Alysheba | Chris McCarron | Jack Van Berg | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1986 | Ferdinand | Bill Shoemaker | Charlie Whittingham | 2:02 4/5 |
| 1985 | Spend a Buck | Angel Cordero, Jr. | Cam Gambolati | 2:00 1/5 |
| 1984 | Swale | Laffit Pincay, Jr. | Woody Stephens | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1983 | Sunnys Halo | Eddie Delahoussaye | David Cross Jr. | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1982 | Gato Del Sol | Eddie Delahoussaye | Eddie Gregson | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1981 | Pleasant Colony | Jorge Velasquez | John Campo | 2:02 |
| 1980 | Genuine Risk | Jacinto Vasquez | LeRoy Jolley | 2:02 |
| 1979 | Spectacular Bid | Ron Franklin | Bud Delp | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1978 | Affirmed | Steve Cauthen | Laz Barrera | 2:01 1/5 |
| 1977 | Seattle Slew | Jean Cruguet | Billy Turner | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1976 | Bold Forbes | Angel Cordero, Jr. | Laz Barrera | 2:01 3/5 |
| 1975 | Foolish Pleasure | Jacinto Vasquez | LeRoy Jolley | 2:02 |
| 1974 | Cannonade | Angel Cordero, Jr. | Woody Stephens | 2:04 |
| 1973 | Secretariat | Ron Turcotte | Lucien Laurin | 1:59 2/5 |
| 1972 | Riva Ridge | Ron Turcotte | Lucien Laurin | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1971 | Canonero II | Gustavo Avila | Juan Arias | 2:03 1/5 |
| 1970 | Dust Commander | Mike Manganello | Don Combs | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1969 | Majestic Prince | Bill Hartack | Johnny Longden | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1968 | Forward Pass | Ismael Valenzuela | Henry Forrest | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1967 | Proud Clarion | Bobby Ussery | Loyd Gentry | 2:00 3/5 |
| 1966 | Kauai King | Don Brumfield | Henry Forrest | 2:02 |
| 1965 | Lucky Debonair | Bill Shoemaker | Frank Catrone | 2:01 1/5 |
| 1964 | Northern Dancer | Bill Hartack | Horatio Luro | 2:00 |
| 1963 | Chateaugay | Braulio Baeza | James Conway | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1962 | Decidedly | Bill Hartack | Horatio Luro | 2:00 2/5 |
| 1961 | Carry Back | John Sellers | Jack Price | 2:04 |
| 1960 | Venetian Way | Bill Hartack | Victor Sovinski | 2:02 2/5 |
| 1959 | Tomy Lee | Bill Shoemaker | Frank Childs | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1958 | Tim Tam | Ismael Valenzuela | Horace A. "Jimmy" Jones | 2:05 |
| 1957 | Iron Liege | Bill Hartack | Horace A. "Jimmy" Jones | 2:02 1/5 |
| 1956 | Needles | David Erb | Hugh Fontaine | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1955 | Swaps | Bill Shoemaker | Mesh Tenney | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1954 | Determine | Raymond York | Willie Molter | 2:03 |
| 1953 | Dark Star | Hank Moreno | Eddie Hayward | 2:02 |
| 1952 | Hill Gail | Eddie Arcaro | Ben A. Jones | 2:01 3/5 |
| 1951 | Count Turf | Conn McCreary | Sol Rutchick | 2:02 3/5 |
| 1950 | Middleground | William Boland | Max Hirsch | 2:01 3/5 |
| 1949 | Ponder | Steve Brooks | Ben A. Jones | 2:04 1/5 |
| 1948 | Citation | Eddie Arcaro | Ben A. Jones | 2:05 2/5 |
| 1947 | Jet Pilot | Eric Guerin | Tom Smith | 2:06 4/5 |
| 1946 | Assault | Warren Mehrtens | Max Hirsch | 2:06 3/5 |
| 1945 | Hoop Jr | Eddie Arcaro | Ivan Parke | 2:07 |
| 1944 | Pensive | Conn McCreary | Ben A. Jones | 2:04 1/5 |
| 1943 | Count Fleet | Johnny Longden | Don Cameron | 2:04 |
| 1942 | Shut Out | Wayne Wright | John M. Gaver | 2:04 2/5 |
| 1941 | Whirlaway | Eddie Arcaro | Ben A. Jones | 2:01 2/5 |
| 1940 | Gallahadion | Carroll Bierman | Roy Waldron | 2:05 |
| 1939 | Johnstown | James Stout | Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1938 | Lawrin | Eddie Arcaro | Ben A. Jones | 2:04 4/5 |
| 1937 | War Admiral | Charley Kurtsinger | George Conway | 2:03 1/5 |
| 1936 | Bold Venture | Ira Hanford | Max Hirsch | 2:03 3/5 |
| 1935 | Omaha | Willie Saunders | Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons | 2:05 |
| 1934 | Cavalcade | Mack Garner | Bob Smith | 2:04 |
| 1933 | Brokers Tip | Don Meade | Henry J. "Dick" Thompson | 2:06 4/5 |
| 1932 | Burgoo King | Eugene James | Henry J. "Dick" Thompson | 2:05 1/5 |
| 1931 | Twenty Grand | Charley Kurtsinger | James Rowe, Jr. | 2:01 4/5 |
| 1930 | Gallant Fox | Earl Sande | Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons | 2:07 3/5 |
| 1929 | Clyde Van Dusen | Linus McAtee | Clyde Van Dusen | 2:10 4/5 |
| 1928 | Reigh Count | Chick Lang | Bert Micchell | 2:10 2/5 |
| 1927 | Whiskery | Linus McAtee | Fred Hopkins | 2:06 |
| 1926 | Bubbling Over | Albert Johnson | Henry J. "Dick" Thompson | 2:03 4/5 |
| 1925 | Flying Ebony | Earl Sande | William Duke | 2:07 3/5 |
| 1924 | Black Gold | John D. Mooney | Hanley Webb | 2:05 1/5 |
| 1923 | Zev | Earl Sande | David J. Leary | 2:05 2/5 |
| 1922 | Morvich | Albert Johnson | Fred Burlew | 2:04 3/5 |
| 1921 | Behave Yourself | Charles Thompson | Henry J. "Dick" Thompson | 2:04 1/5 |
| 1920 | Paul Jones | Ted Rice | Billy Garth | 2:09 |
| 1919 | Sir Barton | Johnny Loftus | H. Guy Bedwell | 2:09 4/5 |
| 1918 | Exterminator | William Knapp | Henry McDaniel | 2:10 4/5 |
| 1917 | Omar Khayyam | Charles Borel | C.T. Patterson | 2:04 3/5 |
| 1916 | George Smith | Johnny Loftus | Hollie Hughes | 2:04 |
| 1915 | Regret | Joe Notter | James Rowe, Sr. | 2:05 2/5 |
| 1914 | Old Rosebud | John McCabe | F. D. Weir | 2:03 2/5 |
| 1913 | Donerail | Roscoe Goose | Thomas Hayes | 2:04 4/5 |
| 1912 | Worth | Carol Shilling | Frank Taylor | 2:09 2/5 |
| 1911 | Meridian | George Archibald | Albert Ewing | 2:05 |
| 1910 | Donau | Fred Herbert | George Ham | 2:06 2/5 |
| 1909 | Wintergreen | Vincent Powers | Charles Mack | 2:08 1/5 |
| 1908 | Stone Street | Arthur Pickens | J. W. Hall | 2:15 1/5 |
| 1907 | Pink Star | Andy Minder | W. H. Fizer | 2:12 3/5 |
| 1906 | Sir Huon | Roscoe Troxler | Pete Coyne | 2:08 4/5 |
| 1905 | Agile | Jack Martin | Robert Tucker | 2:10 3/4 |
| 1904 | Elwood | Shorty Prior | C. E. Durnell | 2:08 1/2 |
| 1903 | Judge Himes | Hal Booker | J. P. Mayberry | 2:09 |
| 1902 | Alan-a-Dale | Jimmy Winkfield | T. C. McDowell | 2:08 3/4 |
| 1901 | His Eminence | Jimmy Winkfield | F. P. Van Meter | 2:07 3/4 |
| 1900 | Lieut. Gibson | Jimmy Boland | Charles Hughes | 2:06 1/4 |
| 1899 | Manuel | Fred Taral | Robert J. Walden | 2:12 |
| 1898 | Plaudit | Willie Simms | John E. Madden | 2:09 |
| 1897 | Typhoon II | Buttons Garner | J. C. Cahn | 2:12 1/2 |
| 1896 | Ben Brush | Willie Simms | Hardy Campbell | 2:07 3/4 |
| 1895 | Halma | Soup Perkins | Byron McClelland | 2:37 1/2 |
| 1894 | Chant | Frank Goodale | Eugene Leigh | 2:41 |
| 1893 | Lookout | E. Kunze | William McDaniel | 2:39 1/4 |
| 1892 | Azra | Lonnie Clayton | John Morris | 2:41 1/2 |
| 1891 | Kingman | Isaac Murphy | Dud Allen | 2:52 1/4 |
| 1890 | Riley | Isaac Murphy | Edward Corrigan | 2:45 |
| 1889 | Spokane | Thomas Kiley | John Rodegap | 2:34 1/2 |
| 1888 | Macbeth II | George Covington | John Campbell | 2:38 |
| 1887 | Montrose | Isaac Lewis | John McGinty | 2:39 1/4 |
| 1886 | Ben Ali | Paul Duffy | Jim Murphy | 2:36 1/2 |
| 1885 | Joe Cotton | Babe Henderson | Alex Perry | 2:37 1/4 |
| 1884 | Buchanan | Isaac Murphy | William Bird | 2:40 1/4 |
| 1883 | Leonatus | Billy Donohue | John McGinty | 2:43 |
| 1882 | Apollo | Babe Hurd | Green Morris | 2:40 |
| 1881 | Hindoo | Jim McLaughlin | James Rowe, Sr. | 2:40 |
| 1880 | Fonso | George Lewis | Tice Hutsell | 2:37 1/2 |
| 1879 | Lord Murphy | Charlie Shauer | George Rice | 2:37 |
| 1878 | Day Star | J. Carter | Lee Paul | 2:37 1/4 |
| 1877 | Baden Baden | Billy Walker | Ed Brown (aka "Dick") | 2:38 |
| 1875 | Aristides | Oliver Lewis | Ansel Williamson | 2:37 3/4 |
Q: When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby, and what time does it start?
A: The 152nd Kentucky Derby runs on Saturday, May 2, 2026, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Post time is approximately 6:57 PM ET. BUSR members who place a Kentucky Derby wager get free live access to the race stream directly under their bet slip. The total purse is $5 million, with $3.1 million awarded to the winner.
Q: Who is the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite?
A: As of March 18, 2026, Paladin (trained by Chad Brown) is the 13/2 favorite at BUSR. Nearly and Commandment (both 9/1) and Chief Wallabee (11/1) are the next closest challengers. The market is wide open with four critical 100-point qualifying races still to run in late March and early April.
Q: How do I bet on the Kentucky Derby online?
A: Create an account at BUSR, fund it, navigate to the Churchill Downs May 2 race card, select Race 12 (the Kentucky Derby), choose your bet type (Win, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, etc.), enter your stake, and confirm. BUSR offers both pari-mutuel tote wagering and fixed-odds win betting — unique in the U.S. market. Minimum wagers start at $1 for straight bets and $0.10 for Superfecta combinations.
Q: What does fixed-odds betting mean for the Kentucky Derby?
A: Fixed-odds betting — available at BUSR — means your payout is guaranteed at the price displayed when you place your bet, regardless of how the tote market moves afterward. If you bet Paladin at 5-1 today and he shortens to 3-1 by race day, you still collect at 5-1. This is the key advantage of betting futures early on a contender before their final prep race compresses their price.
Q: What is the best bet for the Kentucky Derby?
A: For most bettors, the best risk/reward combination is a modest Win bet on a 10-1 to 25-1 horse you believe in, backed by a $1 Trifecta part-wheel and a $0.10 Superfecta box. This structure gives you meaningful upside from a longshot win while also capturing the most likely scenario in a wide-open field — that a mix of favorites and mid-priced horses fill the top three or four positions.
Q: What is the minimum bet for the Kentucky Derby?
A: The minimum Win/Place/Show bet at BUSR Racebook is $1. The Exacta minimum is $1. The Superfecta minimum is $0.10, making it possible to cover large combinations cheaply. Multi-race minimums (Pick 3, 4, 5, 6) range from $0.50 to $2 per combination.
Q: How do Kentucky Derby odds work?
A: Traditional Derby wagering is pari-mutuel: all bets go into a communal pool, the track takes a cut (typically 17-20%), and the remainder is divided among winning tickets. Odds reflect how much of the pool is bet on each horse and fluctuate continuously until post time. BUSR's fixed-odds format is a sportsbook-style market where the house sets a price and guarantees that price at the time you bet.
Q: What prep races most affect Kentucky Derby odds?
A: The four most influential races are the 100-point qualifiers in late March and early April: the Florida Derby (Gulfstream, March 28), Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn, March 28), Santa Anita Derby (April 4), and Blue Grass Stakes (Keeneland, April 4). Winners of these races produce a disproportionate share of Derby podium finishes and typically see their odds compress by 30-50% overnight after a dominant performance.
Q: What is the Kentucky Derby Future Wager?
A: The Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) is an official pari-mutuel product from Churchill Downs, run across six pools from November through April. Bettors can bet individual horses or the 'All Other 3-Year-Olds' catchall entry, which captures horses not yet individually listed. Pool 5 opened on March 13, 2026. BUSR offers a fixed-odds alternative with guaranteed returns.
Q: Is online Kentucky Derby betting legal in the USA?
A: BUSR is available online and on mobile. Visit BUSR to confirm availability in your area before registering.
Q: What happened in recent Kentucky Derby exacta and superfecta payouts?
A: Recent Derby exotic payouts illustrate the race's massive payout potential. In 2025, the $1 Trifecta (Sovereignty/Journalism/Baeza) paid $231.12 and the $1 Superfecta paid $1,682.27 — and the $1 Super High-Five paid $38,405.96. These are not anomalies — the Derby's 20-horse field regularly produces longshot placers that generate four and five-figure exotic returns.
From a $1 Win bet to a fixed-odds futures wager locked in today — BUSR has every Kentucky Derby wager available. Odds are moving now. Don't wait for the Blue Grass to act.
When is the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, May 2nd, 2026
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby?
At BUSR: Odds are Live!
What channel is the Kentucky Derby on?
Watch the Kentucky Derby live on TV with NBC at 5:00 pm EST
Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby, Kentucky Oaks, the "twin spires design," "Road to the Roses" and Churchill Downs Incorporated-related trademarks are registered trademarks of Churchill Downs Incorporated or its affiliates (collectively CDI). CDI does not sponsor or endorse, and is not associated or affiliated with US Racing or its products, services or promotions. US Racing provides free information, odds, facts and commentary about the Kentucky Derby and horse racing and betting, in general. Third party marks may be referenced in a transformative, editorial, informational, nominative, critical, analytical or comparative context. US Racing may reference marks belonging to third parties pursuant to our right to engage in fair use, fair comment, statutory fair use or trade mark fair use doctrine. As such, US Racing does not contribute to any dilution of any trade or service marks. US Racing provides this information in an effort to educate and grow the sport of thoroughbred racing in North America with an emphasis on attracting new fans of the sport.
