The horse racing calendar flips to November, which always signifies a dramatic elevation in the quality and stakes of the Kentucky Derby prep races, fundamentally altering the landscape for the Run for the Roses. This crucial period injects serious points into the Kentucky Derby leaderboard and causes a seismic shift in the Kentucky Derby futures markets.
Thoroughbred racing fans and savvy bettors must now recalibrate their strategies based on these crucial results. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in particular, delivered a massive point haul, instantly crowning a new favorite and creating opportunities for those ready to bet on Kentucky Derby early.
We dive deep into the performances that defined the post-November picture, analyzing the new favorites, the rising dark horses, and the value currently available in the Kentucky Derby Odds for the 2026 race.
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The defining moment of the campaign arrived under the bright lights of the Breeders' Cup, where Ted Noffey delivered a powerful, sustained performance in the Juvenile (G1). The victory cemented his status as the individual favorite. Trainer Todd Pletcher strategically managed the colt’s early career, peaking perfectly for this contest. By demonstrating exceptional closing speed and an ability to navigate the 1 1/16 miles, Ted Noffey silenced any doubts about his two-turn capability.
He earned a significant haul of qualifying points, propelling him to the summit of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a total of 40 points. The impressive victory tightened his Kentucky Derby Odds from speculative morning line figures to a commanding 7-1 in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) Pool 2. Jockey John R. Velazquez was aboard for the win. The runner-up, Mr. A. P., secured valuable points, moving discreetly into a qualifying position with 15 total points.
While the Breeders’ Cup grabbed global attention, the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs quietly confirmed a formidable local contender in Further Ado. This traditional 10-point race serves as a crucial barometer for horses transitioning to the Derby distance and handling the specific conditions of the Louisville track.
Further Ado, expertly ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. and trained by Brad Cox, showed immense determination in the stretch, powering past his rivals to claim the victory and the 10 points on offer (scale 10-5-3-2-1). This win places him securely within the top tier of the Kentucky Derby contenders leaderboard. The performance was significant because it confirmed his ability to handle two turns on the demanding dirt surface under the Twin Spires, a non-negotiable prerequisite for success on the first Saturday in May. In the KDFW Pool 2, Further Ado was listed at very attractive odds of 13-1.
| Position | Horse | Points | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paladin | 60 | Chad C. Brown |
| 2 | Chip Honcho | 39 | Steven M. Asmussen |
| 3 | Golden Tempo | 35 | Cherie DeVaux |
| 4 | Silent Tactic | 25 | Mark Casse |
| 5 | Renegade | 25 | Todd Pletcher |
| 6 | Intrepido | 23 | Jeff Mullins |
| 7 | Plutarch | 23 | Bob Baffert |
| 8 | Universe | 23 | Kenneth G. McPeek |
| 9 | Nearly | 20 | Todd Pletcher |
| 10 | Talk to Me Jimmy | 20 | Rudy Rodriguez |
| 11 | Express Kid | 20 | Justin R. Evans |
| 12 | Pavlovian | 20 | Doug F. O'Neill |
| 13 | Litmus Test | 19 | Bob Baffert |
| 14 | Soldier N Diploat | 13 | Steve Asmussen |
| 15 | Grittiness | 11 | Todd Pletcher |
| 16 | Carson Street | 11 | Brendan P. Walsh |
| 17 | Napoleon Solo | 10 | Chad Summers |
| 18 | Strategic Risk | 10 | Mark Casse |
| 19 | My World | 10 | Brad Cox |
| 20 | Further Ado | 10 | Brad H. Cox |
Last Updated on 02/16/2026
The flurry of November activity established a clear line of demarcation on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. The two key domestic races awarded a combined total of at least 50 points to the winners and runners-up, resulting in a dramatic shakeup at the top. Ted Noffey holds the enviable pole position with 40 points, a cushion that allows his Hall of Fame connections to map out an optimal training schedule, minimizing risk in the early spring Kentucky Derby prep races. Further Ado sits comfortably with 10 points, needing only one strong performance in a 50-point race early next year to secure his spot.
Conversely, previously relevant horses who failed to hit the board now face immense pressure to contend in the higher-stakes January and February races just to get into the qualifying picture. Savvy horseplayers understand the value of this early point acquisition: it gives the top Kentucky Derby contenders a massive advantage in freshness come May 2026.
The shift in the Kentucky Derby Odds demands immediate attention from serious horseplayers. Ted Noffey rightfully earned his spot as the solid favorite at 7-1, but the real value often lies slightly beneath the top line.
Further Ado, officially available at 13-1 in KDFW Pool 2, presents an excellent proposition. His demonstrated ability over the Churchill Downs track is an intangible asset that many other contenders lack at this stage. Furthermore, Mr. A. P., who secured points as the Juvenile runner-up and holds 15 total points, maintains appealing Kentucky Derby futures at 29-1.
When you bet on Kentucky Derby early, you capitalize on these strategic moves. Further Ado’s proven versatility and two-turn effort offer a strong chance of tackling the 1 1/4-mile distance compared to horses who have yet to prove themselves in stakes company.
The November prep races provided all the evidence we needed: the Kentucky Derby contenders list is shorter, the Kentucky Derby Odds are set for the winter, and the time to bet on Kentucky Derby futures is now.
Every winner from this critical month now targets the high-value races of the new year, and their prices will shrink dramatically with every subsequent victory. Suppose you wait until the end of January. In that case, you miss out on the incredible 13-1 value currently attached to proven runners like Further Ado or the 29-1 longshot prices on established points earners like Mr. A. P. Do not let this vital window of opportunity close.
Stay tuned to US Racing for access to our full suite of Kentucky Derby futures analysis and lock in your winning tickets before the next major point race makes prices disappear.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
