The first Saturday in May approaches rapidly, and the landscape of the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting markets just shifted under the weight of a single stallion’s dominance. When the gates opened for the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park, handicappers expected a wide-open scramble. Instead, they witnessed a tactical masterclass that validated the meteoric rise of the sire Not This Time. The winner, Nearly, did more than just collect 20 points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard; he posted the fastest speed figures of the 2026 season. Meanwhile, stablemates and peers like Solitude Dude continue to build the case that this bloodline owns the current three-year-old cycle. If you intend to bet on Kentucky Derby online, you must understand why this specific sire power is currently rewriting the script for the 152nd Run for the Roses.
Nearly entered the Holy Bull as a horse with potential, but he left as the undisputed leader of the Florida path. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez, the dark bay colt stalked a blistering pace of :22.82 and :45.96 before drawing away to a 5 3/4-length victory. This performance sent shockwaves through the 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, as Nearly’s price plummeted across all major sportsbooks. The clock stopped at 1:44.52 for the 1 1/16 miles, a time that looks even more impressive when translated into data.
The Beyer Speed Figure of 98 earned by Nearly represents the highest number recorded by any three-year-old in 2026. This isn't an isolated incident; Not This Time progeny are consistently appearing at the top of the speed charts. When you look at the Kentucky Derby contenders, Nearly stands out because he couples high-end speed with the ability to relax. This versatility is the hallmark of the Not This Time line, which descends from the legendary Giant’s Causeway. Professional bettors who analyze 2026 Kentucky Derby betting trends recognize that these horses aren't just fast; they are efficient.
To understand the current 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, we must look at the mechanics of the Not This Time sire power. Not This Time himself was a brilliant two-year-old whose career was cut short by injury, but he transmits a rare "triple threat" to his offspring: early maturity, high cruising speed, and a massive lung capacity. Nearly’s 98 Beyer is a terrifying metric for his rivals because it suggests he has not yet reached his ceiling. Most three-year-olds struggle to break the 90-point barrier in January, yet Nearly has already done it twice this season.
This sire line produces horses that thrive on the American style of racing—aggressive early positioning followed by a sustained drive. Solitude Dude, another rising star by Yaupon (who himself represents the speed-oriented branches of the modern pedigree), adds context to Gulfstream's dominance, though Nearly carries the classic-distance hopes for the Not This Time camp. As we track the Kentucky Derby prep races, the data shows that Not This Time runners maintain their velocity deep into the stretch. This is why the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting pools are seeing a surge of interest in any horse carrying this DNA.
The biggest question facing any Derby hopeful is the ten-furlong distance. Critics often wonder if the brilliance of Not This Time can stretch to the 1 1/4-mile classic distance. However, the pedigree suggests the answer is a resounding yes. Nearly is out of the Mineshaft mare Ib Prospecting. Mineshaft, a Horse of the Year and son of A.P. Indy, provides the perfect stamina anchor for the raw speed of Not This Time. This cross creates a "speed-stamina" hybrid that is ideal for the modern Kentucky Derby.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby betting community is beginning to realize that the old "speed vs. stamina" debate is evolving. We no longer look for plodders who simply keep running; we look for "high-cruising" horses who can sit near a fast pace and still find another gear at the top of the lane. Nearly proved he possesses this gear in the Holy Bull. He didn't just win; he galloped out with immense energy, signaling that the extra distance of the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby will play right into his hooves. This makes him one of the most dangerous Kentucky Derby contenders we have seen in years.
As of today, Nearly sits atop the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 20 points, tied with Golden Tempo but ahead on the strength of his graded stakes earnings and those massive speed figures. While the champion Ted Noffey remains sidelined, the vacuum at the top of the division is being filled by "The Not This Time Influence." When you evaluate the 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, you are essentially betting on which horse can withstand the psychological and physical pressure of 150,000 screaming fans and a 20-horse field.
Nearly’s composure in the Holy Bull suggests he handles pressure with the ease of a veteran. He hounded the favorite, Cannoneer, without becoming "rank" or difficult for Velazquez to manage. This mental maturity is often the deciding factor in 2026 Kentucky Derby betting. If a horse burns too much nervous energy in the paddock or the post parade, they have nothing left for the final quarter-mile. Not This Time’s progeny are noted for their professional demeanors, which is a massive checkmark in the "pro" column for those looking to bet on Kentucky Derby online.
The betting markets are reacting swiftly to the Holy Bull results. In the early winter futures, Nearly was available at 50-1. After his 98 Beyer, those 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds have vanished, replaced by prices in the 12-1 to 15-1 range. If Nearly continues this trajectory through the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Florida Derby, he will likely start as the favorite on the first Saturday in May. Smart money is already moving toward Kentucky Derby futures to lock in value before the final round of prep races.
We are seeing a similar trend with other Not This Time runners across the country. Whether it is Balboa or Blackout Time, the "Time" suffix is becoming a brand name for quality. When you engage in 2026 Kentucky Derby betting, you are looking for consistency. The Not This Time sire line has provided a 36% graded stakes winner rate with its top-tier runners in 2026 so far. This statistical anomaly makes it hard to look elsewhere when constructing your exacta and trifecta tickets for the upcoming Kentucky Derby prep races.
Sire power isn't just about the name on the program; it's about the physical development schedule of the horse. Not This Time runners tend to "peak" exactly when the points are the highest. We saw this with Epicenter and Up to the Mark in previous years, and Nearly appears to be the next iteration of this trend. By dominating the Holy Bull, Nearly has earned the luxury of a light schedule. Pletcher can now focus on fine-tuning the horse rather than chasing points, a luxury not afforded to many other Kentucky Derby contenders.
This tactical advantage trickles down to the 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds. A horse that doesn't have to over-race in February and March is a much fresher horse in May. As you monitor the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, keep a close eye on the "rest" period between starts. If Nearly skips the Fountain of Youth to wait for the Florida Derby, it signals supreme confidence from the Pletcher barn. This type of management is what separates winners from "also-rans" in the history of the Triple Crown.
The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby is no longer a wide-open mystery; it is a showcase for the "Not This Time" dynasty. Nearly has set the bar with a 98 Beyer, and his Holy Bull victory proves that high-speed sire power is the ultimate weapon in the Florida prep cycle. Whether you are a casual fan or a seasoned handicapper, the data is clear: ignore this bloodline at your own peril. The time to act is now.
Are you ready to turn this pedigree insight into a winning ticket? Don't wait for the odds to drop even further as the hype train leaves the station. Stay tuned to US Racing and secure your position for the 152nd Run for the Roses.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
