California’s march to the Kentucky Oaks (GI) set for May 1 at Churchill Downs finally gets underway Saturday as a field of five newly turned 3-year-old fillies will race the 7 furlongs in the $100,000 Santa Ynez Stakes.
The race was originally set for Jan. 3 but postponed because of heavy rains in the area, forcing multiple days of cancellations. The weather forecast for the weekend calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-60s. The Santa Ynez is race 3 in a nine-race card with post time 4 p.m. ET.
Though a Road to the Kentucky Oaks race with points on the line, since only five horses are set to run then the standard points are reduced and only 75% of the original points are proportionally awarded among the finishers.
Since first run in 1952, some of the legends of the division have won the Santa Ynez, including Turkish Trousers, Susan’s Girl, Terlingua, Very Subtle, Serena’s Song, Indian Blessing, Unique Bella, Midnight Bisou and Bellafina.
Hall of Famers Bob Baffert and the late D. Wayne Lukas share top billing as the race’s leading trainer with five apiece. Bill Shoemaker rode the most winners with seven.
Explora is the morning-line favorite for trainer Bob Baffert, who sends out three of the five contenders. The Blame filly debuted impressively in August at Del Mar, winning a maiden special weight by nearly five lengths, defeating Santa Ynez rival Revera in doing so. She was then second in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) in September before capturing the Oak Leaf Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. Her second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) as the 1-2 favorite was disappointing for her connections, but it was an impressive effort and anything close here gets the job done. Cutting back to 7 furlongs should prove her fitness.
Himika breaks from the inside under jockey Kazushi Kimura for Baffert. She brings a mix of highs and lows into this race. The Curlin filly exploded on debut in June at Santa Anita, breaking her maiden by six lengths with a big speed figure, then dominated the Sorrento Stakes (G3) at Del Mar in August. The $900,000 2-year-old in training purchase struggled in subsequent graded efforts, finishing fourth in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and fifth in the Oak Leaf (G2), but rebounded to win the Anoakia Stakes before a second in the Desi Arnaz Stakes last out. With career earnings of $222,822 from three wins in six starts, her recent workouts at Santa Anita have been sharp, including a 5-furlong bullet in 1:00.20 on Dec. 18. She could bounce back if she recaptures early form, but inconsistency is a concern.
Jill Baffert’s Bottle of Rouge broke her maiden impressively in August 2025 at Del Mar at second asking and followed up with a mild upset victory in the Del Mar Debutante at this distance in September where she wired the field and defeated stablemates Explora (second) and Himika (fourth), with La Wally (third) -- all of whom are in this field. That performance earned her a speed figure in the mid-90s, showcasing early pace and finishing kick on a fast track. After the Debutante, she stepped up to the BC Juvenile Fillies where she finished off the board at 9-1. She’s had over two months off since, with steady workouts at Santa Anita, indicating she’s fresh and targeted for this spot. She wasn’t entered in the race a week ago, but the postponement was good timing for a filly who may be peaking at the right time.
Revera will break from gate 4 with jockey Hector Berrios aboard. The John Sadler-trained daughter of Lexitonian enters the Santa Ynez with solid sprint form and consistent improvement, capping it off with an impressive win in the Desi Arnaz Stakes (G3) at Del Mar six weeks ago. She also owns a strong second in the Anoakia over this track back in October. Revera has shown early speed, though she rated last time, and will most likely head to the front again here with a better draw than the first time. Her recent workouts are fair, and she’s surely fit, plus her form suggests she’s peaking at the right time.
La Wally has shown flashes of quality but needs to rebound from a disappointing effort last out in the BC Juvenile Fillies. The Mark Glatt-trained Constitution filly debuted with a narrow win at Del Mar in July then placed third in the Del Mar Debutante. She was second in the Oak Leaf before the Breeders’ Cup, where she never fired and beat just one as a 13-1 outsider. Overall, her figures indicate she’s competitive at graded level, especially around two turns, but the sprint distance here is a logical cut back as she prepares for the Oaks trail. The wide draw might force a wide trip, but if she settles early, she could factor late.
The picks: 1 Explora 2 Himika 3 Bottle of Rouge
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
