Rebel Stakes Loaded with Derby Hopefuls; Picks, Odds

It’s been a brutal winter in many parts of the country. Hot Springs, Arkansas, gets a taste of the nasties this week. With a stretch of brutal cold enveloping the area, Oaklawn Park shuffled the schedule.

Friday’s card was shifted to Saturday. The original Saturday program, including the $1.25 million Rebel Stakes (G2), will move to Sunday (Feb. 23). Sunday’s program will be run on Monday.

I think we got that straight.

The major concern of the jockeying is the possible impact on the Rebel, a 3-year-old stake that awards the winner 50 qualifying points for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Will weather affect the Rebel Stakes field?

The race attracted a field of 14 horses from New Orleans, California, Kentucky, and Texas. With the track closed for training on Wednesday and Thursday, some trainers might opt to look elsewhere.

“If everything just goes good, the plan is to run,” Ted Bowman, co-owner of Speed King, said. “Things change – weather and then training. A lot of those shippers, I don’t know when they’re planning on coming in. It’s probably a little later in the week.”

Speed King, winner of Oaklawns’s Southwest Stakes (G3), is comfortably bedded down at the track to await the Rebel Stakes. But the horses from out of town might either stay home or detour to other races.

Here’s hoping the Rebel holds together because it’s an interesting, competitive event.

Tiztastic can give Asmussen a Derby ontender

It’s been a frustrating week for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen who discovered that Magnitude, his front-running upset winner of the Risen Star (G2), came out of the race with an ankle chip and is off the Derby trail.

Tiztastic. Kentucky Downs Photo.

Fear not, Steve. You can bounce right back into the mix if Tiztastic produces the effort we’re expecting in the Rebel Stakes.

The son of Tiz the Law, the 2020 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner, had a trouble-filled trip in the Southwest where he finished third.

Tiztastic is a steadily improving closer who appears ready to deliver a breakthrough victory.  He reunites with Jose Ortiz who was last aboard for a turf victory at Kentucky Downs in September.

The right jock back in the right spot can make all the difference at a zesty 8-1 morning line price.

Sandman is the 4-1 Favorite

The field also includes Sandman, the Southwest runner-up who is the 4-1 favorite on a wide-open board, and Coal Battle, who owns a three-stakes winning streak, including Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones early last month.

Don’t forget Baffert

And then there’s trainer Bob Baffert, who already has a trio of leading Derby contenders in Barnes, Citizen Bull, and Getaway Car.

Baffert can add to that roster if Madaket Road, third earlier this month in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), runs big.

Post time for the Rebel Stakes is 6:23 p.m. ET.

Now it’s time to break out the woolens and make our Rebel selections. For those who bet on horse racing...

The Picks: 1 Tiztastic, 2 Sandman, 3 Speed King

The field for the $1.25 million Rebel Stakes (G3), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

1 Coal Battle (Juan Vargas, Lonnie Briley), 10-1

2 Admiral Dennis (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox), 12-1

3 Sandman (Cristian Torres, Mark Casse), 4-1

4, Hypnus (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Kenny McPeek), 10-1

5 Madaket Road (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Bob Baffert), 9-2

6 Publisher (Flavien Prat, Steve Asmussen), 20-1

7 Dreaminblue (Francisco Arrieta, Randy Morse), 15-1

8 Innovator (Tyler Bacon, D. Wayne Lukas), 15-1

9 Smoken Wicked (Tyler Gaffalione, Dallas Stewart), 8-1

10 Bullard (Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy), 5-1

11 Speed King (Rafael Bejarano, Ron Moquett), 6-1

12 Brereton's Baytown (Joseph Bealmear, Paul McEntee), 50-1

13 Tiztastic (Jose Ortiz, Steve Asmussen), 8-1

14 Hot Gunner (Harry Hernandez, Scott Young), 50-1

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