Every year on the first Sunday of October, British horseplayers invade Paris. They come to witness and wager on Europe’s most important race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1).
Since 1920, the Arc has been a showcase for some of the best thoroughbreds of all time. Longchamp was where Ribot, Sea-Bird and Mill Reef galloped off into immortality and where all-time greats Sir Ivor and Nijinsky II were upset.
This Sunday the 4-year-old Daryz will try to become the first colt to win back-to-back Arcs since Alleged did it in 1977 and 1978. (The mares Treve and Enable were repeat champions in this century.) The 7-4 morning-line favorite will face 15 opponents, led by two English shippers. The 3-year-old colt Maltese Cross has four wins in five stakes tries this year, and the defeat was a game second in the Epsom Derby (G1). Five-year-old mare Kalpana, a seven-time stakes winner, is 3-for-4 in 2026.
Trainer Francis Graffard is upbeat about Daryz’s chances after the son of Sea the Stars turned in an excellent workout last week under regular rider Mickael Barzalona.
“It was exactly what I wanted to see,” Graffard told racingpost.com. “He’s a very good horse with a massive turn of foot.”
The Arc de Triomphe is one of six Breeders’ Cup “Win, and You’re In” races on ParisLongchamp’s Sunday card. The Arc champion will get an automatic bid to the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) on Oct. 31 at Keeneland. Enable last swept both races in 2018. Like most Arc winners, Daryz skipped the Turf last year.
For those who like to wager on international racing, here’s a horse-by-horse analysis of the Arc field, with trainer, jockey, and odds. We’ll begin with favored Daryz, followed by the main challengers and the longshots.
Unlike in North America, in Europe a horse’s post position number is not the same as its number for betting, which is on its saddlecloth. For example, Daryz is in post 5, but if you want to bet on him, use number 1.
Post time for the Arc is 10:05 a.m. ET
Defending champion is a deserving favorite – he’s 4-for-4 at ParisLongchamp and versatile enough to handle any kind of ground. He won last year’s Arc on soft turf. The course is expected to be good to firm on Sunday. “I really prefer good to firm for him,” Graffard said.
Won the 1½-mile Prix Foy (G2) with ease last time out. “It was a perfect prep,” Graffard said, “and he’ll come on plenty for that.”
Barzalona on his mount’s post position:
“Five is a pretty good draw, especially when you look at how the good horses are spread out. I’m pretty confident.”
High-class colt hasn’t run a bad one this year, winning four stakes and running second on a soft Epsom course he didn’t like. Won the 12-furlong Grand Prix de Paris (G1) at ParisLongchamp. Marquand: “He’s agile and athletic.” As for course conditions, the firmer the better for him. Haggas expects a strong performance, saying, “He’s in the best form we can have him in.”
High-class mare is 3-for-4 this year with three Group 1 wins. Only loss was by a nose in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot. Ran seventh in last year’s Arc, when she didn’t handle the soft turf and met traffic problems. With a decent trip, she should be in contention in the mid-stretch. “She’s better now than she’s ever been,” Keane said.
Talented 3-year-old filly was unluckiest in the draw, getting stuck in the outside post.
She is 5-for-6 in stakes, with her only loss coming in her last race, when she finished two lengths behind the tough mare Aventure, a seven-time stakes winner. Problem: She’s never raced past 1 5/16 miles. “We think she’ll be tighter and fitter than she was at Deauville,” O’Brien said.
Dominated fillies by 3¼ lengths on yielding ground at Epsom Downs in the 1½-mile English Oaks (G1), so distance is not a question mark. O’Brien, like his father, has won many big races around the world, so respect this 3-year-old as a live longshot. Boudot replaces Dylan Browne McMonagle, who is injured.
Only defeat in five races was a close fourth behind Maltese Cross in the 12-furlong Grand Prix de Paris (G1) at Longchamp. Prepped for the Arc with a course-and-distance victory in the Prix Niel (G2). It will be no shock if Daryz’s stablemate finishes in the top four.
The four-year-old ran a solid second, beaten 1¾ lengths by Daryz in a four-horse Prix Foy (G2). His 2026 highlight was a 7-1 upset in the Coronation Cup (G1), where he beat two Aidan O’Brien standouts, Jan Brueghel and dual Derby hero Lambourn, and superstar Calandagan. Negative stat: He’s 3-for-12 in stakes.
This 4-year-old filly hasn’t been the same horse she was last year, when she won three Group 1 stakes and lost the Arc by a head to Daryz’s late charge. She’s lost her last four races, and it’s unrealistic to expect a major turnaround against by far the best field she’s faced in 2026.
She just broke a three-race losing streak by leading throughout 1½ miles in ParisLongchamp’s Prix Vermeille (G1). That was her first win since 2024, also at ParisLongchamp. A quality mare would fit much better against other females.
Struggled in his last two races (fifth as 2-5 favorite, third) after beating stablemate Christmas Day, the Epsom Derby (G1) hero, in the Irish Derby (G1). O’Brien is the world’s best trainer, and passing up big odds on him is hard to do, but expecting this guy to do a 180 is unrealistic.
The Japanese have been chasing an Arc trophy in vain since the Nineties, and they’ve tried with much better horses than this guy. Hasn’t raced since June, and that was only his second run this year.
Goes for the big prize after earning his first Group 1 triumph in Germany’s Grosser Preis von Baden. Looks like a classic overreach, although Varian said, “I’m quite confident he’ll outrun his odds.” Even if he does, a bet on him is most unlikely to be profitable.
He’s only 2-for-9 in Japan and lost three straight Grade 1 stakes there. No chance.
Two-time Arc winner Rouget is the overwhelming sentimental favorite as he sends out his last Arc runner. He’s suffered from cancer for two years and is retiring this month. Too bad this colt has nowhere near the talent of his Arc champions, Sottsass (2020) and Ace Impact (2023), who was named Cartier Horse of the Year.
What’s he doing in the Arc? He’s 1-for-6 lifetime and 0-for-5 in stakes.
Just missed last time in a Group 2 at Deauville, dropping his record in stakes to 2-for-7. This is an impossible spot for a Group 1 debut.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
