Baltimore’s nickname is Charm City, and the charm of its signature race is that if the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner shows up, there’s a chance for a Triple Crown. Times change, and no longer is the Preakness an automatic destination for the Derby champion.
The modern thoroughbred isn’t nearly as sturdy as his ancestors, and few trainers like to run horses on only two weeks’ rest. Another factor may be the diminished mystique of the Triple Crown. Sweeps three years apart by American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) proved it can still be done, but those feats also made it less of an obsession.
Which leaves the Preakness Stakes stuck in the middle, literally and figuratively. Saturday’s race won’t have Derby hero Sovereignty, who will await the Belmont Stakes (G1). Old school horseman Bill Mott’s decision to bypass the Preakness was no surprise and drew little backlash. Such a move during the Triple Crown drought between 1978 and 2015 would have been unheard of.
Fortunately, runner-up Journalism will keep the race’s 150th running from being a Preakness with a weakness. Without the beaten Derby favorite, the buzz would have been minimal.
Hall of Famer Mark Casse, winner of the 2019 Preakness with War of Will, trains deep closer Sandman, the 4-1 second choice in the morning line.
“Look, Journalism is definitely the horse to beat, he has already proven that,” Casse said. “We don't know how he is going to react to the two weeks, and we don't know how it will be for us.”
Will Journalism redeem himself at short odds, or can one of the other Derby also-rans, Sandman and American Promise, pull an upset? Or will another new shooter repeat what longshot Seize the Grey did last year? Hopefully, this breakdown, by post position, will help you make the right decision.
For those who bet horse racing ...
1 GOAL ORIENTED (Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat), 6-1
Expect this very quick colt to gun from the rail and lead as far as he goes for top connections. Baffert is going for a record-extending ninth Preakness win, and nobody is riding as well as Prat. Lack of experience is only negative for versatile 2-for-2 colt who never has been beyond 1 1/16 miles or competed in a stakes. Wet track wouldn't be a problem for colt who led throughout 1 1/16 miles in slop on Derby undercard. Definitely belongs in exotics and worth a small win play.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
2 JOURNALISM (Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli), 8-5
Journalism couldn’t overcome a rough start in the Derby, where he fell too far behind heading for the first turn. Still, he looked like a winner in upper stretch before Sovereignty ran him down. There’s no opponent in this field as good as that colt, and with a decent trip Journalism should emulate the 2007 Preakness victory by his sire, Curlin. Just like in Louisville, beat him to win.
Betting verdict: The pick
3 AMERICAN PROMISE (D. Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez), 15-1
Free-running colt endured a rough trip and faded to 16th in the Derby, but he showed grit after encountering early trouble. Glaring weakness is his record in graded stakes (0-for-3, beaten a total of 58 lengths). Oddity: May foal is one of the youngest in the field but has the most experience (this will be his 11th start). Could be a pace casualty.
Betting verdict: Toss
4 HEART OF HONOR (Jamie Osborne, Saffie Osborne), 12-1
English shipper with father-daughter connection is a massive underlay at 12-1. Finished second in the 1 3/16-mile UAE Derby (G2) to Admire Daytona, who was last of 19 in the Kentucky Derby, beaten more than 50 lengths. Not exactly a plus. Heart of Honor also ran second in the 1 3/16-mile prep for the UAE Derby, so distance isn't a concern, but the massive class jump is a problem.
Betting verdict: Toss
5 PAY BILLY (Michael Gorham, Raul Mena), 20-1
Received an automatic Preakness berth by cruising in the 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel. Time was slow, with his final furlong in a plodding 13 2/5 seconds. Picks a rough spot to make his graded stakes debut. Would fit far better in one of Saturday's undercard stakes.
Betting verdict: Toss
6 RIVER THAMES (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, Jr.), 9-2
The Preakness is one of the few major races that Pletcher hasn't won, and the brilliant Ortiz also is a maiden in it. Pletcher excels with layoff horses, and River Thames hasn't run since a close third April 8 in the Blue Grass (G1). His career highlight was losing by a neck to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in early March. Stamina, not talent, is the big concern for a New York-bred who's 0-for-2 beyond a mile.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
7 SANDMAN (Mark Casse, John Velazquez), 4-1
Buzz on social media and connection to the Metallica song "Enter Sandman" contributed to his 5-1 odds in the Derby, one of the race's biggest underlays in recent years. Was overbet after going last to first in a weak Arkansas Derby (G1), where a very hot pace provided a perfect setup. Never got involved at Churchill and finished seventh, beaten 12 1/2 lengths. Can't see him contending on a track that usually plays against horses with his running style.
Betting verdict: Toss
8 CLEVER AGAIN (Steve Asmussen, Jose Ortiz), 5-1
Speedy son of American Pharoah likely will contest the early pace with Goal Oriented and American Promise. Makes big class rise in his first graded stakes after going wire to wire in four-length romp in listed event at Oaklawn Park. Looks to be in over his head.
Betting verdict: Toss
9 GOSGER (Brendan Walsh, Luis Saez), 20-1
Gets his Preakness shot after winning comfortably in so-so renewal of Keeneland's Lexington Stakes (G3). Stalker has been training well since, and count on hot-riding Saez to give him the best possible trip, probably from midpack. Not a win candidate, but 20-1 feels like an overlay.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
Preakness Betting Picks: 1 Journalism 2 Goal Oriented 3 River Thames 4 Gosger
