Odds on Eclipse Awards?  Imagining What They Might Look Like

Many years ago – maybe 1997 – I managed to pick the winner in every one of the 16 Eclipse Award categories. An officer of the National Turf Writers Association saw my ballot and sent a postcard to congratulate me.

Any accurate prediction is always a highlight, especially when it comes to horse racing, where being right is usually accompanied by a financial reward. Too bad there was no such thing as a Pick 16 to bet on.

There must have been quite a few no-brainer selections that year, because otherwise I never would have been able to go 16-for-16. There were some easy ones in this year’s voting, but there were plenty of categories with more than a few serious contenders.

I’d be surprised and impressed if any member of the three voting blocs – National Turf Writers and Broadcasters, Daily Racing Form, and National Thoroughbred Association – turned in a perfect ballot.

 (There are now 17 categories because Female Sprinter was not added until 2008.)

My chances of getting them all right this year are minimal, if not nonexistent. That’s to be expected, because horse racing is about differing opinions. Yet it’s mainly about odds, so let me pretend that I’m a bookmaker estimating the chances to win among the three finalists in each category.

There’s no way that my top-rated horse wasn’t the leading vote-getter in these categories: Horse of the Year, 2-Year-Old Male, 3-Year-Old Male, Older Dirt Male, Older Dirt Female, Owner, and Breeder. As for the others, I have many doubts, but losing imaginary wagers stings only the ego, not the online account.

The winners will be announced on Jan. 22, but in case you’re wondering what the odds might be – if betting on the Eclipse Awards was a thing ... here’s our take:

Horse of the Year

Sovereignty (1-2), Forever Young (6-1), Journalism (100-1)

2-Year-Old Male

Ted Noffey (1-20) should be unanimous, Gstaad (100-1), Brant (100-1)

2-Year-Old Filly

Cy Fair (3-1), Super Corredora (7-2), Explora (6-1)

3-Year-Old Male

Sovereignty (1-20), should be a unanimous choice, Journalism (100-1), Baeza (100-1)

3-Year-Old Filly

Nitrogen (5-2), Shisospicy (7-2), Good Cheer (8-1)

Older Dirt Male

Forever Young (3-5), Nysos (6-1), Sierra Leone (10-1)

Older Dirt Female

Thorpedo Anna (4-5), Scylla (6-1), Splendora (8-1)

Male Sprinter

Nysos (8-5), Book’em Danno (7-2), Bentornato (6-1)

Female Sprinter

Shisospicy (8-5), Splendora (5-1), Ag Bullet (10-1)

Male Turf

Rebel’s Romance (2-1), Notable Speech (2-1), Deterministic (8-1)

Female Turf

She Feels Pretty (5-2), Gezora (7-2), Shisospicy (8-1)

Steeplechase

Cool Jet (5-2), Zanahiyr (7-2), Swore (5-1)

Owner

Godolphin (1-5), Klaravich Stables (40-1), Juddmonte (40-1)

Breeder

Godolphin (1-5), WinStar Farm (40-1), Don Alberto Corporation (40-1)

Jockey

Flavien Prat (9-5), Irad Ortiz Jr., (5-2), John Velázquez (10-1)

Apprentice Jockey

Christopher Elliott (5-2), Pietro Moran (3-1), Yedsit Hazlewood (4-1)

Trainer

Bill Mott (2-1), Brad Cox (3-1), Bob Baffert (6-1)

Ed McNamara

Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.