Congratulations to the connections of Sovereignty and Journalism for setting up a rematch of the Triple Crown rivals.
It's so rare to see superstars take each other on in their season debuts, and it will be a treat for fans to watch these two go at it Saturday in the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Handicap (G1).
Maybe 50,000 or even more will be there in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
“Attendance projection hopes are high,” track executive Chris Ho said. “With this big race, we are hearing of many people making a special trip from out of state to see it.”
Adding to its prestige is the confrontation of international superpowers Godolphin, Sovereignty's owner-breeder, and Coolmore, which bought into Journalism a year ago to claim his breeding rights when he retires. Godolphin's royal blue silks have competed against Coolmore's royal blue, orange, and white hundreds of times, but this duel stands out as special.
As for the timing of the battle, Sovereignty's Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott summed it up well:
“We need to get started.”
Let's get it on.
For those who like to bet on horse racing, here's a horse-by-horse analysis of the Oaklawn Handicap, with jockey, trainer, and morning line odds in parentheses. Post time is 7:20 p.m. ET.
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | M/L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | White Abarrio | I Ortiz, Jr. | S A Joseph, Jr. | 7/2 | |
| 2 | Liberal Arts | R Arrieta | H Irion | 15/1 | |
| 3 | Sovereignty | J Alvarado | W I Mott | 4/5 | |
| 4 | Duke of Duval | K J Asmussen | S M Asmussen | 20/1 | |
| 5 | Journalism | J L Ortiz | M W McCarthy | 5/2 | |
| 6 | Publisher | E Asmussen | S M Asmussen | 15/1 |
Last Updated on 04/13/2026
Looked like the winner in the mid-stretch of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) before fading to second behind surging closer Skippylongstocking, his stablemate. That was an impressive return off a four-month layoff for this 7-year-old, whose resume includes Grade 1 triumphs in the Breeders' Cup Classic, Pegasus World Cup, Whitney Stakes, and Florida Derby. But those races are in the distant past, and White Abarrio has lost four in a row. Can't see him doing better than third against Sovereignty and Journalism.
What's this guy doing in this race? Let's count the reasons why he doesn't belong. He's 0-for-4 at Oaklawn, hasn't raced in more than 11 months, his trainer is 0-for-15 this year, and he hasn't won a graded stakes since 2023.
The reigning Horse of the Year easily defeated archrival Journalism in their two meetings last season, both at 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1). Journalism is 0-for-4 at 10 furlongs, but he's 2-for-2 at 1 1/8 miles, where Sovereignty is 1-for-2. So, that's a possible edge for the challenger. Also, don't expect Mott to have his champion fully cranked in his first race since August, and perhaps he'll be vulnerable at the shorter distance.
Betting Advice: Win contender
Here's another horse who clearly doesn't belong in this field. He's 0-for-2 in Grade 3 stakes in his career, both this year. He wasn't competitive in either, losing by a combined 8 1/4 lengths, and should be far back on Saturday.
Journalism had better speed figures than Sovereignty entering the Derby, which is why McCarthy's horse was the 3-1 favorite, and Mott's star was 7-1. Journalism always gives it his all, and his only off-the-board finish last year was a fourth in the Classic, the finale of a long season. My gut feeling is that his connections want this win more than Mott does and that he's more primed to give a top effort. Just a hunch, but his more generous odds make him the preferable play.
You won't find many sets of past performances like this colt's. He was 0-for-12 before winning his last three races. Another statistical oddity: He was favored in his last five starts, including four times at odds-on. Problem: He was 0-for-6 in graded stakes before he won a race. No chance in this one.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
