If it's a Group 1 stakes in Europe, Aidan O'Brien will saddle the favorite. Well, not always, but most of the time.
The latest example occurs Thursday (Jul 31), when O'Brien's three-time stakes winner Whirl leads a field of five in the 1 1/4-mile Nassau Stakes (G1) for fillies and mares at Goodwood.
Victory in the "Win and You're In" Breeders' Cup Challenge race will earn a berth in the Filly & Mare Turf (G1) Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
O'Brien was gushing about the 3-year-old, and for good reason, after she defeated Kalpana by 1 1/4 lengths June 28 in the 1 1/4-mile Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh. Whirl's first Group 1 success came over the 4-year-old filly who's the 7-1 future-book favorite for the Oct. 5 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1), Europe's most prestigious race. Whirl, the 11-1 second choice, would move up with a Nassau win.
“Whirl is very special and very tough,” O'Brien said. “She is one of those hard and genuine racing machines with big lungs -- she's all muscle and bone. She's an incredible filly and loves getting into a fight.”
She's the 7-5 early-line favorite for a 185-year-old race O'Brien has won five times, including last year with Opera Singer. Andrew Balding trains the 4-year-old See The Fire, the 9-5 second choice and the main threat to Whirl. See The Fire was second by a neck to Opera Singer in last year's Nassau, and Balding is upbeat about her chances.
“We thought she ran a super race at Ascot against the boys in the Prince of Wales's Stakes [third],” he said. "It was a career-best performance, and she'll have an easier time, you would think, against her own sex in the Nassau. It's never easy at Group 1 level, but she's going in there in great shape.”
Post time is 10:05 a.m. ET on Thursday.
For those who bet horse racing, here's a horse-by-horse analysis. The field from the rail out, with jockey, trainer and odds in parentheses:
She's 0-for-6 dating to last year, beaten by a total of 66 3/4 lengths. Best effort came last fall [second in a Group 1 on very soft turf in Paris]. She won't get that kind of ground in the Nassau and is in over her head.
Likes the course and distance and goes well on firm ground -- two wins and a solid third in the Prince of Wales's Stakes. She finished behind two stars [multiple-stakes winners Ombudsman and Anmaat] that day at Royal Ascot, so she has class. A solid alternative to Whirl.
Ran a strong second on soft going June 15 in the 1 1/4-mile French Oaks (G1), but she's 0-for-4 since last August. Lordan usually rides the pacesetter to set up O'Brien's best runners, so expect him to perform that service for Whirl. Won two 7-furlong stakes, so the speed is there, and might hang on for third.
Pulled off one of the major upsets at the Royal Ascot meeting by taking the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at odds of 33-1. Never been farther than a mile, so 10 furlongs is a big question mark. Her only off-the-board finish was a seventh last year in a race won by Whirl.
Contrarian bettors hope she regresses after two terrific races, the Pretty Polly and the 1 1/2-mile Epsom Oaks (G1). In the Oaks she nearly beat stablemate Minnie Hauk, who took the Irish Oaks (G1) in her next start. Likely to go off at even money or lower, so a win bet isn't enticing.
$20 exacta with Whirl on top of See The Fire and a $10 exacta reversing them.
