Leading Change: Post 2; Morning Line: 12-1
Trainer: Brad Cox; Jockey: Manny Franco
Tuesday, Aug. 24, 2026
This son of standout sire Gun Runner did what few horses can do: win a graded stakes in his second lifetime start. He’s 2-for-2 and already has earned almost a quarter of a million dollars. However, he couldn’t have been given a tougher assignment on Saturday – go from 1 1/16 miles to 1¼ miles against the best horses in the 3-year-old division.
Brad Cox is hopeful the inexperienced colt can repeat what he did last month at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This field is exponentially tougher, led by Grade 1 winners Golden Tempo, Napoleon Solo, Renegade and Baby Vino.
“Big-time pedigree and we think he’s a big-time horse,” said Cox, who knows he’s taking a shot. “We’re excited about what he’s showed us.”
He’s looked great in his last three workouts, all going 5 furlongs at Cox’s Churchill Downs base. He was timed in 59 4/5 seconds, 1:01 1/5 and 1:00 4/5.
“I’m very happy with how he’s training,” Cox said. “He’s happy and fresh and enjoying the weather up here in Saratoga.”
All that is well and good, but his speed figures don’t class up with his standout opponents, and he’ll be going three-sixteenths of a mile farther than he’s ever run.
Manny Franco, who’s having a terrific meet at Saratoga, replaces regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., who’s recovering from a lingering foot injury.
Leading Change probably will attempt to outrun Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Napoleon Solo for the early lead, with Sea Strike not far behind. If Franco can get to the front and stay there, he’ll try to give Leading Change a breather before Golden Tempo and Renegade make their late moves. Then expect Leading Change to fade and back up. He looks like a colt who will win more stakes, but it won’t be this one.
I don’t think the 12-1 morning line accurately reflects Leading Change’s win chances. Insist at least 15-1, and if you play him, don’t expect to cash. Toss.
-- By Ed McNamara
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
