The path to the Kentucky Derby is always unpredictable, but certain barns manage to rise above the chaos year after year. Some trainers thrive on early-season dominance, some rely on slow-developing colts that peak at the right time, and others show up with so much firepower that bettors simply brace for impact. Based on early 2026 points standings, recent success, and historical trends, several names stand out as the most influential Kentucky Derby trainers heading into the new season.
Below is a full breakdown of which trainers have the strongest early prospects, which have been consistently successful in recent years, and which barns seem best-positioned to capture the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
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Todd Pletcher enters nearly every Kentucky Derby season with serious attention, but the 2026 cycle gives him more than reputation; it gives him a commanding early leader. His colt Ted Noffey sits at the top of the current Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 40 points, already establishing dominance in prep-season competition.
Pletcher’s long-term résumé continues to justify why he belongs at the center of the conversation. He has conditioned two Kentucky Derby winners, Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017, and routinely fields deep barns with elite pedigrees and disciplined training patterns that carry horses through multiple stages of the prep trail.
His success is rooted in structure. Pletcher uses prep races with surgical precision, choosing spots that build stamina without overextending his horses. He rarely rushes development, and history shows his colts tend to peak between late March and Derby Day. With Ted Noffey already emerging as a potential star, Pletcher currently holds the strongest blend of points, momentum, and experience.
Among all Kentucky Derby trainers, Pletcher is the one sitting in the best tactical position for 2026.
Few trainers in the current landscape carry as much upward momentum as Kenny McPeek, and with good reason. His 2024 Kentucky Derby victory with Mystik Dan cracked open the door to one of the sport’s most sought-after achievements. That breakthrough has had a ripple effect: owners are sending him more talented colts, and his program is producing Derby-caliber runners at a higher rate.
For 2026, McPeek already appears in the early scene with several colts gaining points. Horses like Universe and Blackout Time have shown early ability, even if they remain raw. McPeek often thrives with exactly these types of horses: young runners that need time and repetition to mature, yet possess enough upside to become legitimate threats by the spring.
McPeek’s style revolves around patient development, fitness-focused training, and a willingness to run his horses into form. In races like the Blue Grass Stakes, the Risen Star, and even certain lower-tier preps, his trainees often make noticeable leaps forward. After finally proving he can scale racing’s biggest mountain, McPeek enters the 2026 trail not as an outsider, but as one of the Kentucky Derby trainers most capable of repeating success.
There is no name in the sport more polarizing than Bob Baffert, but even his critics acknowledge one truth: when he is eligible to compete and has the right horse, he is lethal.
Baffert holds a record-tying six Kentucky Derby wins, including American Pharoah and Justify. Few trainers understand the demands of the 10-furlong Derby trip the way he does. His horses typically possess strong early speed, powerful cruising pace, and the ability to withstand pressure.
For 2026, Baffert’s barn looks deep. He has three early contenders with points: Litmus Test and Brant (each with 9 points), and Desert Gate (5 points), plus Plutarch entering the mix with 3. None has separated from the pack yet, but the raw talent is obvious.
The issue with Baffert is volatility. His colts often run huge races early in the season, but their paths to Churchill Downs can get disrupted by eligibility concerns or unexpected layoffs. If his horses qualify cleanly and remain healthy, he becomes one of the most dangerous Kentucky Derby trainers in the entire field.
But bettors must approach his candidates with both respect and caution. His ceiling remains unmatched. His floor is an unpredictable void.
No trainer in North American history has more career victories than Steve Asmussen, and yet the Kentucky Derby continues to escape him. It is one of the most surprising anomalies in modern racing. He has finished second, finished third, and produced countless elite runners across every surface and distance, but the Kentucky Derby trophy stays just out of reach.
For 2026, Asmussen is represented on the early leaderboard by Spice Runner with 11 points. The colt shows promise and may be the type who improves sharply with more distance. Asmussen’s training system tends to produce durable, battle-ready horses who thrive through the spring campaign.
The challenge is that his typical running style — stalkers or pace-pressers — sometimes gets compromised in the deep Derby field. If Spice Runner or another barnmate develops more tactical speed in the spring, Asmussen could finally break the drought.
Among all Kentucky Derby trainers, he remains the most overdue.
Below the top tier, several trainers hold live chances based on early-season points and the upside of their horses:
• Jeff Mullins with Intrepido (13 points)
• Vladimir Cerin with Mr. A.P. (15 points)
• Chad Summers with Napoleon Solo (10 points)
• Riley Mott with Incredibolt (10 points)
• Eddie Kenneally with Comport (5 points)
• Danny Gargan with Talkin (5 points)
• Doug O’Neill with Civil Liberty (2 points)
Many of these stables have produced major prep winners in the past, even when they lacked star-level name recognition. They remain wildcards as the 2026 trail unfolds.
Based on current data, early points, historical performance, and recent trends, the most likely trainer to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby is Todd A. Pletcher. Ted Noffey’s early dominance gives him the strongest head start, and Pletcher’s proven method of preparing Kentucky Derby contenders sets the stage for a peak performance in May.
Ranking the trainers as of now:
As the points races continue, these names will shape the landscape of the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby. If history holds, the winner will almost certainly come from a trainer already making noise today.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
