The $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) launches us squarely into the final, critical stage of the two-year-old horse racing season, transforming promising juveniles into serious, verifiable three-year-old Kentucky Derby contenders. This 1 1/16-mile test represents much more than a Grade 2 purse; it establishes the pecking order on the West Coast, rewarding the top five finishers with 10-5-3-2-1 points, a vital injection of momentum on the official Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Horseplayers and analysts keenly watch this race because it often provides immediate, actionable intelligence on which colts possess the foundational class and two-turn stamina necessary for the first Saturday in May. We dissect the small but elite field, dominated by the formidable Bob Baffert stable, and determine precisely how this outcome will re-engineer the early Kentucky Derby odds and influence your bet on Kentucky Derby strategy for the spring classics.
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History validates the Los Alamitos Futurity’s profound significance within the ecosystem of Kentucky Derby prep races. Though the race shifted locations from Hollywood Park and earned a Grade 2 downgrade in 2019, its ability to produce Triple Crown timber remains indisputable. Previous winners or starters include Derby champions Real Quiet, Ferdinand, Alysheba, and Giacomo, proving this December challenge serves as a powerful crucible for stamina and class.
The legendary Bob Baffert, who has historically treated this race as his personal proving ground, holds an astonishing 14 victories in this event, including seven consecutive wins between 2014 and 2020. This year, Baffert fields three top-tier prospects: Litmus Test, Provenance, and Blacksmith, highlighting his continued reliance on this race to condition his most talented juveniles for the arduous campaign ahead. Analyzing Baffert’s dominance here becomes an indispensable part of handicapping the Triple Crown trail, forcing us to consider which of his runners possess the tactical speed and pedigree to follow in the footsteps of champions like Point Given, who also won this race before securing victories in the Preakness and Belmont.
The morning line favorite, Litmus Test (4/5 ML), already possesses 9 valuable points, positioning him securely at number 10 on the current Kentucky Derby leaderboard entering the Futurity. His participation confirms his status as a national-level threat, largely due to his fourth-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), where he ran only 1 ¾ lengths behind the undefeated champion, Ted Noffey. That performance, achieved over this exact 1 1/16-mile distance, showcased both his resilience and his ability to handle elite competition at two turns. A victory here earns him the maximum 10 points, catapulting his total to 19 points, a figure that would immediately displace Mr. A.P. (15 points) and place him either second or third overall on the current standings. Such a massive leap early in the prep season provides his connections with critical flexibility, allowing them to selectively target fewer, highly lucrative final prep races later in the spring, which significantly shortens his required trail distance and makes him a much safer option in Kentucky Derby futures pools.
Bob Baffert utilizes this race to properly test the stamina and mental fortitude of his deep bench of talented colts, providing the perfect stage for Provenance (5/1 ML) and Blacksmith (5/1 ML) to validate their immense pedigree. Provenance commands particular attention as the first foal out of the two-time Eclipse Award-winning champion Monomoy Girl, instantly conferring blue-chip potential on the Into Mischief colt.
While he failed his first two-turn attempt, he rebounded with an impressive maiden sprint win, and Baffert boasts a 32% win rate when transitioning horses from sprints to routes on the dirt track, signaling his confidence in the colt’s pedigree and fitness for this distance. Blacksmith, a son of Liam’s Map, finished runner-up to the formidable Acknowledgement in his debut, displaying raw potential that needs further polishing. The presence of three Baffert horses, all challenging for the winner's share of points, forces handicappers to weigh the immense class represented by the stable against the specific competitive dynamics of a small field, making the Kentucky Derby betting calculation complex but rewarding.
Doug O’Neill’s Acknowledgemeplz (7/2 ML) offers the single biggest threat to Bob Baffert’s dominance, presenting a viable alternative for players looking to bet on Kentucky Derby contenders outside the heavy favorite’s barn. The Florida-bred ridgling enters the Futurity off a visually impressive maiden score, having posted an eye-popping speed figure that suggests a profound increase in ability and maturity since his debut. Drawn perfectly on the rail, Acknowledgemeplz, ridden by Armando Ayuso, projects to settle just off the pace, utilizing his tactical speed to pounce when the Baffert runners begin to tire.
The collaboration between O’Neill and Ayuso has proven profitable in the California circuit, giving this runner an edge in local knowledge and familiarity with the Los Alamitos surface. Acknowledgemeplz showed significant improvement in his last effort, demonstrating he handles pressure and accelerates powerfully through the lane. His challenge is to extend his proven sprint prowess to the two-turn demands of 1 1/16 miles, a transition that separates contenders from hopefuls this time of year.
John Sadler sends out Captivator (6/1 ML), another dominant maiden winner who broke his maiden by an astounding 10 ¼ lengths at Del Mar. That decisive victory showcased explosive power, but his lack of stakes experience and the jump from a six-furlong sprint to a demanding 1 1/16-mile route require a leap of faith for prospective bettors. Sadler, a multiple Breeders’ Cup winner, clearly rates this Charlatan colt highly, believing the immense natural talent outweighs the experience deficit.
His presence ensures the pace remains honest, preventing the Baffert trio from dictating terms easily. Meanwhile, American King (30/1 ML), the lone maiden in the field for trainer Ruben Gomez, enters this race as a significant longshot, primarily needing to demonstrate meaningful improvement to contend for any of the crucial Kentucky Derby prep races points. While his American Pharoah pedigree suggests distance is attainable, his current form necessitates dramatic forward progress to challenge the established stakes performers in this tough field.
The 10-5-3-2-1 structure of the Los Alamitos Futurity immediately impacts the middle tier of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, creating significant movement with implications for future point schedules. Looking at the current standings, the winner with 19 total points (Litmus Test, if he wins) would establish an early lock on a spot in the starting gate for the 152nd Run for the Roses.
Conversely, a horse like Provenance or Acknowledgement winning with only a few prior points immediately establishes them as a genuine contender, forcing trainers of horses ranked 10th through 20th, such as Litmus Test (9 points) and Brant (9 points), to reassess their spring plans. If a horse currently outside the top 20 snags the 5 or 3 points for placing second or third, those early markers provide crucial confidence and help connections secure a spot in better, future Kentucky Derby prep races offering 20 points or more. The small field size makes earning points here more likely, amplifying the race's impact, particularly on horses like Blackout Time and Talkin, who sit precariously low with only 5 points each.
The outcome of the Los Alamitos Futurity will create immediate and dramatic volatility in the Kentucky Derby odds and the winter Kentucky Derby futures pools. If Litmus Test, the public favorite, delivers a decisive victory, expect his odds in the futures market to contract sharply, potentially moving him into the single-digit territory alongside top East Coast or Kentucky-based winners like Ted Noffey. This victory would provide massive confidence for players already holding futures tickets on the Baffert colt.
Conversely, if an outsider like Acknowledgemeplz or Captivator triumphs, the betting landscape will open up. Their win would instantly lengthen the odds on the established Baffert runners while simultaneously drawing sharp money into the market, driving down the price of the new West Coast champion. Understanding this reciprocal relationship between the race result and the futures odds is essential for anyone looking to bet on Kentucky Derby horses during the off-season successfully. This race serves as a powerful catalyst, either confirming the status quo or signaling a major sea change in the march toward May. The moment the results flash across the wire, serious horseplayers adjust their portfolios, moving money into the winners whose price will likely never be this high again once they enter the heavy-hitting 50 and 100-point preps.
Bob Baffert’s entries require granular scrutiny and represent the most powerful hand in the Futurity. Provenance carries the heavy expectations of his dam, Monomoy Girl, a champion whose grit and distance-running ability suggest Provenance only needs conditioning to excel at 1 1/16 miles and beyond. His third-place finish in a one-mile debut to the talented Intrepido, who later won the Grade 1 American Pharoah, strongly suggests he handles distance and class. His tactical speed allows Provenance to stalk the pace, a position that proves highly advantageous at Los Alamitos. Blacksmith, on the other hand, faces a more challenging assignment, needing to improve his speed figures to challenge the leading trio significantly.
His pedigree, though, provides hope; he is a son of Curlin, a sire who consistently produces late-developing runners who thrive on distance. Baffert’s masterful handling of the Futurity ensures that, regardless of the winner, the entire field receives a rigorous test, preparing them for the greater challenges ahead in the January and February Kentucky Derby prep races.
The Los Alamitos Futurity closes the book on the two-year-old season and writes the first crucial chapters of the three-year-old campaign. The small, potent field guarantees action and immediate movement on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, transforming prospects into proven commodities or exposing pretenders.
The winners and key placers here command better Kentucky Derby odds and demand immediate respect in the Kentucky Derby futures market. You cannot afford to watch this pivotal race simply; you must act on the intelligence it provides. Stop waiting for the spring classics to make your move. We provide the comprehensive analysis, pedigree breakdown, and point projections you need to capitalize right now. Stay tuned to US Racing to access the fastest odds, exclusive analysis, and direct access to place your bet on Kentucky Derby contenders before the market fully adjusts to the seismic shift coming from Los Alamitos this weekend.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
