Anyone betting on Saturday’s $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1) would be foolish to ignore 3-year-olds trained by Bob Baffert -- even if his two colts are among the many longshots in the field.
First off, it’s Baffert, the Hall of Fame trainer, two-time Triple Crown winner, and six-time Derby winner with a record 17 victories in Triple Crown races.
His Derby record? This will be his 23rd Derby: He's sent out 36 starters since 1996 with six wins, three seconds, and three thirds for an on-the-board strike rate of 33% (he’s had multiple starters 10 times). His top 3 strike rate is 12 in 22 Derbys – a superb 54%.
Three of six Derby winners were favorites: Silver Charm at 9-2 in 1997 and Triple Crown winners American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018, both at 5-2.
His other winners were Real Quiet at 8-1 in 1998, War Emblem at 20-1 in 2002, and Authentic in 2020 at 8-1. His Medina Spirit finished first in 2021 at 12-1 but was later disqualified to 19th after a race-day overage of a legal medication.
With that, it still may be difficult to see Baffert winning what would be a record-setting seventh Derby. He’ll send out Potente at 20-1 and Litmus Test at 30-1.
Both will be up against it and would need the best efforts of their careers to even have a chance to finish in the top 3. The favorite Renegade (4-1) and 6-1 co-second choices Commandment and Further Ado 6-1 – all Grade 1 winners -- seem to be the best of the 20-horse field.
Consider this, though: Every other horse – all 17 of them – has morning-line odds in double digits.
With such tempting odds, and with the favorite failing to win the Derby the past seven years, maybe Baffert is worth a small investment.
A $2.4 million purchase by Speedway Stable had a sizzling workout at Churchill Downs on Sunday (April 26) -- 5 furlongs in 57.40 seconds. Traditionally, California-based colts put up quick works before the Derby, so this could be a good thing.
“He just bounced over the track,’’ Baffert said. “When he came back, it looked like it was nothing for him. That’s a good sign.”
Potente is a son of champion sire Into Mischief – just like Renegade and Commandment – and he’s won 2-of-3 starts. He won the 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita (by a head over So Happy) but was unable to hold off So Happy in the final furlong, finishing second in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Potente will attempt to become just the fourth horse to win the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old. Apollo was the first in 1882 – 136 years later, Baffert’s Justify did it, and so did Mage in 2023. The record of horses in the Derby without a race at 2 since 1937 is 75-2-3-5.
Potente will break from post 14 with jockey Juan Hernandez aboard in his first Derby. His best chance would seem to be stalking the pace (if possible, from an outside post), and then it comes down to the same question facing every entry: Can they finish strong in the 1 ¼-mile Derby, the longest distance these 3-year-olds will run?
Two of the past three Derby winners – Sovereignty in 2025 and Mage in 2023 – finished second in their final preps.
To bet? Yes. $10 across the board; include in 5-horse superfecta.
An $875,000 purchase by SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, et al, Litmus Test moved into the field after Chip Honcho was withdrawn from consideration on Saturday, April 25.
Does he deserve to be here with just 34 Derby points? Maybe. A son of Derby winner Nyquist, Litmus Test has run in four Grade 1s and, with seven career starts, is one of the most experienced in the field.
On Thursday (April 23), Litmus Test worked 5 furlongs in 59.00, an impressive breeze before the Derby.
“If you would have asked me a few days ago (if he’d enter), I wasn’t sure,” Baffert said. “He likes this surface. That’s very important. Some horses don’t go over it as well as others.”
After winning his career debut, Litmus Test ran fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) to close out his 2-year-old campaign. He’s 0-for-2 this year, running second as the 3-2 favorite in the Rebel Stakes (G2) behind Class President and a disappointing seventh in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
Martin Garcia, who has ridden many times for Baffert, will be aboard Litmus Test for the first time. Garcia is 0-for-5 in the Derby, his best finish being third aboard Baffert-trained Dortmund in 2015.
He breaks from post 4, a tough spot since his best running style seems to be on or close to the pace. He’ll have to start quickly and avoid horses on the outside closing in as the field hits the first turn.
To bet? Unlikely winner, but he’s finished in the top 4 in six of seven starts. $2 across the board. (Wouldn’t you hate to miss out on a 30-1 or higher payoff on Baffert winning a record-setting seventh Derby?
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
