A Kentucky Derby trophy, the Holy Grail of thoroughbred racing, has eluded many all-time greats. Steve Asmussen, winningest trainer in North American history, also holds the record for Derby futility (0-for-26). Superpowers Godolphin and Coolmore have been chasing the Kentucky Derby in vain for decades. On the flip side, trainers, riders, and owners have won it on their first try. You never can tell.
Chance plays a significant role in an overflow field (usually 20 horses) that breeds traffic problems and bad trips. No matter how talented the horse may be, if it’s unlucky, it won’t win. And if it gets the breaks, even an 80-1 shot can pose wearing roses, as Rich Strike did three years ago.
(Freaky factoids: The Derby is a strange event whose champion sometimes doesn’t win again. Rich Strike didn't, and neither did 2023 hero Mage, Country House (2019), Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), or Orb (2013). Last year's 18-1 shocker, Mystik Dan, is 0-for-4 since.)
Befitting its status, the Kentucky Derby is also the world’s most compulsively overanalyzed race. Each past-performance line gets obsessive scrutiny, and the Kentucky Derby betting odds too, but as the wise man said, “Think long, think wrong.”
Don’t make the mistake of overcomplicating the puzzle. Don’t invent reasons to tout hopeless longshots. Don’t try to turn it into an equation that automatically spits out the winner. Neither approach makes sense.
Although the Kentucky Derby is unique, why not treat it like any other race? Take your best guess about how the pace will play out and whom it should help or hurt. Divide the field into likeliest winners, marginal contenders, and no-hopers, then hope for the best. If you’re wrong, it’s only one race, even if it’s the one revered above all others.
Who will grab the glory in this year’s 151st running? We’ll find out late Saturday afternoon. Hopefully, this breakdown will help you make the right decision.
Welcome back, Bob. After sitting out three Derbys on a drug suspension, the six-time winner drew the post he dreads most. The last Derby winner to break from the rail was Ferdinand in 1986. Front-runner Citizen Bull rocketed 5 furlongs in 58.60 Monday, so he’ll come out blasting. Conspiracy theory: Fast work sets him up to be a rabbit for stablemate Rodriguez, who may try to sit second.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Neoequos, the third in the Florida Derby after running third to standout Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth. Plusses: In the money, six of seven starts. Minuses: One of many speed types, and winless beyond 6 furlongs. Can’t recommend.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Son of super sire Not This Time, Final Gambit, drew away in a fast final fraction in the 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway’s synthetic surface. Unfortunately, he’s never raced on dirt. Animal Kingdom won the 2011 Derby in his main-track debut, but this colt isn’t close to his class.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Like many in this speed-laden field, he has early foot but never passed another horse. Dominated a weak Wood Memorial wire to wire, which won’t happen Saturday. Rodriguez is a talented colt who will win more graded stakes, but the pace scenario works against him.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Here’s yet another front-runner. American Promise, a huge Colt, has a terrific distance pedigree (by Justify out of a Tapit mare), and he’s improving at the right time for old master Lukas. Earned a big figure in a breakthrough romp in the weak Virginia Derby at speed-favoring Colonial Downs. Training impressively since then. Negatives: Massive class jump and 0-for-2, beaten 19½ lengths, in graded stakes.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Forever Young’s near-miss (beaten two noses) last year served notice that Japanese shippers deserve respect in the Derby. Pacesetter Admire Daytona lasted by a nose in the UAE Derby, whose runners, including Forever Young, are 0-for-20 in the Run for the Roses. This year’s UAE Derby runner-up, Heart of Honor, is 0-for-2 in stakes, and the consensus is this year’s field wasn’t anything special.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Although he beat Admire Daytona by only a nose at a mile, Luxor Café is rated significantly higher by international handicappers. Favored in all six of his races, so Japanese bettors like him. Stalker’s last race was a career best, drawing off by five lengths in a 1 1/8-mile stakes. It’s hard to judge what he beat, and the buzz isn’t near what it was for Forever Young. Bet a few dollars to win and place as a saver.
Betting Verdict: Use Underneath
Deserving favorite’s post should let him draft and save ground behind all the speed from inside. “He’s gonna be tough,” said Bob Baffert, who loved his gritty Santa Anita Derby win. “He had all the trouble last time and just put his head down and came running.” Impeccable stamina pedigree (by Curlin out of an Uncle Mo mare) says 1¼ miles will suit him fine. Journalism is the horse to beat.
Betting Verdict: The Pick
Late surge won a slow Blue Grass Stakes by a nose, and he’s training sharply – 59.20 breeze with a smoking final furlong of 11.20. The post looks advantageous for Burnham Square, along with a likely strong pace. Stalker/closer should be in the mix late to give Hernandez an outside chance at back-to-back Derby upsets.
Betting Verdict: Win Contender
Lightly raced (three starts), same as 2023 Derby hero Mage. Grande showed quality when overcoming trouble for a distant second in the Wood Memorial. Curlin colt will get 10 furlongs and is under the radar for Hall of Fame connections.
Betting Verdict: Use Underneath.
Like Final Gambit, Flying Mohawk has never raced on dirt. After finishing far back Saturday he’ll go back to the turf, where he’s shown promise and may have a future.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Like many in the field, East Avenue is at his best on an uncontested lead, but he’s never passed a rival. Blew a length lead and lost Blue Grass Stakes by a nose in a slow (13.44 second) final furlong, which doesn’t augur well for staying 1¼ miles.
Betting Verdict: Toss
He’s 0-for-7, and maidens don’t win the Derby (0-for-12 since 1937). Publisher ran a career high when second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby. His best-case scenario is plodding up for fourth or fifth to inflate the superfecta.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Crushed the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby after rallying from far back behind a quick pace. That’s the projected race shape of Derby 151, and Tiztastic’s pedigree (by Tiz the Law out of a Tapit mare) says distance. Price is juicy, so he’s worth playing across the board and in exotics.
Betting Verdict: Use Underneath
Lost five in a row by a total of 48¾ lengths. Render Judgement showed improved early speed in his last two (second in Virginia Derby, fifth in Blue Grass), but is over his head here.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Here’s the sentimental favorite with the folksy, 72-year-old trainer from Louisiana making his Derby debut. Briley said Coal Battle wasn’t fully cranked for the Arkansas Derby, where he faded to a distant third after a premature move. Speed figs are unimpressive, and he'll be overbet due to his backstory.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Every Derby has a wise-guy horse, and here Sandman is. Deep Closer ran a career top in winning the Arkansas Derby, aided by hot fractions. That field was much weaker than the Derby’s, with maiden Publisher finishing second. The morning line feels lower than it should be. Is he good enough to go from last to first? Big negative: 0-for-3, beaten 26 1/2 lengths, last year at Churchill.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Post 18 won’t help this midpack stalker who may be hung wide into the first turn, never a plus. Sovereignty is a strong finisher and will have to deal with a lot of traffic. Plus: Dominated 2-year-old stakes in only race at Churchill. Minuses: So-so speed figures, and 5-1 odds feel like an underlay.
Betting Verdict: Use Underneath
Chunk of Gold is 0-for-2 on dirt, seconds in the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby. Light on speed figures and has a bad post. Looks like a classic case of too much, too soon with a first-time Derby trainer.
Betting Verdict: Toss
The need-to-lead type is marooned in post-20 and will lose a lot of ground trying to outrun all the other speed in the cavalry charge to the turn. Owen Almighty, a gifted sprinter/miler, is destined to be a pace casualty; he should have gone in the Pat Day Mile earlier in the card.
Betting Verdict: Toss
Gifted colt needs one defection to give Puca, Mage’s dam, a chance for her second Derby winner. Solid second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby says he belongs. Prat will jump off longshot Neoequos if Baeza gets in. If so, he could be a factor despite the post.
For those who bet on horse racing ...
