Aidan O'Brien is the world's best trainer for two reasons: an endless supply of royally bred horses and relentless attention to detail. Before a race, the meticulous Irishman reminds his jockeys of the ins and outs of Plan A, then Plan B, and maybe even Plan C.
Yet it can be nearly impossible to control what happens when the gates open, and O'Brien was helpless on Aug. 19 when chaos ruled the Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) at York. It was billed as the race of the summer, a confrontation between Ombudsman and O'Brien's Constitution River, and it turned out to be anything but.
O'Brien had entered Action as a pacemaker for Constitution River, but Action started slowly and never made the lead. O'Brien had expected Devil's Advocate to be a pacemaker for odds-on favorite Ombudsman, but that was never the plan of trainer John Gosden. As a result, Constitution River was forced to accelerate too soon, which dulled his late kick, and Ombudsman never got involved. That opened the door for two longshots, and 10-1 Item nailed 14-1 Almaqam in the final strides, with Constitution River a fading third and Ombudsman fourth.
"It was just a bit of a mess," O'Brien said. "Everything that could have went wrong, went wrong. But we thought that considering everything, Constitution River ran a very good race."
O'Brien is hopeful that the rematch of Constitution River, Item and Almaqam plays out very differently Saturday in the 1 1/4-mile, $1.452 million Irish Champion Stakes (G1). Its 51st running is a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) on Oct. 31 at Keeneland. In 2023, O'Brien's colt Auguste Rodin became the fourth to sweep both races, joining Daylami (1999), Fantastic Light (2001) and High Chaparral (2003).
The Champion Stakes is one of five Group races on Saturday at Leopardstown in the Irish Champions Festival, which continues Sunday with five more Group events at the Curragh.
"Everything leads to this weekend," O'Brien said. "This has turned into a seriously important weekend all over the world. We try to train them to peak for it."
For those who like to bet on racing, here's an analysis of the Irish Champion Stakes field from the rail out, with trainer and odds in parentheses:
Just missed when caught late in a second-place finish in the Juddmonte International. The 5-year-old has four wins in 14 races, going 1-for-6 in Group 1s. Prefers give in the ground.
Comes in off a July 26 Group 1 win in the Grosser Dallmyr-Preis in Germany, breaking a seven-race losing streak and making him 2-for-7 at the top level. The Champion field is much tougher than the one he beat in Munich.
Yes, you might get 50-1 odds on a front-running colt who swept the Epsom Derby (G1) and Irish Derby (G1) last year. Only O'Brien could have a dual-classic winner to use as a pacemaker. He's lost his way and dropped six of his last seven starts.
Group 3 winner is on a three-race streak since starting his career 0-for-4. Never faced a field this tough and appears to be in over his head.
American horseplayers saw him win the Nashville Derby (G3) last year at Kentucky Downs. Took a Group 3 last time out at Deauville after finishing a close-up third behind Hotazhell in the Grosser Dallmyr-Preis. Only 4-for-17 lifetime and was 12th last year in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Doesn't fit with this bunch.
Dominated the 10-furlong Royal Whip (G3) at the Curragh for his first stakes victory in eight tries. Trainer is Aidan O'Brien's son, and owner Ana O'Brien is Donnacha's sister. "That was just what we wanted," Donnacha said. "He quickened up nicely, and I thought he was quite impressive. He has a turn of foot, which I think will suit Leopardstown." Did finish second by three lengths to Constitution River in the Eclipse Stakes, his second Group 1 runner-up finish.
Ran creditably despite being pace-compromised when third in the Juddmonte, which ended a five-race winning streak. That was only his second loss in seven career starts, and he's 3-for-4 at 10 furlongs. O'Brien will have him trained to the minute, and this standout 3-year-old should bounce back.
Throw out his sixth-place dud in the Juddmonte, when he ended up on the lead, where he's not comfortable. Group 3 winner has class, with a Group 1 win last year at 2 and a second and a third at the top level this year.
This 3-year-old's only defeat in five starts was a ninth-place flop on a boggy course in the Epsom Derby (G1). That's a throwout, because so many outstanding horses have had legitimate excuses for losing on unsuitable footing on the quirky Epsom Downs course.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
