Juddmonte International Odds: Ombudsman, Constitution River Face-Off

Juddmonte International Odds: Ombudsman, Constitution River Face-Off

England is the land of tradition, and its Triple Crown races go way back. The 2,000 Guineas (G1) was instituted in 1809, 29 years after the inaugural Epsom Derby (G1) and 33 years after the St Leger (G1). But not every important British race dates to the late 18th or early 19th century.

York Racecourse's 1 5/16-mile Juddmonte International (G1) didn't get started until 1972, when it was called the Benson and Hedges Gold Cup, and it made an immediate impact. In a confrontation of titans, Epsom Derby hero Roberto led throughout to win by three lengths and hand 15-for-15 Brigadier Gerard his only defeat in 18 career races.

The centerpiece of York's four-day Ebor Festival became known as the Juddmonte International in 1989, and on Wednesday (10:35 a.m. ET) it will be staged for the 55th time. The ancient course known as ‘the Ascot of the North’ will showcase another battle of superstars, with even-money Ombudsman, the defending champion, facing the challenge of trainer Aidan O'Brien's 5-for-6 Constitution River, the 7-4 second choice in the early line.

“York is the place where everybody wants to be at this time of the year,” O'Brien said.

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Breeders’ Cup “Win, and You’re In’’ to the Classic

The $2.03 million Juddmonte is a "Win and You're In" race that offers an automatic spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) on Oct. 31 at Keeneland.  Ombudsman and Constitution River head a field of 10 in which Item (6-1) is the only other runner with single-digit odds. They will be trying to join a list of distinguished winners that include Dahlia, Giant's Causeway, Sea the Stars, and Frankel.

Ombudsman, a 5-year-old by Night of Thunder, is trained by the father-son team of John and Thady Gosden. He's 9-for-12 with six graded-stakes wins and has never been worse than second. He's 3-for-3 this year and is rated one of the world's top older horses. He prepped for the Juddmonte with a strong mile workout on Aug. 12 under regular rider William Buick.

“He had a normal, solid piece of work, which is just what we wanted before York,” John Gosden told racingpost.com. “He's a pro now and doesn't want to do anything flashy -- not that we wanted it.”

O'Brien has six Juddmonte victories, two more than Gosden, and brings in Constitution River on a five-race winning streak. The French-bred son of Wootton Bassett hasn't lost since running second in his debut last year. His latest performance, in the Eclipse Stakes (G1) at Sandown, dazzled O'Brien and jockey Ryan Moore. Constitution River was boxed in along the rail in the stretch before getting outside and cruising to a three-length win.        

O'Brien described himself as “over the moon. Everything he's done has been so special all the way.” He added that Moore, one of the world's top jockeys for decades, told him “he doesn't think he's ever ridden a better horse.” On facing Ombudsman, O'Brien said, "That will be the acid test. We're looking forward to the meeting.”

Does Item (6-1) Have a Chance for an Upset?

On paper, the only other horse who appears to have a chance against the top two is Item, who's 4-for-5 overall and a two-time Group 2 winner.  His only bad race was a ninth-place finish on very soft turf in the Epsom Derby.

Bar Epsom, where the ground was not to his liking, he’s got a flawless record,” trainer Andrew Balding said. “We’re in there with the best older horse in Europe and probably the best 3-year-old in Europe. It’s not an easy task.”

Two years ago, the Juddmonte, won by O'Brien's City of Troy, was voted the world's best race of 2024.  Wednesday's renewal could approach that level.

“It's what the sport is all about, seeing horses like that take each other on,” O'Brien said. “It's going to be very interesting.”

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Juddmonte Betting Analysis

It's never easy for a 3-year-old to defeat an older horse, especially one who's rated among the world's best. But the brilliant Constitution River appears to have room to improve, which he must do to beat Ombudsman. Getting a seven-pound weight break from the favorite should help.

The Picks: 1 Constitution River, 2 Ombudsman, 3 Item

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