In the weeks leading up to the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 3, the US Racing handicappers will lay out $100 worth of betting options on selected races.
Admittedly, we’ve been fans since he took New York by storm last summer-fall with Grade 1 victories in the Hopeful at Saratoga and Champagne at Aqueduct. He disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) to close out the campaign.
He returned with a rallying second to the front-running Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He should move forward from that effort again facing that rival who already has three starts on the year.
Chancer McPatrick stretches out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, and the added distance should play right into his closing style.
One schedule note: The Blue Grass has been rescheduled for Tuesday, April 8, due to a forecast of severe thunderstorms, flooding, and high winds in central Kentucky.
If contested on schedule, the track will likely be muddy or sloppy. None of the runners have faced a wet track, which is another handicapping variable.
He is as honest as they come, a front-runner who will be in the hunt right from the start.
Here comes the key question: stamina at the distance. He turned in a career-best effort in winning the Tampa Bay Derby, but that was 1 1/16 miles. A “bounce,” a regression after a superlative race, could also be in the offing.
The suspicion remains that he might have distance limitations. The races only get longer from here with the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby (G1) on the horizon. We get some clues here as to his ability to stay the course.
On the plus side, Owen Almighty should already have four wins except for an unfortunate disqualification in Tampa’s Pasco Stakes. The one thing we can count on is that he’ll give us all he’s got.
“Distance is always a concern,” said his trainer, Brian Lynch. “I think he will relish a possible off track, and that is the thing that might be in his favor.”
It’s been a mixed bag for trainer Todd Pletcher’s 3-year-olds so far, and this might be his best, and last, shot to qualify a horse for the Kentucky Derby.
River Thames stepped up in this stakes debut last time out, the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park, to suffer a neck loss to Derby-bound Sovereignty.
Irad Ortiz, Jr., who had been Owen Almighty's regular rider, opted to take this mount instead. His brother Jose will be Owen Almighty’s pilot.
From the rail, Irad will have plenty of motivation to prove he made the right decision.
Could be the “redemption candidate” of the field following a fourth-place finish as the 9-5 favorite in the Fountain of Youth.
He did win Gulfstream’s Holy Bull (G3) in the prior effort, so a rebound is not out of the question.
Total Investment: $96
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