The "Road to the Kentucky Derby" officially ignites this weekend at Fair Grounds Race Course as a wide-open field of juveniles gathers for the fifth running of the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes. This 1 1/16-mile contest serves as the premier local kickoff for New Orleans’ Derby prep series, offering 21 qualifying points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale to the top five finishers. With a mix of late-blooming routers and battle-tested stakes veterans, the 2025 edition promises significant value for those looking to bet on Gun Runner Stakes contenders. Historically, this race has served as a springboard for elite talent like Epicenter, and this year’s crop seems equally capable of producing a Triple Crown threat.
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We observe a fascinating tactical matchup in this year’s field, where speed figures and pedigree suggest a contested early pace. The " Gun Runner Stakes" odds reflect the uncertainty of two-year-olds stretching out to two turns for the first time. Many of these runners recently broke their maidens at Churchill Downs or Indiana, showing high ceilings but limited experience against winners. When engaging in " Gun Runner Stakes" betting, horseplayers must decide if they prefer the established class of a stakes winner like Crown the Buckeye or the raw potential of "Rising Stars" like Liberty National.
LBD Stable’s homebred Mesquite starts the analysis from the inner-most post, a position that often dictates the trip in New Orleans. Trained by the surging Cherie DeVaux, this son of Union Rags brings a 4.45 rating into the fray. His 2025 campaign began with a quiet sixth-place finish at Keeneland, but he exploded when moved to two turns at Churchill Downs on November 7. He displayed a powerful turn of foot that afternoon, moving from last to first to win going away.
Trainer Cherie DeVaux has enjoyed a career year in 2025, maintaining a 19% win rate and over $8 million in earnings. By securing Jose L. Ortiz, DeVaux ensures her colt has an elite pilot who knows how to navigate the Fair Grounds rail. Ortiz actually chose this mount over others in the field, which is a massive signal for " Gun Runner Stakes" betting enthusiasts. Mesquite holds morning-line odds of 9-2, making him a prime candidate to sit back and pounce late if the early leaders tire.
Steve Asmussen, North America’s all-time winningest trainer, sends out Chip Honcho from post two. This son of Connect possesses high tactical speed, as evidenced by his gate-to-wire maiden victory at Churchill Downs on November 20. He impressively covered the mile that day, earning a 113 rating—one of the highest in the field. Asmussen adds blinkers for this start, a move designed to keep the colt focused as he tackles the extra sixteenth of a mile.
Paco Lopez takes the reins, a jockey renowned for his aggressive "win-at-all-costs" style on the lead. Chip Honcho sits at 9-2 in the " Gun Runner Stakes" odds, and he will likely be the horse everyone has to catch. His 2025 performance record shows a steady upward trajectory, and his recent five-furlong bullet workout at Fair Grounds (1:01.20) suggests he has acclimated perfectly to the New Orleans surface.
Perhaps the most talked-about horse in the entries is Liberty National, a $525,000 yearling purchase by Maxfield. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, the man behind 2024 Derby hero Mystik Dan, Liberty National earned "TDN Rising Star" status after a dominant 4 1/2-length win at Churchill Downs on November 29. He posted a 103 rating in that effort, visually appearing like a horse that wants even more distance.
McPeek has high praise for this colt, describing him as having an "aircraft carrier body type." With Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons, the connections that won the Derby and Oaks in 2024 are back together. Liberty National is the morning-line favorite at 7-2, and many fans will bet on Gun Runner Stakes pools centered around him. His pedigree is regal, tracing to the families of Tiznow and Paynter, suggesting the 1 1/16-mile distance is just the beginning of his journey.
Brad Cox, who has dominated the Fair Grounds circuit for years, enters the first of his three contenders with Quality Mischief. This son of Into Mischief comes off a maiden win at Horseshoe Indianapolis on October 29. While his 93 rating is respectable, he faces a significant class hike here. However, underestimating a Cox-trained Into Mischief runner in New Orleans is often a recipe for disaster.
Marcelino Pedroza Jr. gets the call at 10-1 odds. Quality Mischief showed he could handle a muddy track in Indiana, and his recent workouts at Fair Grounds, including a best-of-50 four-furlong move (49.00), indicate he is ready for a career-best effort. For those looking for a long shot in " Gun Runner Stakes" betting, this colt provides an intriguing "upside" profile.
In a field full of "one-win" wonders, Crown the Buckeye stands out as the only horse with multiple victories. Trained by Mike Maker, this son of Yaupon won the Joshua Radosevich Memorial Stakes earlier this year. He has been busy in 2025, showing versatility and toughness. Maker is a master at finding the right spots for his horses, and bringing this Ohio-bred to a Grade 1 prep shows significant confidence.
Jareth Loveberry, a local favorite at Fair Grounds, takes the mount at 5-1. Crown the Buckeye lacks the flashy speed figures of the Churchill Downs shippers (0.00 official rating in the recent chart), but his experience in high-pressure stakes situations is invaluable. He may not be the fastest, but he is undoubtedly the most seasoned, and seasoned horses often find a way to hit the board when the " Gun Runner Stakes" odds are at their most volatile.
It is only fitting that a son of the race's namesake, Gun Runner, enters the starting gate. Arabia Wild, also trained by Brad Cox, broke his maiden at Fair Grounds on November 22. Winning over the track is a significant advantage in New Orleans, where the long stretch can exhaust horses unfamiliar with the local terrain. Axel Concepcion, the Eclipse Award-winning apprentice, retains the mount.
Arabia Wild is listed at 8-1, a price that seems generous for a horse with his pedigree and trainer. His win was visually impressive, showing he could sit just off the pace and kick clear. If you plan to bet on Gun Runner Stakes longshots, Arabia Wild offers the perfect blend of local form and elite sire power.
Kenny McPeek’s second entry, Very Connected, is the highest-rated horse in the field with a 7.09 rating. Unlike his stablemate, he already has graded stakes experience, having finished fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. That race was a "who's who" of top juveniles, and Very Connected held his own despite a wide trip.
Colby J. Hernandez will ride the Connect colt at 9-1. This horse is already being pointed toward the 2026 Louisiana Derby, suggesting the barn views him as a true distance horse. He may find the 1 1/16 miles a bit short for his best work, but his class should carry him deep into the stretch. His 2025 performances show he can compete at the highest level, making him a "must-use" in all " Gun Runner Stakes" betting tickets.
Rounding out the field is Mister Punch, the third entry for Brad Cox. This Into Mischief colt has had an interesting path, starting on turf at Kentucky Downs before switching to dirt and a $100,000 maiden claiming tag at Churchill Downs. He won that race by nearly five lengths, earning a 100 rating and convincing Cox that he belonged in stakes company.
Luis Saez, one of the best gate riders in the world, flies in for the mount. At 6-1, Mister Punch is a dangerous "sneaky" horse. He improved his speed figure by over 30 points in his last start, and if he continues that progression, he could easily upset the favorites. His 2025 form suggests he is a late bloomer who is finally figuring out the racing game.
When we look at the pace projection, Chip Honcho and Mister Punch appear the most likely to vie for the early lead. This could set things up perfectly for a closer like Mesquite or a mid-pack stalker like Liberty National. The long Fair Grounds stretch favors horses that can sustain a run rather than those with a short, sharp burst. When analyzing " Gun Runner Stakes" odds, look for horses that have shown they can finish their races strongly at a mile or more.
For " Gun Runner Stakes" betting, an exacta box featuring Mesquite and Liberty National seems like the logical "chalky" play, but the value lies in the Brad Cox trio. Arabia Wild and Mister Punch are both capable of winning this race at much higher prices than the favorites. If you are looking to bet on Gun Runner Stakes exotics, don't ignore the class of Very Connected, who might be the most talented horse in the long run.
Fair Grounds is a "horses for courses" track, and the same can be said for trainers. Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen have traded the training title in New Orleans for nearly a decade. Their horses are always meticulously prepared for the "Road to the Derby." Kenny McPeek has also found great success here, using the New Orleans winter to develop his Triple Crown hopefuls.
Jockey Jose Ortiz and Brian Hernandez Jr. are both veterans of the Kentucky Derby, and their presence in the Gun Runner Stakes elevates the level of competition. A well-timed ride is often the difference between winning and losing at Fair Grounds, as the wind and track consistency can change throughout the day. Paying attention to these professional nuances will significantly improve your " Gun Runner Stakes" betting results.
The 2025 field is loaded with "Sire of Sires" potential. Into Mischief and Gun Runner are the titans of the industry, and having multiple representatives from both shows the quality of this race. Maxfield, the sire of Liberty National, is a son of Street Sense who excelled at Fair Grounds during his own racing career. This suggests his offspring will take a liking to the New Orleans dirt.
The " Gun Runner Stakes" odds often lean toward these high-profile pedigrees, but don't overlook the Connect runners. Connect has proven he can produce hardy, distance-loving horses like Chip Honcho and Very Connected. Pedigree is the foundation of Derby dreams, and the Gun Runner Stakes is the first true test of whether these youngsters can live up to their bloodlines.
In the week leading up to the race, many of these contenders have been sighted on the Fair Grounds main track. Liberty National put in a steady five-furlong breeze that caught the eye of many clockers. Mesquite has also looked sharp, showing high energy in his morning gallops. These final preparations are the last pieces of the puzzle for " Gun Runner Stakes" betting fans.
A horse's physical appearance in the paddock will also be crucial. We look for a calm demeanor and a "dappled" coat, indicating peak fitness. With 10 points on the line for the winner, the intensity in the Fair Grounds barn area is palpable. Everyone wants to start 2026 with a secured spot on the leaderboard for the First Saturday in May.
As we approach post time, the buzz surrounding the 2025 Gun Runner Stakes continues to grow. Whether you prefer the raw speed of Chip Honcho, the elite pedigree of Liberty National, or the tactical advantage of Mesquite, there is a path to profit in this race. The Fair Grounds "Road to the Derby" has produced legends, and Saturday's winner will take the first step toward immortality.
Don't miss out on the action—get your bets in early and watch the future stars of the turf collide in New Orleans. The " Gun Runner Stakes" odds are ripe for the taking, and the 2025 edition is set to be one for the history books.
The 2025 Gun Runner Stakes isn't just a horse race; it’s a high-stakes chess match where the next great American champion might finally reveal himself. Between the tactical brilliance of Brad Cox and the raw horsepower of Liberty National, the value in this field is too good to pass up. Whether you are a seasoned handicapper or a newcomer looking for a winner, there has never been a better time to bet on Gun Runner Stakes action and witness the birth of a legend.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
