The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on Friday is coming up short with only eight colts set to contest the prestigious race.
Situations and circumstances combined to limit the field. Eight runners equal the smallest field in Juvenile history, a dubious mark set in 1997, 2004, and 2019.
Why so few entrants for such an important race? The presence of Ted Noffey, the imposing undefeated 4-5 favorite, certainly served as a damper.
Then there are the inevitable injuries and illnesses. Desert Gate, trained by Bob Baffert, was the most recent defection. The promising colt, second by narrow margins in Grade 1 races in the last two outings, is sidelined with an infection.
“He’s got an infection on his hock,” Baffert said. “We had to treat it with antibiotics. He is going to be OK, but he is not going to run.”
The most interesting absence is Napoleon Solo, the dominant winner of the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct earlier this month, who earned a Breeders’ Cup berth with the victory.
Trainer Chad Summers, in consultation with owner Al Gold, opted to call it a season after the Champagne and wait for next season’s 3-year-old stakes on the Road to the Triple Crown.
“I think he showed he has a chance to be a special horse, and we want to give him the opportunity,” Summers said.
That leaves us with a small turnout for the Juvenile, a race that stamps the winner as the long-range favorite for the Kentucky Derby (G1) next May. The Juvenile winner usually also takes home the Eclipse Award as divisional champion in the end-of-year voting.
That’s a lot of prestige and pressure. It looks like both will fall to Ted Noffey.
The gray colt trained by Todd Pletcher has been flawless in three starts, beginning with a solid win in his maiden debut at 6 ½ furlongs at Saratoga. From there, Ted Noffey stepped up to deliver a rousing 8 ½ length victory in Saratoga’s Hopeful Stakes (G1) at 7 furlongs.
His final tuneup was another sharp score in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland at this same 1 1/16 miles distance.
“It was what we were hoping for, what we were expecting,” Pletcher said after the race. “You always want to see it.”
Seeing is indeed believing. With a stellar resume, Ted Noffey figures to be a very short-price against a potentially overmatched field.
The main competition should come from Brant, the 5-2 second choice, from the Baffert barn.
The colt is unbeaten in two races, including the Del Mar Futurity (G1).
He still has the pass the distance challenge, never having ventured beyond 7 furlongs.
Beyond the top two, we quickly move into longshot territory.
Blackout Time (5-1) was second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity. A nice effort, but he was clearly no match for the winner.
Intrepido pulled an 8-1 upset in the American Pharoah (G1), defeating Desert Gate. He must build on that effort to challenge here and reward the confidence of the owners who paid a $100,000 fee to supplement. His morning line price is 8-1.
Litmus Test (15-1), the second Baffert entrant, figures to be on or close to the pace. He hasn’t shown the finishing stamina to win at this level.
Comport (30-1) failed to hold on in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. It’s hard to see him faring better here.
Mr. A.P. (30-1) had a $150,000 claim in his debut, with races like this in mind by his owners. This is too ambitious.
Civil Liberty (30-1) is winless in the three tries. This is a challenging spot to land a maiden victory.
Consider this: Pletcher and Baffert have combined to win the last four Juveniles, and eight of the previous 15.
Don’t give yourself eye strain looking beyond those two. That leads us to: step out with a Ted Noffey-Brant $50 exacta box. Add in Intrepido to round out your trifecta.
The field for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
