Ballston Spa Odds: Can a 10-1 Longshot Pull Off an Upset? Picks

Ballston Spa Odds: Can a 10-1 Longshot Pull Off an Upset? Picks

When English trainer Stuart Williams says it’s an “ambitious plan” to bring his filly Sunlit Uplands to America for Saturday’s $300,000 Ballston Spa Stakes (G2) at Saratoga, he isn’t kidding.

The 4-year-old Ireland-bred is a 10-1 longshot in a field of eight in a race dominated by eight-time winning trainer Chad Brown, who sends out three this time in the 1 1/16-mile turf test for fillies and mares 3 and up.

“It's an ambitious plan, but we thought it was the way to go with this filly,” Williams said. “It's encouraging that the European runners have been doing so well. Some of them are our neighbors, so we're hopeful.”

Success has been sweet for European runners at the Spa this summer, as Williams, based in Newmarket and training for more than 30 years, noted.

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Euro success at the Spa

Ireland-bred Kensington Lane won the Belmont Oaks (G1) for trainer Donnacha O’Brien, England-bred Title Role won the Belmont Derby (G1) for Simon and Ed Crisford, and England-bred Glacius won the Saratoga Derby (G1) for Hugo Palmer. Also, George Boughey-trained Ireland-bred Survie won the Glens Falls Stakes (G3) and the Christophe Clement Turf Stakes (G1), a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In’’ race for the BC Turf on Oct. 31 at Keeneland.

Sunlit Uplands is no slouch. She comes into the race after becoming acclimated to Saratoga following a two-day journey from Europe. In her previous outing, she won the Hamburger Stuten Meile (G3) in Germany on July 5, and this will be the fifth country Sunlit Uplands has competed in. A resume of four wins and three seconds in 11 starts seems solid. A stalking or just off-the-lead style seems to be her strength, and a plus is gaining Hall of Famer John Velazquez to guide her over a track he knows well.

“She's taken the trip well. She's traveled a bit around Europe, so we were hopeful she’d take to traveling there. We're very happy with her,” Williams said.

“She's a big, strong filly.  She'd be well over 16 hands. Anything but rattling quick, I think, would be suitable for her. She goes on good-fast ground; she'll go on good ground; she'd go with a bit of ease in the ground. I just wouldn't want it very, very wet or very, very fast if we had a choice.”

Chad Brown Goes for Ninth Ballston Spa Win with Three Entries

The competition is tough, starting with Brown’s trio: 7-5 favorite Segesta, 8-1 Grayosh and 15-1 Play With Fire.

Also entered are 8-1 Ozara for trainer Miguel Clement; 5-1 Deep Satin for Cherie DeVaux; 3-1 And One More Time for Mark Casse; and Long Ago for William Morey.

Entered for the main track only is Scalable for trainer Todd Pletcher, a 5-year-old Speightstown mare who is listed at 4-5.

The weather forecast for Saturday calls for temperatures in the high 70s and a 2% chance of 6:07 p.m. ET.

Segesta Seems Ready for Winner’s Circle

Meanwhile, Brown is after a record-extending ninth Ballston Spa victory, having won eight from 2012-2025.

Segesta, a Juddmonte homebred, looms large with five straight top-3 finishes in Grade 1s, including Matriarch Stakes at the end of 2025 and the Jenny Wiley Stakes in April. She ran third to Classic Q in the Just a Game Stakes on June 6 and second to Kathynmarissa in the Diana Stakes, both at Saratoga. Look for her to be on the lead or just off the leaders.

Grayosh has won two of his last three, including the Matchmaker Stakes (G3) on July 18 at Monmouth Park. The 5-year-old mare went eight races between victories, winning the 2024 Lake Placid Stakes (G3) at the Spa and then winning again in April in a dead heat with Being Betty in an optional claimer.

Play With Fire, previously trained by Brendan Walsh, is 0-for-4 under Brown, but finished second three times. Last out, the 4-year-old filly was beaten a neck by Queen of Hawaii in an optional claimer on July 9 at the Spa.

Ozara, sixth in the Diana Stakes (G1) in her last race, won the 2025 Ballston Spa under Dylan Davis, who will be back aboard the 5-year-old mare for trainer Miguel Clement.

And One More Time, with Javier Castellano aboard, enters from a gate-to-wire effort in the 1-mile De La Rose Stakes on July 17. In 2024, she defeated well-regarded stablemate Nitrogen in the Natalma Stakes (G1).

Post time for the Ballston Spa, race 10, is 6:07 p.m. ET, and precedes the $600,000 Alabama Stakes (G1) featuring 1-2 favorite Counting Stars.

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The Picks: 1 Segesta, 2 And One More Time, 3 Sunlit Uplands

The Field for the $300,000 Ballston Spa Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. Ozara (Dylan Davis, Miguel Clement), 8-1
  2. Sunlit Uplands (John Velazquez, Stuart Williams), 10-1
  3. Deep Satin (Jose Ortiz, Cherie DeVaux), 5-1
  4. Play With Fire (Manny Franco, Chad Brown), 15-1
  5. And One More Time (Javier Castellano, Mark Casse), 3-1
  6. Segesta (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown), 7-5
  7. Grayosh (Tyler Gaffalione, Chad Brown), 8-1
  8. Long Ago (Kendrick Carmouche, William Morey), 12-1

Also eligible (Main track only)

  • Scalable (TBD, Tod Pletcher), 4-5

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