It's important for horses and horse races to get off to a good start, and the first Arlington Million couldn't have turned out better. All-time great John Henry and The Bart hit the wire together, and after 1 1/4 miles on boggy ground, there was compelling drama after the finish.
Even after watching slow-motion replays, you couldn't tell whether John Henry had gotten his nose down first or whether The Bart had held off his desperate rally. Finally, it was determined that the 6-year-old gelding and jockey Bill Shoemaker had arrived just in time at Arlington Park on Aug. 30, 1981. A famous statue memorializes the moment.
The first thoroughbred race to offer a $1 million purse became a popular destination for American and international grass standouts. Over the years, it moved all over North America -- to Woodbine in Canada in 1988, and to Churchill Downs before landing at its current venue, Colonial Downs. It skipped a few years, being canceled in 1998 and 1999 and again in 2020 because of the pandemic.
The race with many lives will be staged Saturday again in New Kent, Virginia, where seven challengers will take on 5-2 morning-line favorite Burnham Square. For those who like to bet on racing, here's a horse-by-horse analysis from the rail out, with trainer, jockey and morning-line odds in parentheses:
Consistent colt (16-for-18 in the money, 6-for-6 on grass) is a solid closer going shorter against cheaper. Never been this far but won going 9 furlongs on synthetic. Won't win but could inflate the exotics.
Won the 1 1 /2-mile McKnight (G3) on grass, so distance isn't an issue. Also was a close fourth in the 1 3/8-mile McDiarmida (G2). Throw out his last, a bad-trip seventh going 1 1/16 miles, much shorter than he wants. Still, he's not fast enough to do much here.
Defending champ is only 1-for-5 since taking this race at 5-1 odds last summer. My gut feeling is it was the last hurrah for this 7-year-old, and off that win he might get more action than he deserves. Demand 6-1 odds if you want to play him.
Never underestimate a course specialist, and this guy loves Colonial Downs -- three wins, a second and a third in five starts. Closed powerfully but too late last time at Saratoga, zipping the final three-sixteenths in under 17 seconds. His Equibase Speed Figure matched his career top, and he was a close-up third in last year's Million. However, he's lost six consecutive graded stakes and never fulfilled the potential he flashed by starting his career 3-for-3, including a Grade 2 and Grade 3.
Class of the field has won three straight stakes, although he barely beat a weak group last time when he switched tactics by setting the pace. Following slow fractions, he blasted home the final three furlongs in 34 seconds while going 1 3/8 miles. Rallied to dominate his previous two races, a Grade 2 and a Grade 3, by a total of 14 1/2 lengths. The one to beat, and don't expect him to go off at 5-2.
Rarely runs a bad one and just missed against Spa-loving Deterministic last time in 1 3/16-mile Manhattan (G1) at Saratoga. Worth a win bet at 9-2 or so, but he's 0-for-2 at 1 1/4 miles. Burnham Square outran him by about four lengths last year in the 1 5/16-mile Nashville Derby (G3) at Kentucky Downs. Feels like 10 furlongs again will be too far.
Outran his 15-1 odds to be second last time, but it was his seventh straight loss. He doesn't class up with Burnham Square, Test Score or Integration, but with a good trip he could slip into third or fourth and inflate the exotics.
South American import won a Grade 1 going 1 1/4 miles last year in Chile, so he can handle the distance for Joseph, who's been on a roll (26% wins) all year. Won his last three against much weaker, so class is a major concern.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
