3 Best Bets to Win the 2025 Turf Mile

Key takeaways:

• Diego Velazquez (7-2) is the morning-line favorite, bringing elite European form and a style that should thrive over a firm mile turf course at Keeneland.
• Program Trading (9-2) is the domestic anchor. Speed figures, stable success on turf, plus tactical versatility make him a logical threat.
• Woodshauna (5-1) is the value play: strong European credentials, the kind of form that often pays off in American mile turf stakes when the pace gets hot.

The Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) at 1 mile on turf is one of Keeneland’s marquee autumn events, drawing international challengers and top US turf horses. With a $1,250,000 purse and a slate of accomplished contenders, the 2025 edition (set for Saturday, October 4) is shaping up to be a tactical puzzle with speed, stamina, and trip all in balance.

The twelve-horse field blends European raiders with American turf talent, a matchup that often forces you to choose between class and local form.

Given the likely scenario, a firm turf course, moderate to fast early fractions (thanks to several speed or pace-inclined horses), and a deep closers’ contingent, these are the three horses I believe offer the best chance to win.

1. Diego Velazquez (2025 Turf Mile odds: 7-2)

Diego Velazquez enters as the horse to beat. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, ridden by Frankie Dettori (a compelling booking, especially as Dettori chases his first North American win aboard an O’Brien runner), he arrives with a resume that few in this field can match.

He’s coming off a huge success in the Prix Jacques le Marois (G1) in France, and his reputation for handling firm turf is well-suited to Keeneland’s conditions. His turn of foot is sharp, and unlike pure “closers,” he often settles behind the pace and unleashes a decisive late move.

Why he fits

• He has top-class form against international competition.
• His running style is well-suited to a mile turf event with a strong early pace.
• On paper, he’s the most likely to neutralize the pace battle and still have something left late.

Risk factors

• Trip trouble: in a large field with serious speed, traffic can kill even the best.
• Transition to American racing: though O’Brien runners often adapt, there’s always the chance the surface, draw, or pace scenario doesn’t suit perfectly.
• If a horse with big late speed (or a closer who nursed through slower fractions) peels off late, he might be vulnerable.

Still, if everything breaks decently (not too much traffic, not a meltdown pace), Diego Velazquez is the top pick.

2. Program Trading (2025 Turf Mile odds: 9-2)

While European raiders often steal headlines, one of the safest domestic options is Program Trading, trained by turf specialist Chad C. Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat.

He just missed in the Bernard Baruch Stakes, posting a strong figure, and Brown has a history of success in turf stakes at Keeneland. Prat is a rider capable of finding the right spot in a tactical mile, neither too aggressive nor too patient.

Why he fits

• Consistent speed figures versus strong fields.
• Tactical flexibility: he can press or sit mid-pack depending on how the speed unfolds.
• Familiarity: the Brown / Prat combination is not new to these kinds of races.

Questions to watch

• Can he outrun the Europeans’ late kicks?
• Will he get a clean trip in the stretch?
• If the early pace is slower (leading jockeys bide their time), will he have enough acceleration to respond?

As a “safe” option, Program Trading gives a strong balance of upside and reliability.

3. Woodshauna (2025 Turf Mile odds: 5-1)

If you want the value play that could surprise, Woodshauna is the pick. French–based, with strong form in Europe, she arrives as a legitimate threat.

Her recent performances in top-level European turf sprints and mile events suggest she handles firm ground and can finish with authority. She may not have the class of Diego Velazquez, but she has the upside, especially if the pace is hot and the front-runners tire.

Why she’s interesting

• She may offer more value relative to the favorites.
• European form often translates well on firm American turf, especially in mile races.
• If the leaders go out fast, she might be in a position to pounce late.

Potential drawbacks

• She may be vulnerable if the pace is too slow (favoring tactical speed horses).
• She must sustain her run against deeper closers.
• She must overcome trip and traffic issues, especially against a strong crowd of competitors.

If you want a “sleeper” in your exotic tickets, Woodshauna is your candidate.

The Verdict & Betting Strategy

This edition of the Turf Mile looks like a three-way clash between European excellence (Diego Velazquez), domestic consistency (Program Trading), and value upside (Woodshauna). Expect a lively pace up front-horses like Donegal Momentum or Epic Ride may push the early fractions, setting up a classic “closers’ day.”

Top pick: Diego Velazquez — best raw form, strong tactical profile, and class edge.
Second choice: Program Trading — reliable, local, and versatile.
Value play: Woodshauna — less obvious, but the kind of horse that often rewards daring tickets.

In wagers: use Diego Velazquez on top in win bets or multi-race sequences; include Program Trading as a strong alternative in exactas/trifectas; and don’t ignore Woodshauna in your exotic tickets. The pace scenario, break, trip, and turf condition will be pivotal, so play smart and expect some surprises.

US Racing Team

The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.