The Road to the Roses is just starting to heat up, but the 2026 Kentucky Derby picture already has a clear focal point. A handful of 2-year-olds are separating from the pack on the early Kentucky Derby leaderboard, and one name is doing more than just showing up in the points table.
Ted Noffey has stepped forward as the early benchmark for everyone else to chase, combining a flawless juvenile résumé with a classic-friendly pedigree and powerful connections. For anyone already thinking about 2026 Kentucky Derby early favorites, Kentucky Derby odds, or long-range Kentucky Derby betting strategies, this is the time to identify which young runners have the right profile to stay relevant all the way to the first Saturday in May.
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As of late November, Ted Noffey sits on top of the 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 40 qualifying points, giving him a strong early cushion over the rest of the prospects aiming for Churchill Downs. That position is not a product of a soft schedule. He delivered a statement victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, drawing clear in the stretch to cap a perfect 2-year-old season and stamp himself as the likely Eclipse Award champion in the 2-year-old male division.
Ted Noffey has already shown that he is more than just a precocious speed type. He has won all four of his starts by a length or more, including three straight Grade 1 victories at distances up to a mile and a sixteenth. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he stalked the pace in a perfect pressing position, took over when asked by John Velazquez, and finished strongly enough to suggest that longer distances will not be a problem as a 3-year-old. For futures players and early Kentucky Derby odds watchers, that combination of tactical speed, professionalism, and finishing power is exactly what you want to see at this stage of the campaign.
The form is backed up by numbers. Ted Noffey earned a career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure for his Breeders’ Cup win, and his Beyer Speed Figures have been consistently strong in all three of his Grade 1 victories. Those figures put him near the top of the historical range for elite juveniles in the fall, which is why he is already a short price in early Kentucky Derby betting pools and has been quoted around single-digit odds in futures wagering.
What makes Ted Noffey especially dangerous is that his talent is supported by a classic-friendly profile on paper. He is a gray or roan colt by Into Mischief, North America’s leading sire for several seasons and the stallion behind recent Kentucky Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun, as well as multiple top-level runners at a mile and beyond. His dam, Streak of Luck, is a Grade 2-placed stakes winner who did her best work around a route of ground, adding further stamina and toughness to the genetic mix.
On the human side, Ted Noffey is in the hands of a team that knows how to manage high-profile Derby hopefuls. Spendthrift Farm campaigns him, Todd Pletcher trains him, and John Velazquez has been his regular rider. Pletcher has already built a Hall of Fame résumé around developing elite 2-year-olds into major 3-year-old contenders, and Velazquez brings the kind of big race experience that can make the difference in a 20-horse Derby field. When you combine that level of horsemanship with a colt that has never taken a backward step, you get a legitimate anchor for any discussion of 2026 Kentucky Derby early favorites.
The Kentucky Derby leaderboard is still in its infancy, but it already gives handicappers and bettors a rough outline of who is separating from the crowd. Behind Ted Noffey’s 40 points, the next tier includes Mr. A.P., Intrepido, Spice Runner, Napoleon Solo, and Incredibolt, all of whom have earned key points in early prep season races. Their current totals range from the low teens into double digits, which keeps them firmly in the qualifying conversation even before the higher value championship preps begin in late winter and early spring.
Further down the list, horses like Litmus Test, Brant, Universe, Comport, Desert Gate, Blackout Time, Talkin, and Very Connected have already put some points on the board and proven they belong in this early mix. Some of them chased Ted Noffey in races like the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and their efforts behind him give extra depth to his form. Others picked up their points in separate regional preps and could improve sharply as the distances increase. These are the names that offer value in Kentucky Derby odds at this stage, because their records are still developing, and a single breakout effort can transform their perception on the national stage.
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ted Noffey | Todd A. Pletcher | 40 |
| 2 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 19 |
| 3 | Mr. A.P. | Vladimir Cerin | 15 |
| 4 | Universe | Kenneth G. McPeek | 13 |
| 5 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 13 |
| 6 | Spice Runner | Steven M. Asmussen | 11 |
| 7 | Paladin | Chad C. Brown | 10 |
| 8 | Further Ado | Brad H. Cox | 10 |
| 9 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 10 |
| 10 | Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 10 |
| 11 | Brant | Bob Baffert | 9 |
| 12 | Renegade | Todd A. Pletcher | 5 |
| 13 | Comport | Eddie Kenneally | 5 |
| 14 | Desert Gate | Bob Baffert | 5 |
| 15 | Blackout Time | Kenneth G. McPeek | 5 |
| 16 | Talkin | Danny Gargan | 5 |
| 17 | Blacksmith | Bob Baffert | 5 |
| 18 | Very Connected | Kenneth G. McPeek | 5 |
| 19 | Balboa | Brittany T. Russell | 4 |
| 20 | Soldier N Diplomat | Steven M. Asmussen | 3 |
Last Updated on 12/19/2025
It is important to remember that the current leaderboard snapshot is only the first chapter of a long story. The Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby spans an eight-month marathon of races in North America, Japan, and Europe or the Middle East, with points escalating significantly in the major preps that begin in September. Early leaders can maintain their advantage if they stay healthy and keep progressing, but history shows that new names frequently surge into prominence once the 50 and 100 point Derby preps begin.
From a Kentucky Derby betting perspective, the biggest question around Ted Noffey is not whether he is the best 2-year-old. That part is already close to settled, given his unbeaten record and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory. The real question is whether he can maintain that edge into the spring. Only two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, which highlights how difficult it is for a colt to dominate at two and then carry that same level of form to the first Saturday in May.
There are a lot of variables working against any early favorite. Growth spurts, minor physical issues, changes in running style, weather, pace scenarios, and simple racing luck can all influence how a 3-year-old develops. The Derby itself can be chaotic, with a giant field, a long run to the first turn, and a crowd of more than 150,000 adding to the intensity. That is why early Kentucky Derby odds, even on a standout like Ted Noffey, always carry risk along with opportunity.
The flip side is that Ted Noffey’s overall profile looks exactly like what you would want in a long-term Derby prospect. He has tactical speed that keeps him out of traffic, proven finishing power on the route of ground, elite speed figures for his age, and a pedigree that suggests he will not be out of his depth at a mile and a quarter. When that kind of package is already converting into wins against the best of his generation, it naturally pushes him to the top of any serious list of 2026 Kentucky Derby early favorites.
Ted Noffey is the headline horse for now, but the rest of the field is far from settled. Mr. A.P. and Brant have already chased him home in top-level races and proved that they belong in graded company, and both remain logical candidates to improve with distance and maturity. Intrepido, Spice Runner, and Napoleon Solo have all taken important steps forward in early preps and currently sit in strong positions on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Horses like Universe, Blackout Time, Talkin, Very Connected, and Comport are also worth following as the calendar turns. They have already earned points and shown flashes of ability, which means they are only one major prep win away from transforming their status in Kentucky Derby odds and futures markets. For bettors looking for value, these are the types that often fly just under the radar until a big performance forces everyone to reevaluate them.
The early Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby has delivered a clear message. Ted Noffey is not just another talented 2-year-old. He is an undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner with elite speed figures, a classic pedigree, top-tier connections, and a commanding lead on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. That combination makes him the centerpiece of any serious discussion about 2026 Kentucky Derby early favorites and places him at the heart of current Kentucky Derby odds and Kentucky Derby betting conversations.
At the same time, the story is far from finished. The prep season and championship series will add layers of form, expose weaknesses, and reveal new stars. For now, Ted Noffey sets the bar for everyone else. The smart play for bettors and fans is to keep one eye on him and one eye on the emerging contenders climbing the Kentucky Derby leaderboard as the long march toward the first Saturday in May continues.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
