Anyone who makes the annual pilgrimage to Saratoga knows the weather there can be crazy. Like handicapping horses, it’s all about uncertainty. At noon it can be sunny, and at 1 there’s a torrential downpour. You never can tell...
The rain began on Friday, the day before Belmont Stakes Day, and was expected to continue on and off – with possible thunderstorms -- through Saturday. Post time for the 157th Belmont Stakes (G1) is 7:04 p.m. ET (FOX Sports) and it remained to be seen what shape the track will be in as the final leg of the Triple Crown approaches. Keep in mind, if there any changes in the weather, your Belmont Stakes betting strategy will be affected as well.
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Some horses are uncomfortable on wet tracks and don’t fully extend themselves. Others move up on off tracks, which have four designations – wet/fast, sloppy, good and muddy. Frontrunners tend to do better on wet/fast and sloppy surfaces, where they can skip over the ground and don’t get mud kicked in their face. Conversely, good and muddy tracks aid closers when the sticky ground tires pacesetters.
So, how much will a wet track affect Saturday’s Belmont Stakes? Maybe quite a bit, maybe hardly at all. Look for clues from the earlier races. Is the track favoring speed or closers, or a mix? Studying past performances and bloodlines could help you cash tickets and usracing.com is here to help.
He’s among four in the race who’s never run on wet dirt, and unfortunately, pedigree stats are inconclusive. Offspring of his sire, Quality Road, win 16% of the time on wet surfaces, according to stats provided by twinspires.com. The four foals of his dam, Exotic Notion, are 0-for-4 on off tracks.
He was terrific in the Kentucky Derby (G1), surging late to win by 1¼ lengths in his wet-track debut. Mott and Alvarado would welcome showers.
Like Hill Road, Crudo and Heart of Honor, he’s run only on dry tracks, and Rodriguez’s pedigree data is not promising for success in the slop. His sire, 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic, gets 9.9% winners (6-for-67) on wet surfaces. The foals of Rodriguez’s unraced dam, Cayela, have better numbers (4-for-26, 15.4%). Rodriguez is quick early, which should help him.
Oddly, the field’s least impressive member has the best off-track record -- 2-for-2 on tracks listed as muddy, winning both by 1¾ lengths. That’s no surprise, because his sire, Curlin, dominated the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at rain-soaked Monmouth Park. But let’s not get carried away. Although Uncaged likes wet going, he remains a strong candidate to finish last.
This speedy longshot has the genes to love a wet track, even though it would be his first time. His sire, 2018 Triple Crown hero Justified, won the Derby and Preakness Stakes (G1) on sloppy tracks. His children win 20% of the time on wet surfaces, and Crudo’s damsire, Deputy Minister, is a historically outstanding slop influence. Foals of Crudo’s unraced dam, Blossoming, have 12 wins (30.8%) and eight seconds in only 39 off-track starts. If it’s wet, this guy is worth a bet.
Despite a rough trip, this improving colt was a fast-closing third in the Derby, his wet-track debut. If he doesn’t run well Saturday, it won’t be because of moisture in the ground.
Traffic trouble and Sovereignty, not the slop, kept Derby runner-up Journalism from validating his favoritism. He’s undoubtedly better on a dry track (5-for-6). Yet if he doesn’t excel Saturday, it most likely will be a result of running his third race in five weeks.
This deep closer magnifies that tactical disadvantage by breaking slowly. Foals of his sire, Honor A.P., are a solid 16.3% on off going. Heart of Honor’s dam, Ruby Love, never ran on a wet track, and neither did any of her four foals.
Here is the chart with the most current odds for the 2025 Belmont Stakes:
Image Updated June 6th, 7:22PM ET
