The Kentucky Derby is the most-watched, most-wagered horse race in the United States — and US Racing is your authoritative destination for 2026 Kentucky Derby odds, contender analysis, and expert picks. Whether you're placing a futures bet months out or looking for live race-day odds, this guide covers everything you need to bet smarter on the Run for the Roses.
The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 2, 2026, at the legendary Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Post time is approximately 6:57 PM ET. The total purse stands at $5 million — the richest in Derby history — with $3.1 million awarded to the winner. The race is contested at 1¼ miles (10 furlongs) over dirt by three-year-old Thoroughbreds, with a maximum field of 20 starters determined by the Road to the Kentucky Derby points system.
BUSR offers fixed-odds wagering on the Kentucky Derby — one of the few platforms where you can lock in your price before post time. That means no tote fluctuations: the odds you bet are the odds you get paid. Below, you'll find live odds, in-depth contender breakdowns, prep race analysis, and expert insight to help you find value in the 2026 Derby field.
| Race | 152nd Kentucky Derby — The Run for the Roses |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, May 2, 2026 |
| Post Time | Approximately 6:57 PM ET |
| Location | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky |
| Distance | 1¼ Miles (10 Furlongs) — Dirt |
| Purse | $5,000,000 ($3.1M to the winner) |
| Field | Up to 20 Three-Year-Old Thoroughbreds |
| Fixed Odds | Available Now at BUSR — Bet Today's Price |
The Road to the Kentucky Derby awards points to the top five finishers in each qualifying prep race. The top 17 point-earners earn a starting spot in the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2, 2026 — plus up to two invitations from the Euro/Mideast series and one from the Japan series. Knowing who leads the leaderboard tells you which horses are virtually guaranteed a starting spot and which are fighting for their lives in the final preps. Leaderboard updated through March 23, 2026.
| # | Horse | Trainer | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Commandment | Brad H. Cox | 150 |
| 2 | Further Ado | Brad H. Cox | 135 |
| 3 | Renegade | Todd A. Pletcher | 125 |
| 4 | So Happy | Mark Glatt | 115 |
| 5 | Fulleffort | Brad H. Cox | 110 |
| 6 | The Puma | Gustavo Delgado | 106 |
| 7 | Silent Tactic | Mark E. Casse | 100 |
| 8 | Emerging Market | Chad C. Brown | 100 |
| 9 | Albus | Riley Mott | 100 |
| 10 | Potente | Bob Baffert | 100 |
| 11 | Pavlovian | Doug F. O'Neill | 70 |
| 12 | Right to Party | Kenneth G. McPeek | 65 |
| 13 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 60 |
| 14 | Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | 60 |
| 15 | Ottinho | Chad C. Brown | 56 |
| 16 | Stark Contrast | Michael W. McCarthy | 50 |
| 17 | Iron Honor | Chad C. Brown | 50 |
| 18 | Chief Wallabee | William I. Mott | 50 |
| 19 | Chip Honcho | Steven M. Asmussen | 49 |
| 20 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 38 |
Last Updated on 04/13/2026
The road to the 152nd Kentucky Derby has reached its final stretch following the conclusion of all official prep races. With the qualifying season now complete, the focus shifts to the May 2, 2026, race at Churchill Downs.
Renegade, coming off a decisive victory in the Arkansas Derby, has emerged as the clear betting favorite at 4-1. He is joined at the top of the market by his stablemates from the Brad Cox barn, including Commandment (7-1) and the impressive Blue Grass Stakes winner Further Ado (8-1). While the futures market remains fluid as connections prepare for the April 25 post-position draw, sharp bettors are currently identifying Fulleffort (23-1) as a notable overlay with legitimate credentials following his Jeff Ruby Steaks performance.
Below are the current top contenders as of April 15, 2026. Please note that odds are subject to change as the field is finalized:
| HORSE | TRAINER | ODDS (04/15) | TEND | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renegade | Todd Pletcher | 4/1 | ▲ Shortening | Favorite |
| Commandment | Brad Cox | 7/1 | ▲ Shortening | Top Contender |
| The Puma | Gustavo Delgado | 12/1 | ▲ Shortening | Top Contender |
| Chief Wallabee | Bill Mott | 13/1 | ▼ Drifting | Top Contender |
| Emerging Market | Chad Brown | 15/1 | → Stable | Top Contender |
| Potente | Bob Baffert | 16/1 | ▲ Shortening | Emerging |
| Further Ado | Brad Cox | 17/1 | ▲ Shortening | Top Contender |
| Cherokee Nation | Bob Baffert | 18/1 | ▲ Shortening | Longshot |
| Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 22/1 | ▲ Shortening | Watch |
| Fulleffort | Brad Cox | 23/1 | ▲ Shortening | Value Play |
| Danon Bourbon | Manabu Ikezoe | 23/1 | ▲ Shortening | Longshot |
| Reagan's Honor | Cherie DeVaux | 27/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Silent Tactic | Mark E. Casse | 32/1 | ▼ Drifting | Contender |
| Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | 32/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Iron Honor | Chad Brown | 34/1 | ▼ Drifting | Watch |
| Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 38/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Wonder Dean (JPN) | Daisuke Takayanagi | 42/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Talk To Me Jimmy | Rudy R. Rodriguez | 48/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Pavlovian | Doug F. O'Neill | 52/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Class President | Todd A. Pletcher | 53/1 | ▼ Drifting | Contender |
| Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 53/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Great White | John Ennis | 57/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Robusta | Doug F. O'Neill | 72/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Buetane | Bob Baffert | 77/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Courting | Todd A. Pletcher | 81/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| So Happy | Mark Glatt | 93/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Six Speed | Bhupat Seemar | 93/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Chip Honcho | Steve Asmussen | 101/1 | ▼ Drifting | Longshot |
| Steel | Bill Mott | 124/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Talkin | Danny Gargan | 129/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Bravaro | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 162/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Albus | Riley Mott | 173/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Creole Chrome | Joe Sharp | 178/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Ottinho | Chad Brown | 208/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Right to Party | Kenny McPeek | 317/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Ocelli | Whit Beckman | 429/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Minorinconvenience | Amelia Green | 541/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Red Zone Runner | Hugo Padillo | 592/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
| Start the Ride | Dan Blacker | 734/1 | → Stable | Longshot |
Kentucky Derby betting odds begin to take shape as early as the summer prior, when two-year-old stakes races like the Breeders' Cup Juvenile start to reveal class. By January, winter-book odds are posted at major online racebooks. The biggest movement happens in four critical windows:
Churchill Downs also runs six installments of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), a pari-mutuel pool where you can bet on individual horses or the "All Other" entry. Pool 5 opened March 13 with Paladin at 5-1. BUSR's fixed-odds format means your return is guaranteed at the time you place your bet — a critical advantage in a volatile market.
| Horse | Commandment | Odds | 6-1 |
| Trainer | Brad Cox | Jockey | Luis Saez |
| Last Prep | Florida Derby (G1) — 1st (Mar 28); 150 Derby Points | ||
| Analysis | The undisputed points leader heading into Churchill Downs, Commandment has reeled off three consecutive stakes wins in Florida, including a gritty nose victory in the Florida Derby. With 150 points and a 4-for-5 career record, he has proven his class and stamina. He transitions to jockey Luis Saez as trainer Brad Cox seeks his second Derby victory. | ||
| Horse | Renegade | Odds | 9-2 |
| Trainer | Todd Pletcher | Jockey | Irad Ortiz Jr. |
| Last Prep | Arkansas Derby (G1) — 1st (Mar 28); 125 Derby Points | ||
| Analysis | Undefeated in 2026, Renegade has surged to the top of the power rankings following his impressive Arkansas Derby win. Todd Pletcher’s colt is a "grinder" with tactical versatility, making him arguably the most professional horse in the gate. With 125 points and Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, he is primed for a massive effort. | ||
| Horse | Further Ado | Odds | 5-1 |
| Trainer | Brad Cox | Jockey | John Velazquez |
| Last Prep | Blue Grass Stakes (G2) — 1st (Apr 4); 135 Derby Points | ||
| Analysis | Another powerhouse from the Brad Cox stable, Further Ado secured his spot with a dominant win in the Blue Grass Stakes. With a pedigree built for distance and a jockey in John Velazquez who knows the Churchill Downs oval intimately, he is a major threat to challenge his stablemate Commandment for favoritism. | ||
| Horse | Chief Wallabee | Odds | 10-1 |
| Trainer | Bill Mott | Jockey | Junior Alvarado |
| Last Prep | Florida Derby (G1) — 3rd (Mar 28) | ||
| Analysis | After narrowly missing in the Fountain of Youth, Chief Wallabee finished third in the Florida Derby. While he hasn't won a major prep this season, his consistency against top-flight competition keeps him in the mix. Bill Mott’s patience is well-documented, and he remains a dangerous closer if the pace sets up correctly. | ||
| Horse | Potente | Odds | 15-1 |
| Trainer | Bob Baffert | Jockey | Juan Hernandez |
| Last Prep | Santa Anita Derby (G1) — 2nd (Apr 4); 100 Derby Points | ||
| Analysis | As the lone starter for Bob Baffert, Potente brings immense talent and a high pedigree ($2.4M yearling purchase) to the race. Despite placing second in the Santa Anita Derby, his early speed and raw ability have made him a focal point for bettors. With 100 points, he is safely in the field, aiming to give Baffert a record-tying 7th Derby victory. | ||
The morning line is a handicapper's estimate of how the betting public will wager on race day — it is not a probability of winning. Churchill Downs' official morning line odds for the 2026 Kentucky Derby will be released following the post position draw in late April. The morning line is set by the track's official odds-maker and serves as the opening benchmark for the pari-mutuel pools.
Traditional Kentucky Derby wagering operates through a pari-mutuel pool. The track takes a fixed percentage (the 'takeout,' typically 17–20%), and the remaining pool is divided among winning ticket holders. Because the final payout depends on how much money is bet on each horse, odds fluctuate continuously from the moment betting opens until the gates close. A horse that receives heavy late action can shift from 10-1 to 4-1 within minutes.
Fixed-odds betting — offered at BUSR — guarantees your return at the price shown when you place your bet. If Paladin is 5-1 when you bet and drifts to 3-1 by post time, you still collect 5-1. This is a significant advantage for bettors who want to lock in value on a contender early in the prep season before odds compress after a decisive prep race win.
Futures betting on the Kentucky Derby is available year-round at BUSR racebook and through Churchill Downs' official Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools. Six KDFW pools are typically offered between November and April. The KDFW includes an 'All Other 3-Year-Olds' entry — a catch-all for horses not yet prominent enough to be individually listed — which historically produces strong overlays.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying system awards points to the top five finishers in designated prep races from September through mid-April. The 20 horses with the most points — plus international qualifiers — earn a starting spot. Knowing which preps carry the most points and which have the strongest predictive track record for the Derby is essential to identifying value in the futures market.
| Race | Track | Date | Points | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain of Youth (G2) | Gulfstream Park | Feb 28 | 50 pts | Commandment (1st); Chief Wallabee (2nd) |
| Louisiana Derby (G2) | Fair Grounds | Mar 21 | 100 pts | Emerging Market (1st); Pavlovian (2nd) |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) | Turfway Park | Mar 21 | 100 pts | Fulleffort (1st); Stark Contrast (2nd) |
| Florida Derby (G1) | Gulfstream Park | Mar 28 | 100 pts | Commandment (1st); Nearly (2nd); Chief Wallabee (3rd) |
| Arkansas Derby (G1) | Oaklawn Park | Mar 28 | 100 pts | Renegade (1st); Class President (2nd) |
| Santa Anita Derby (G1) | Santa Anita | Apr 4 | 100 pts | Litmus Test (1st); Potente (2nd) |
| Blue Grass Stakes (G1) | Keeneland | Apr 4 | 100 pts | Further Ado (1st); Paladin (2nd) |
Run at 1 1/16 miles, the Fountain of Youth awards 50 points (Championship Series structure) to the winner and is Florida's most important early Kentucky Derby prep race. In 2026, Commandment surged to the top of the leaderboard with a neck-victory, posting a 101 Beyer — the fastest speed figure of any 2026 prep to date. Chief Wallabee finished a game second with a 100 Beyer, setting the stage for a high-stakes rematch in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28.
| → Read more: Fountain of Youth Stakes 2026 — Results, Recap, and Kentucky Derby Implications |
The Gotham, contested at one mile at Aqueduct on March 1, is New York's primary early Derby qualifying race. Iron Honor (Chad Brown) won the 2026 running, moving from 122-1 to 25-1 in the futures market overnight. Brown trains both Iron Honor and Paladin, giving his barn two legitimate Derby paths from different prep routes. The Gotham winner has historically faced a step up in competition at the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass.
| → Read more: Gotham Stakes 2026 — Results and Kentucky Derby Qualifying Impact |
The most prestigious West Coast Derby prep, awarding 100 points to the winner at 1 1/8 miles. Bob Baffert typically uses this race to finalize his Churchill Downs squad. Potente is the 2026 target — a win here at 15-1 current odds would almost certainly install him as a top-5 market choice and move him to 8-1 or shorter. Baffert horses from the Santa Anita Derby have produced multiple Kentucky Derby winners.
| → Read more: Santa Anita Derby 2026 — Odds, Contenders and Churchill Downs Roadmap |
Run at 1 1/8 miles at Keeneland — a track whose surface characteristics most closely mirror Churchill Downs — the Blue Grass is considered the most 'local' and telling of all major Derby preps. Paladin is targeting the Blue Grass as his final start before Churchill Downs. A dominant win would likely make him odds-on or close to it; a loss would trigger a major market reshuffling. The single most important 2026 Derby betting event is still on the calendar.
| → Read more: Blue Grass Stakes 2026 — Paladin, Odds and Kentucky Derby Implications |
US Racing's horse racing analysts have broken down the 2026 field with one goal: finding the best bets at the right price. Here's our current expert assessment of the market as of mid-March 2026, with approximately seven weeks until the first Saturday in May.
| EXPERT VALUE PLAYS — 2026 KENTUCKY DERBY |
|---|
| Renegade (9-2) — SOLID PLAY. Todd Pletcher’s top contender with two Derby wins already on his resume. Following a dominant victory in the Arkansas Derby, he is the class of the field. Current 9-2 odds represent fair value before final post-position adjustments. |
| Commandment (6-1) — VALUE PLAY. Brad Cox’s primary prospect, bolstered by three stakes victories in Florida including the Florida Derby. With a 101 Beyer speed figure and 150 qualifying points, he is arguably the most reliable horse in the gate. 6-1 is an attractive price for the points leader. |
| Potente (15-1) — SPECULATIVE VALUE. Bob Baffert’s standout prospect with a massive $2.4M pedigree. Despite a second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, his raw talent is elite. Baffert’s proven track record of peaking horses for May makes 15-1 a high-upside play. |
| Further Ado (5-1) — SOLID PLAY. The star of the Brad Cox barn following his Blue Grass Stakes triumph. Possesses the tactical speed and turn of foot required for the 10-furlong test. With John Velazquez in the saddle, he is a primary win contender. |
| Paladin (8-1) — UNDERLAY. While unbeaten for much of his career, his second-place run in the Blue Grass Stakes highlighted some vulnerabilities. Given trainer Chad Brown’s historical struggles (0-for-9 in the Derby), his current 8-1 price tag feels like an underlay compared to more proven winners. |
Jockey assignments for the 2026 Derby field are nearing completion as the race approaches. Confirmed high-profile pairings include Juan Hernandez on Potente and Javier Castellano on The Puma. Top riders such as Irad Ortiz Jr., Flavien Prat, and Luis Saez continue to be sought after by major connections. Historically, jockeys with prior experience on their mount hold a distinct advantage navigating the unique demands of the Churchill Downs stretch.
Q: Who is the favorite for the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
A: As of mid-March 2026, Paladin (Chad Brown) is the 5-1 favorite in Churchill Downs' Future Wager Pool 5. Commandment (6-1) and Nearly/Chief Wallabee (both 8-1) are the next closest challengers. The market remains wide open with seven weeks until the race and several 100-point qualifying preps still to run.
Q: How do Kentucky Derby odds work?
A: Traditional Derby wagering is pari-mutuel: all bets on a race go into a communal pool, the track takes its cut (typically 17-20%), and the remainder is divided among winning tickets. Odds represent the ratio of money bet against a horse relative to the total pool. BUSR offers fixed odds, where your payout is locked in at the time you place your bet, regardless of subsequent market movement.
Q: When are Kentucky Derby odds updated?
A: Live futures odds at BUSR racebook are updated continuously throughout the prep season — and dramatically following major qualifying races. The most significant updates come on the Sunday after each major prep race (typically Saturday). Churchill Downs' official Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools close Sunday evening, with final odds posted the following week.
Q: What is the Kentucky Derby Future Wager?
A: The Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) is an official pari-mutuel wagering opportunity offered by Churchill Downs across six pools from November through April. Bettors can wager on individual horses or the 'All Other 3-Year-Olds' catchall. Pool 5 opened March 13, 2026, with Paladin at 5-1. Fixed-odds alternatives are available at BUSR.
Q: What is the Kentucky Derby purse in 2026?
A: The 2026 Kentucky Derby purse is $5 million — matching the record set in 2024 and retained in 2025. The winner receives $3.1 million, second place earns $1 million, third place earns $500,000, fourth place earns $250,000, and fifth place earns $150,000. The Kentucky Derby has the highest purse of any Triple Crown race.
Q: Can I bet on the Kentucky Derby with fixed odds?
A: Yes. BUSR offers fixed-odds betting on the Kentucky Derby, meaning the price you see when you place your bet is the price you get paid — regardless of how the tote market moves on race day. This is particularly valuable for bettors who identify value early in the prep season before a horse's odds shorten after a big win.
Q: How many horses run in the Kentucky Derby?
A: The Kentucky Derby field is capped at 20 horses. Horses earn starting spots by accumulating points through the Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race series, which runs from September through mid-April. The 20 horses with the most points earn their spots. In 2026, international qualifiers from Japan and Europe-Middle East can also earn single spots via their regional series.
Q: What prep races are most important for predicting the Kentucky Derby winner?
A: The most predictive prep races are the 100-point qualifiers run in late March and early April: the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Blue Grass Stakes. Winners of these races have historically produced a disproportionate number of Derby winners, finalists, and exacta/trifecta participants.
BUSR offers the most Kentucky Derby wagers of any horse betting site — including fixed odds, futures, exotics, and live race-day pools. Lock in today's prices before the final preps reshape the market
When is the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, May 2nd, 2026
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby?
At BUSR: Odds are Live!
What channel is the Kentucky Derby on?
Watch the Kentucky Derby live on TV with NBC at 5:00 pm EST
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