The Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) runs through many racetracks. Among them is Oaklawn Park, whose four preps -- the Smarty Jones, Southwest Stakes (G3), Rebel Stakes (G2), and Arkansas Derby (G1) -- have showcased many future winners in the classics.
American Pharoah, who swept the 2015 Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes (G1), and Belmont Stakes (G1), leads the list. Bob Baffert shipped him to Hot Springs to take the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. He and 2004 Derby-Preakness hero Smarty Jones are the only ones to complete the Rebel-Kentucky Derby double, but quite a few others took an Oaklawn prep and a Triple Crown event.
Mystik Dan (2024) finished first in the Southwest two months before his 18-1 shocker at Churchill Downs. Curlin (2007) and Lookin at Lucky (2010) won the Rebel Stakes and the Preakness Stakes. Afleet Alex (2005) scored in the Arkansas Derby, Preakness, and Belmont. Creator (2016) earned trophies in the Arkansas Derby and Belmont. Maybe this year’s Rebel hero will also come up big in the Triple Crown.
On Sunday, Oaklawn will host the 66th running of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel (post time 6:23 p.m. ET). Besides a $1 million purse, it offers Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the first five finishers on a sliding scale (50-25-15-10-5). Victory would all but guarantee a spot in Derby 152 on May 2.
For those who like to bet on racing, here’s a horse-by-horse analysis of the Rebel from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, and odds in parentheses:
Only loss was a distant second to the highly rated Nearly in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream. Reportedly will be scratched and run there on Saturday in the Fountain of Youth (G2).
Could give Baffert a record-extending ninth Rebel victory. Stalker with tactical speed hasn’t run since December, when he won a weak Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Definite contender is likely underlay due to superstar connections.
Hasn’t done anything wrong in two starts that followed the classic Pletcher pattern: dominant debut followed by a stakes. Ran a respectable second to unbeaten Solitude Dude in the 7-furlong Swale. Pletcher has many Derby contenders, and he’s using the Rebel to see whether he has another.
Promising colt ran solid second to eventual 2-year-old champ Ted Noffey on Oct. 4 in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Hasn’t run since then, which is a big concern for the short-odds favorite. Can’t expect him to be fully cranked for his season debut.
McPeek loves to take shots in stakes, which is what he’s doing here. Son of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame won an optional claimer by a neck after breaking his maiden in his fourth try. Makes a quantum leap in class in a million-dollar race. No chance.
Missed training time before plodding in 10th last time in the Southwest (G3). He’s 0-for-2, beaten 26 lengths, in graded stakes. Hard to expect a dramatic turnaround against the best field he’s ever faced.
Came flying late in a last-to-first upset at 12-1 odds in the Southwest. That was a career best in a four-race career in which he’s never been out of the exacta. Not expecting a similar performance against a better field.
After going 2-for-2 last season, he regressed in two starts this year. He ran a distant fifth in Smarty Jones and improved slightly to be fourth in the Southwest. Can’t see him waking up to make an impact.
He’s 1-for-6 lifetime after a dismal 3-year-old debut – last of seven by more than 20 lengths in an optional claimer. The winner was fellow Rebel longshot Honey’s to Blame, who’s also in over his head.
Did all the dirty work in the Southwest before understandably tiring late. Broke well from post 11, ran three- and four-wide throughout in third while pressing the pace. Led in the upper stretch and looked like he’d win until Silent Tactic went by inside the sixteenth pole. Live longshot if Ortiz can work out a better trip, but the far outside post is a problem.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
