December historically establishes the critical fault lines in the three-year-old division. Many casual bettors focus narrowly on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile results, allowing true value to slip through the cracks as attention shifts to holiday schedules.
We, however, target the hidden gems, horses that flash brilliance, possess impeccable distance pedigrees, or simply offer long Kentucky Derby Odds far too generous for their potential. This comprehensive analysis bypasses the obvious favorites, concentrating instead on five colts whose current prices offer compelling risk-reward ratios for serious horse racing players looking to bet on Kentucky Derby contenders now. We delve into their recent performances, projected December Kentucky Derby prep races, and why they belong at the top of your Kentucky Derby leaderboard watchlist before the New Year.
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The Longshoreman currently offers a striking 80-to-1 futures price, an incredible overestimation of his weaknesses, and an underappreciation of his lineage. This powerfully built colt recently demolished an allowance field at Churchill Downs over 1 1/16 miles, earning an eye-popping 92 Beyer Speed Figure.
Critics dismiss the win because it lacked "points," but they overlook the manner of his victory. He relaxed beautifully off the pace, navigated traffic on the final turn, and then uncorked a closing fractional time that compares favorably to many Grade 1 winners.
His sire, a proven influence at classic distances, guarantees he will thrive at 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May. Trainer William Harding rarely pushes his juveniles, meaning The Longshoreman enters December fresh and pointing towards a late-season breakout in the Remsen Stakes or perhaps the Springboard Mile.
This horse’s current price reflects a glaring lack of buzz, not a lack of talent, solidifying his status as a tremendous value play for Kentucky Derby futures players. You simply must lock in this price before he makes his points-race debut this month; the value will evaporate instantly with a Grade 2 win.
Desert Vulture enters this discussion from the highly competitive California circuit, currently floating around 55-to-1 in the futures pools. This colt impressed everyone with a visually stunning maiden win at Del Mar, stretching out to 1 1/16 miles. He possesses the sharp tactical speed necessary to control a race, a trait invaluable in a 20-horse field where securing position early is paramount.
His trainer, the masterful Rhonda Chavez, often deliberately keeps her charges out of the limelight until they are ready to peak, making her barn a consistent source of inflated odds. Chavez targets the Los Alamitos Futurity, a key December stepping stone offering 10 valuable Kentucky Derby betting points.
History shows that winners of that race consistently improve exponentially as they mature into three-year-olds. We love that Desert Vulture has already demonstrated the ability to ship and perform under pressure. While some detractors question whether his raw speed will translate into grinding stamina over two turns, his dam side provides ample assurance, suggesting the 1 1/4-mile trip is well within his scope. Smart handicappers recognize that the low-key West Coast results often deliver inflated odds compared to the high-profile East Coast events, making him a prime target.
Snowy Gambit holds the highest odds of our five selections, currently lingering around 120-to-1, primarily due to his spectacular but one-dimensional success. Public opinion often devalues "off-track" wins, but the massive speed figures he posted were undeniable, irrespective of the footing.
This dominant performance earned him 10 points and firmly planted him on the early Kentucky Derby leaderboard. Analyst data shows that horses who handle adversity and post huge figures early often carry that mental toughness forward. Furthermore, his pedigree is rich with horses who simply adore the Churchill Downs surface, regardless of track condition.
His trainer, seasoned veteran Michael Kellar, confirms Snowy Gambit exits the race in phenomenal condition and plans only light training through December before gearing up for a major January prep. Suppose you want a genuine longshot offering the potential of an overnight odds collapse. In that case, you need to grab Snowy Gambit’s current value before bettors acknowledge the sheer raw speed he displayed in a high-pressure environment. That performance signaled the arrival of a serious contender.
Ironclad Oath represents the classic "hard luck" value play, currently priced at 40-to-1. His fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile proved severely deceiving. He drew the extreme outside post, got shut off entering the first turn, raced wide throughout the entire race, and still managed to finish within four lengths of the much shorter-priced winner. That terrible trip sapped his energy, yet his ability to grind late confirmed his immense talent and heart.
His sire is a known producer of Triple Crown winners, giving him the genetic blueprint for true classic distance success. Trainer Alicia Gomez understands Ironclad Oath needs a confidence-boosting, ground-saving trip to showcase his true abilities. Gomez publicly stated she will target the prestigious Los Alamitos Futurity in mid-December to capitalize on the shorter, fairer field size and better post positions, offering him the perfect stage for redemption.
The general public sees a fourth-place finish; smart handicappers see a Grade 1 performance utterly ruined by circumstances. We view his current Kentucky Derby Odds as a temporary market inefficiency, knowing a clean trip and a strong performance in his next outing will instantly halve his price and propel him up the futures board.
Midnight Envoy is perhaps the most intriguing, high-risk, high-reward proposition available today, offering 95-to-1 odds solely because of the surface question. This sleek, European-bred colt absolutely dismantled fields on the grass this summer and fall, demonstrating breathtaking acceleration and stamina over 1 1/8 miles. However, his American connections now strongly suggest a switch to the main track for a final high-impact Kentucky derby prep races run in late December, likely the Springboard Mile.
His dam was an exceptional dirt router from a line known for producing hard-knocking, adaptable horses, providing a strong genetic counter-argument to the pure-turf perception. If Midnight Envoy replicates even 80% of his turf form on the dirt, he immediately becomes one of the top five colts in the entire division, regardless of current odds.
The inherent risk of the surface change is fully factored into his current generous price, offering exceptional leverage to those who trust the pedigree. Therefore, taking a calculated shot on Midnight Envoy now offers a massive upside. You lock in a triple-digit value on a horse with superior fitness and speed figures, a price that will vanish the moment he hits the wire in his anticipated dirt debut.
We meticulously detailed five distinct angles of attack, five horses whose current market prices drastically undervalue their talent, pedigree, or race potential heading into the most crucial month for two-year-old racing.
From The Longshoreman’s overlooked stamina to Midnight Envoy’s thrilling potential to conquer the dirt, these colts represent the sharpest Kentucky Derby futures plays available heading into the crucial December period.
The major Kentucky Derby prep races- Remsen, Los Alamitos Futurity, and Springboard Mile—will significantly reshape the betting landscape and consolidate the Kentucky Derby leaderboard over the next four weeks.
Prices are volatile, but they only move in one direction once these horses win. Do not wait for the market to catch up. Seize this critical window of opportunity to secure elite Kentucky Derby betting value before the masses do. Stay tuned to US Racing for our exclusive premium analysis and receive live alerts the moment these colts enter the starting gate, giving you the immediate edge you need to transform these value picks into winning wagers.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
