Peter Pan Betting Analysis: Growth Equity 6-5 Favorite

Peter Pan Betting Analysis: Growth Equity 6-5 Favorite in Belmont Prep

That was some dramatic finish to the Kentucky Derby (G1) as Golden Tempo stormed home to capture the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

It was also a heartwarming story as Cherie DeVaux became the first woman to train a Derby winner. It seemed the whole world was watching. According to NBC, the latest Derby was the most-watched ever when you combine television and streaming audiences.

So what do we do for an encore? The Preakness Stakes (G1) is still over a week away, to be run this year at Laurel Park on May 16. We do have an interesting contest Saturday at Aqueduct, the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes (G3) with longer-range implications for the 3-year-old division.

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Peter Pan offers free passes to the Belmont Stakes

The Peter Pan at 1 1/8 miles is the traditional prep for the Belmont Stakes (G1) on June 6 at Saratoga. It’s also the most economical route to the Belmont. The New York Racing Association will waive the Belmont entry and starting fees for the first three Peter Pan finishers.

There is a hitch. If a horse is not nominated to the Triple Crown, there would be a $50,000 penalty to contest the Belmont. Of the six horses entered in the Peter Pan, only three are Triple Crown eligible: Growth Equity, Bull by the Horns, and Talk to Me Jimmy.

Peter Pan Odds: Growth Equity slight choice over Talk to Me Jimmy.

Of that trio, Growth Equity could be the one to beat.

This will be the stakes debut for the colt trained by Chad Brown. Growth Equity (the 6-5 favorite) fits the profile of a late-developing horse with substantial upside. He shows steadily improving speed figures in each of his three races and is thriving as distances increase.

The son of Nyquist, the 2016 Derby winner, exits a 1-mile maiden win where he cruised to victory as the 1-10 favorite.

Trendsetter (3-1) is an interesting entrant here. He pulled a stunning 32-1 upset in the Lexington Stakes (G3) and earned 20 Derby qualifying points. That wasn't enough to get him into the big show last weekend.

The Lexington win sparked speculation Trendsetter would instead target the Preakness. Clearly, that is no longer a consideration.

Trendsetter is battle-tested with a record of 3-1-1 in eight starts, as the Lexington victory snapped a five-race losing streak.

“It seems like he's really an improving horse. He's never been much of a work horse, but his last work after the race was really good,” trainer Ben Colebrook said. “Hopefully, he's an improving type, and we can have some fun with him this summer.”

Perhaps, but he seems more like a grinder than a classic runner.

And then there is the $50,000 question. If Trendsetter runs well in the Peter Pan, will his camp put up the supplement money to run in the Belmont?

“We’d have to think about it, for sure,” Colebrook said.

Talk to Me Jimmy (9-5) will try to atone for a poor try in the Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial (G2). After pressing pace, Talk to Me Jimmy folded his tent in the lane, finishing eighth.

He has a history of running big at the Big A. The New York-bred won the Withers Stakes in February by 11 lengths as a follow-up to a 5 1/2 length maiden win. Maybe the Wood just wasn't his day.

While we catch our collective breaths waiting for the Preakness, let’s dive into the Peter Pan.

The Picks: 1 Growth Equity, 2 Trendsetter, 3 Talk to Me Jimmy

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The field for the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes (G3), from the rail out, with trainer, jockey, odds:

  1. Trendsetter (Kizushi Kimura, Ben Colebrook), 3-1
  2. Azam (Jose Lezcano, Jose D'Angelo), 10-1
  3. Growth Equity (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown), 6-5
  4. Bull by the Horns (Micah Husbands, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 8-1
  5. Talk to Me Jimmy (Manny Franco, Rudy Rodriguez), 9-5
  6. Gulfy (Kendrick Carmouche, Gustavo Rodriguez), 8-1
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