The $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) attracted an intriguing field of 12 for Saturday’s renewal at Gulfstream Park.
Just how intriguing? Consider the fact that 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan is an 8-1 outsider in the 1 1/8-mile contest. Yes, it is that challenging.
But then, we handicappers never back away from the task at hand. So, let’s get right to it … starting with Locked as the 5-2 favorite.
Locked is loaded
The winner of the Cigar Mile (G2) last December at Aqueduct, Locked is primed and ready for a banner season as an emerging star in the handicap division.
He is lightly raced. This will be only his seventh start with a sparkling ledger of 4-0-2 thus far. He missed most of his 3-year-old season with a knee injury before returning late in the campaign to post a dominant allowance win as the tune up for the Cigar Mile.
Locked. Coady Photo.
Locked Top Choice Over Derby winner Mystik Dan, White Abarrio
Locked faces two significant challenges in this spot. He was handed a tough draw with post 11. That’s a major disadvantage in a 9-furlong dirt race at Gulfstream. The first turn comes up very quickly, raising the possibility he will face an extremely wide trip.
The second reservation centers on his lack of experience. Is he ready for this prime-time test against battle-hardened competitors in his first race beyond a mile?
“He’s a horse that we always felt would be better going longer,” said trainer Todd Pletcher, who won this race in 2022 with Life Is Good. “He’s been training really, really well so we’re excited about it.”
Pletcher also sends out Crupi, a deep closer listed at 15-1 on the morning line. Crupi came rolling late to get third in last year’s PWCI.
White Abarrio could be a force
Chief among the tough customers lining up to face Locked is White Abarrio, the top career earner in the field with over $5.2 million already in the bank, and the 3-1 second choice from post 4.
White Abarrio needs no introduction to most race fans. The winner of the Florida Derby (G1), the Whitney Stakes (G1) and 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is back with trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. after a brief interlude in Rick Dutrow’s barn.
He rallied for second in his last prep race, Gulfstream’s 7-furlong Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3). The added distance here should be a perfect fit.
“He seems to be a horse who’s giving all the signs that he’s going into the race to run his best,” Joseph said. “Anytime you don’t have to ship a horse and can run on your home track, I think it’s an advantage. I think he has a very good chance to win the Pegasus.”
We agree.
Like Pletcher, Joseph has a second runner in here: Skippylongstocking (10-1). This will be his third straight appearance in the PWCI, a race that hasn’t been kind to him. He ran seventh in 2023 and was pulled up last year.
Other notables in the field include Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner Saudi Crown; the talented filly Power Squeeze; Newgrange, a multiple Grade 2 winner in California; Mixto, the 22-1 upset winner of the Pacific Classic (G1) and Stronghold, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner who has a win and second in two tries at this distance.
Can Mystik Dan come close to his Derby form?
And what about Mystik Dan? It’s hard to get a read on his form. He was a tired horse at the end of the Triple Crown. After a rest, he returned with a dull effort in the Malibu Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita.
“Some horses go from being a good 3-year-old to a good older horse, and that’s a challenge.” said trainer Ken McPeak. “The Malibu wasn’t ideal. But it’s a long year and we have several chances to see where he fits.”
Agreed, but we’re not convinced this is the right time or the right spot.
For those who bet horse racing …
The picks: 1 White Abarrio 2 Stronghold 3 Locked
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
