The colts (and an occasional gelding) “Run for the Roses” in the Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4. Not to be left out, the fillies have their own race one day earlier, the Kentucky Oaks (G1), also at Churchill Downs.
The “Lillys for the Fillies” chase begins in earnest this weekend. Just as in the Derby hunt, contenders accumulate points in designated stakes races with the leaders getting starting posts in the Oaks field which is limited to 14.
While a smattering of points has already been distributed, the points ramp up, starting now. There are two stakes on the immediate horizon that each award 50 points to the winner. Victory in either should garner enough points to guarantee a trip to Louisville.
Racing Excitement Builds: UAE Oaks and Rachel Alexandra Take Center Stage
It starts Friday with the UAE Oaks (G3) in Dubai followed Saturday by the $300,000 Rachel Alexandra (G2) at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
It looks like it’ll be a hotly contested race down on the bayou.
Trainer Brad Cox, already enjoying a banner year that is less than two months old, sends out a trio in the Rachel Alexandra: Alpine Princess (7-2 on the morning line), West Omaha (9-2) and Tarifa (5-1).
Heading into the weekend, Cox has been sizzling at the Fair Grounds with 20 wins, good for second place in the standings. Impressively, the 20 wins come from only 66 starters, a sharp 30% success ratio.
The Race for Supremacy: Key Players in the Kentucky Oaks Showdown
In contrast, meet leader Shane Wilson has 38 wins but needed 229 starts to accumulate that total, producing a more modest 17% strike rate.
On the topic of numbers, the Rachel Alexandra will help shape the Kentucky Oaks field as five of the seven runners already have qualifying points.
The current leader of the Oaks pack is Just F Y I, last season’s 2-year-old filly champion, with 40 points. The leading point-getter in the Rachel Alexandra is West Omaha in third place with 25 points. A win vaults her to the top spot.
She is well positioned here with Luis Saez in town for the mount. Saez will be looking to complete a Cox-trained stakes double as he rides Catching Freedom one race later in the $400,000 Risen Star (G2) for colts.
West Omaha scored an impressive win here last month in the Silverbulletday Stakes, drawing away to a five-length victory.
Racing Towards Glory: The High Stakes of the Rachel Alexandra
Alpine Princess puts a two-race winning streak on the line, including the Fair Grounds’ Untappable Stakes in late December. She has 10 Oaks points, good for an eight-way tie for 15th place in the rankings. V V’s Dream, the 5-2 favorite, Intricate (3-1) and Perfect Shot (10-1) are part of that eight-way logjam.
The main knock against V V’s Dream is the layoff. Her last effort was a tiring third in the slop last October in the Rags to Riches Stakes at Churchill Downs.
“She wilted on us later in the season,” trainer Ken McPeek said. “We needed to give her an extended break. She’s been working super. She’s as strong as ever right now.”
Perhaps. History suggests dirt horses returning from layoffs often need a race or two to hone their edge. V V’s Dream will undoubtedly be a factor down the road. We just don’t think she delivers in this spot.
Tarifa, the third member of the Cox trio, and Pennick (8-1) will be hunting their first Oaks points.
While the winner gets 50, the next four finishers also bank points on a 25-15-10-5 scale.
Post time for the Rachel Alexandra is 6:48 p.m. ET
The picks: 1 West Omaha 2 Tarifa 3 V V’s Dream
1 Tarifa (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox), 5-1
2 Pennick (Jareth Loveberry. GM Scherer), 8-1
3 Perfect Shot (Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen), 10-1
4 Intricate (Tyler Gaffalione, Brendan Walsh), 3-1
5 Alpine Princess (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox), 7-2
6 V V’s Dream (Brain Hernandez, Jr., Ken McPeek), 5-2
7 West Omaha (Luis Saez, Brad Cox), 9-2
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
