For the past few years, picking the post-time favorite to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1) has been about as reliable as listening to the weather forecasts for Louisville during Derby week.
You know the drill: you bring your rain gear to Churchill Downs because they said it would pour all day, and it’s 75 degrees and sunny. Or it’s supposed to be a delightful spring afternoon, and you wind up wet and shivering because you neglected to bring a parka.
More to the point, since 2010, the post-time favorite for the 1 1/8 mile Oaks has only won four times: even-money Blind Luck that year, Untapable at 4-5 in 2014, Monomoy Girl (2-1) in 2018 and Malathaat the most recent in 2021, when she remained unbeaten in winning at 5-2, an overlay if there ever was one. That’s a percentage of about 26.7.
The heavy favorite in this Friday’s $1.5 million Oaks – and deservedly so – is Godolphin’s homebred Good Cheer (6-5), who has won all six of her starts by a combined margin of 42¼ lengths. She’s come through as the odds-on choice in her previous five starts, is 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs (including a 17-length win in the slop, in case you were wondering), is regally bred (Medaglia d’Oro out of a Street Sense mare), has a favorable post in No. 11, and is trained by Brad Cox, going for his third Oaks win.
“She’s been perfect to this point, and hopefully we can continue that,” said Cox.
The downside to Good Cheer is that her speed figures are not as overwhelming as one might expect, having earned a career-best 91 in taking the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) on March 22.
Ahead of Good Cheer in that respect, albeit narrowly, is the Bob Baffert-trained Tenma, who has five wins in six starts. The Nyquist filly, who fetched $850,000 at the OBS sales last year, was given a 92 speed figure after her 6 ½-length Las Virgenes (G3) victory in her sophomore debut. She came back two months later to extend her win streak to three in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) but earned only a 75 for that effort.
“Her last race she ran well, but I wasn’t crazy about it,” said Baffert, who has won three Oaks. “The track was sort of deep, and she’s had trouble with [Santa Anita]. Since she’s been here, she’s happy, and happy horses run well.”
Tenma (12-1) is one of only two fillies with a Grade 1 win on her resume, having taken the Del Mar Debutante in September. The other is the speedy La Cara (6-1), front-running winner of the Ashland last time out. Prior to that, the Street Sense filly finished second, a nose ahead of Oaks entrant and Gazelle (G3) winner Ballerina d’Oro in the Davona Dale (G2).
Trained by Mark Casse, La Cara looks to be in fine fettle as Friday approaches, and there will be no doubt as to how her race will unfold.
“She’s going to come away from there running, and if someone wants to try and keep up with her, they can,” said Casse, who will give a leg up to Dylan Davis. “We’re going to take no prisoners.”
Expected to join La Cara on the front end, among others, are the lightly raced Simply Joking and Fondly.
Trained by Whit Beckman, Simply Joking has had but three starts, winning two, both at the Fair Grounds. She broke in her maiden in the Letellier Memorial Stakes, won the Silverbulletday in her 2025 debut, and was a stubborn second to fellow Oaks entrant Quietside in the Fantasy (G2) after a 10-week layoff, earning a 90 Equibase speed figure.
Fondly is 2-for-2 for trainer Graham Motion and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, breaking her maiden on debut going seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs, then stretching out to win the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs, a half-length ahead of Oaks contender Early On.
Trainer Ken McPeek, who won last year’s Oaks with Thorpedo Anna, has entered Ashland runner-up Take Charge Milady, whose start is under question as she developed a foot abscess early in the week.
Kentucky Oaks betting ...
