Kentucky Derby betting in late November is already circling around one central question: among the current 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard horses, who actually runs the fastest?
Using Equibase speed figures and key final times from the major prep races so far, we can sort through the noise and see which contenders are backing up the hype with real numbers that matter for Kentucky Derby odds and long-range 2026 Kentucky Derby projections.
Equibase Speed Figures (ESF) are designed to put all performances on the same scale, adjusting for distance, track and pace. That makes them one of the most useful tools when you are comparing a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner at Del Mar with a Champagne Stakes winner at Aqueduct or an Iroquois Stakes winner at Churchill Downs.
For early Kentucky Derby betting, you are basically asking two things:
Right now, the early 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard is topped by Ted Noffey with 40 points, followed by Mr. A. P. (15), Intrepido (13), Spice Runner (11), Napoleon Solo (10) and Incredibolt (10). Universe, Brant, Litmus Test, Comport and others complete the early top twenty.
That is the point picture. The speed-figure picture is even more revealing.
Ted Noffey is already the headline act for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. He is undefeated, won the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and then dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and he sits on top of the points standings with a comfortable cushion.
From a pure numbers standpoint:
Our own early-favourites analysis confirms that 114 Equibase Speed Figure puts Ted Noffey near the top of the historical range for elite fall juveniles, which is why he already sits at single-digit prices in many Kentucky Derby odds futures. Right now, Ted Noffey is the fastest horse on the board and the most accomplished, and everything about his profile screams short price in early Kentucky Derby betting.
Mr. A. P. has quietly built a profile that looks very dangerous once the distances stretch out.
The Breeders’ Cup notes credit that runner-up effort with a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 106, while broader season summaries list his top “speed figure” in the low-110s on major scales.
So where does that leave him?
For 2026 Kentucky Derby futures, Mr. A. P. looks like the classic “second wave” colt: he might not dethrone Ted Noffey on raw numbers today, but his foundation and pedigree make him a real threat to erode that gap once the races hit nine and ten furlongs.
Two other important names on the early Kentucky Derby leaderboard are Intrepido and Spice Runner, both graded-stakes winners who have already proven they belong in the conversation.
Intrepido, by Maximus Mischief, owns a graded win in the American Pharoah Stakes and appears on Equibase’s juvenile speed-figure leader pages with a highest Equibase Speed Figure in the low 100s, around 101.
That puts him below Ted Noffey and just behind the very top tier, but very much in the range where improvement from two to three can turn him into a real 2026 Kentucky Derby factor.
Spice Runner, by Gun Runner, earned his Kentucky Derby qualifying points with a late-running score in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at one mile.
On raw clock and figure, Intrepido clearly outpoints Spice Runner for now, but both sit in the “live outsider” category for early Kentucky Derby betting: they do not own the headline 110+ figures, yet they are already stakes winners with obvious room to move forward.
Some of the most interesting speed figures on the leaderboard have come around one turn, and that requires a bit of nuance when folding them into Kentucky Derby odds.
Napoleon Solo announced himself with a devastating maiden win at Saratoga, earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure for a 5¼-length romp, then came back to crush the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct.
So on raw time, Napoleon Solo may look “faster” than some two-turn horses, but that kind of one-turn New York mile does not translate directly to a two-turn Kentucky Derby at a mile and a quarter. He clearly belongs among the upper tier of 2026 Kentucky Derby contenders, but he still has to prove that Champagne speed stretches all the way to 10 furlongs.
Street Sense Stakes winner Incredibolt gave us another important data point at Churchill Downs:
That combination of proven route stamina at Churchill Downs and a solid figure puts him squarely in the “live longshot” camp for early 2026 Kentucky Derby betting.
Universe does not yet have the flashy figure of Ted Noffey or the blazing Champagne time of Napoleon Solo, but he is quietly building the kind of resume that often produces a Kentucky Derby upset.
Horses like Litmus Test, Brant, Comport, Desert Gate, Blackout Time, Talkin and Very Connected round out the current Kentucky Derby leaderboard as “depth” behind the top names. They have not yet posted a standout Equibase Speed Figure, but they have already shown enough ability in graded or listed company to keep them in the early mix.
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If you strip away the hype and look strictly at Equibase Speed Figures and key final times, the answer is straightforward:
From a Kentucky Derby betting perspective, that leaves us with a simple conclusion for now:
The next wave of preps will tell us whether Ted Noffey can keep his numerical edge as the distances stretch out, or whether one of these chasing colts is ready to jump forward and re-write the speed-figure hierarchy on the Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
